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      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  H:\Arbeit\giga\00_publikationen\23 FPA_Hard power of oil\replication_fpa__StrueverWegenast.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:  27 May 2015, 18:21:11

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. ***************************************************************

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. ***************************************************************

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. ***                                                         ***

. 
. ***           The Hard Power of Natural Resource:           ***

. 
. *** Oil and the Outbreak of Militarized Interstate Disputes ***

. 
. ***                                                         ***

. 
. ***             Georg Str�ver & Tim Wegenast                ***

. 
. ***                                                         ***

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. ***************************************************************

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. ***************************************************************

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.               *******************************

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.               ***            I.           *** 

. 
.               ***  Tables in the Article  ***

. 
.     *******************************

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** TABLE 1: OIL AND MID ONSET: UNDIRECTED DYADS (UDD)

. 
. use replication_fpa_StrueverWegenast_udd_short.dta, clear

. 
. local  controls_udd "dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3"

. 
. 
. 
. eststo: qui logit onset `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset L_PC_RESERVES_higher `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset net_oil_exports_value2_higher_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 and cc2 i~D                                                                                                                
Lower level of dya~e       -10.87+         -12.38+         -13.84+         -13.37+         -5.724          -4.507          -11.75   
                          (6.073)         (6.969)         (7.924)         (6.865)         (4.013)         (3.843)         (9.241)   

lower dem score of~e      -0.0236         -0.0281         -0.0150         -0.0185          0.0244        -0.00984        -0.00991   
                         (0.0234)        (0.0266)        (0.0269)        (0.0263)        (0.0276)        (0.0281)        (0.0350)   

difference between~t       0.0374***       0.0330***       0.0382***       0.0378***       0.0415**        0.0310*         0.0496** 
                        (0.00865)        (0.0100)        (0.0101)        (0.0100)        (0.0128)        (0.0125)        (0.0167)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.299***       -1.763***       -1.734***       -1.853***       -1.843***       -1.787***       -1.854***
                          (0.389)         (0.438)         (0.445)         (0.413)         (0.466)         (0.476)         (0.556)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.500**        -0.459**        -0.496**        -0.303+         -0.253          -0.387+         -0.614** 
                          (0.161)         (0.166)         (0.168)         (0.161)         (0.221)         (0.220)         (0.214)   

1 if the two state~         0.662***        0.499**         0.525***        0.524***        0.436**         0.356*          0.371*  
                          (0.169)         (0.152)         (0.151)         (0.149)         (0.156)         (0.168)         (0.175)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.147***       -0.154***       -0.157***       -0.146***       -0.159***       -0.155***       -0.189***
                         (0.0284)        (0.0286)        (0.0287)        (0.0283)        (0.0329)        (0.0328)        (0.0365)   

onset_t1                   -0.359***       -0.362***       -0.360***       -0.352***       -0.347***       -0.350***       -0.316***
                         (0.0256)        (0.0293)        (0.0291)        (0.0289)        (0.0398)        (0.0394)        (0.0431)   

onset_t2                   0.0121***       0.0118***       0.0117***       0.0113***       0.0119***       0.0119***      0.00915***
                        (0.00138)       (0.00158)       (0.00156)       (0.00155)       (0.00217)       (0.00216)       (0.00209)   

onset_t3                -0.000124***    -0.000116***    -0.000116***    -0.000111***    -0.000130***    -0.000129***   -0.0000805** 
                      (0.0000203)     (0.0000227)     (0.0000225)     (0.0000222)     (0.0000319)     (0.0000320)     (0.0000275)   

oil_val~OP_higher_l1                   0.00000712                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000229)                                                                                   

oil_val~DP_higher_l1                                      0.00588*                                                                  
                                                        (0.00265)                                                                   

oil_valu~1_higher_l1                                                       0.0704**                                                 
                                                                         (0.0253)                                                   

Higher level of lo~                                                                         0.186***                                
                                                                                         (0.0509)                                   

Higher level of pc~t                                                                                    -0.000191                   
                                                                                                        (0.00252)                   

net_oil_expor~her_l1                                                                                                    0.0000123*  
                                                                                                                     (0.00000617)   

Constant                   -0.402           0.228          0.0948          -1.366+         -0.353           0.332           0.199   
                          (0.405)         (0.453)         (0.468)         (0.774)         (0.572)         (0.520)         (0.583)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                34424           29688           29688           29686           17922           17933           14740   
chi2                       1139.9          1034.7          1057.0          1076.0           770.2           686.9           583.4   
r2_p                        0.229           0.248           0.249           0.251           0.264           0.258           0.263   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** FIGURE 1: PREDICTIVE MARGINS OF OIL ON MID ONSET (UNDIRECTED DYADS)

. 
. qui logit onset oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)

. do "C:\Users\struever\AppData\Local\Temp\6\STD00000000.tmp"

. mcp oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1, var1(20) ci ///
>         plotopts(yscale(range(0 .08)) ylabel(0(.02).08) ytick(0(.01).08) ///
>         xtitle("Oil production/GDP, higher level", size(small)) subtitle("(a)", ring(1) pos(10)) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ///
>         saving(plot1.gph, replace)) sh
margins , at( oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1=( .0000387 9.543694496155 19.08735084534 28.63100624084 38.1746635437 47.71831893921 57.26197433472 66.80562591553 76.3492889404
> 3 85.89294433594 95.43659973145 104.980255127 114.5239105225 124.067565918 133.6112213135 143.154876709 152.6985321045 162.2421875 171.7858428955 181.329498291) ) 
(note: file plot1.gph not found)
(file plot1.gph saved)

. 
end of do-file

. qui logit onset oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)

. do "C:\Users\struever\AppData\Local\Temp\6\STD00000000.tmp"

. mcp oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1, var1(20) ci ///
>         plotopts(yscale(range(0 .08)) ylabel(0(.02).08) ytick(0(.01).08) ///
>         xtitle("Oil production (log), higher level", size(small)) subtitle("(b)", ring(1) pos(10)) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ///
>         saving(plot2.gph, replace)) sh
margins , at( oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1=( 8.177398681641 9.105047225952 10.03269577026 10.96034431458 11.88799285889 12.8156414032 13.74328994751 14.67093849182 15.598
> 58703613 16.52623558044 17.45388412476 18.38153266907 19.30918121338 20.23682975769 21.164478302 22.09212684631 23.01977539063 23.94742393494 24.87507247925 25.80271911
> 621) ) 
(note: file plot2.gph not found)
(file plot2.gph saved)

. 
end of do-file

. qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)

. do "C:\Users\struever\AppData\Local\Temp\6\STD00000000.tmp"

. mcp L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher, var1(20) ci ///
>         plotopts(yscale(range(0 .08)) ylabel(0(.02).08) ytick(0(.01).08) ///
>         xtitle("Oil reserves (log), higher level", size(small)) subtitle("(c)", ring(1) pos(10)) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ///
>         saving(plot3.gph, replace)) sh
margins , at( L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher=( .0099502997473 .3025977015495 .5952451229095 .8878925442696 1.18053996563 1.473187327385 1.76583468914 2.058482170105 2.35112953186
>  2.643776893616 2.936424255371 3.229071855545 3.5217192173 3.814366579056 4.10701417923 4.399661540985 4.69230890274 4.984956264496 5.277603626251 5.570250988007) ) 
(note: file plot3.gph not found)
(file plot3.gph saved)

. 
end of do-file

. qui logit onset net_oil_exports_value2_higher_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)

. do "C:\Users\struever\AppData\Local\Temp\6\STD00000000.tmp"

. mcp net_oil_exports_value2_higher_l1 if net_oil_exports_value2_higher_l1>0, var1(20) ci ///
>         plotopts(yscale(range(0 .08)) ylabel(0(.02).08) ytick(0(.01).08) ///
>         xtitle("Net oil exports, higher level", size(small)) subtitle("(d)", ring(1) pos(10)) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ///
>         saving(plot4.gph, replace)) sh
margins , at( net_oil_exports_value2_higher_l1=( .1095236986876 3528.194824219 7056.280273438 10584.36523438 14112.45019531 17640.53515625 21168.62109375 24696.70703125 2
> 8224.79101563 31752.87695313 35280.9609375 38809.046875 42337.1328125 45865.21875 49393.3046875 52921.390625 56449.47265625 59977.55859375 63505.64453125 67033.7265625)
>  ) 
(note: file plot4.gph not found)
(file plot4.gph saved)

.         
. gr combine plot1.gph plot2.gph ///
>                    plot3.gph plot4.gph ///
>                    , col(2) row(3) graphregion(color(white)) note("95% confidence intervals shaded in grey.", size(small))  ///
>                    graphregion(margin(zero))

. 
. 
. *** TABLE 2: OIL AND MID ONSET: DIRECTED DYADS (DD)   
. use replication_fpa_StrueverWegenast_dd_short.dta, clear

. 
end of do-file

. local  controls_dd "c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor con
> tigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3"

. 
. est clear

. 
. 
. 
. eststo: qui logit onset `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_POP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_POP_c2_l1 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_GDP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_GDP_c2_l1 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2_l1 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1 L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset L_PC_RESERVES_c1 L_PC_RESERVES_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1 net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 initiated~t                                                                                                                
dyadic trade depen~1        1.019           0.909           0.598           0.722          -0.135           0.847          -0.456   
                          (1.224)         (1.230)         (1.256)         (1.134)         (1.170)         (1.410)         (2.206)   

dyadic trade depen~2       -1.422          -1.109          -1.472          -1.178          -0.713           0.176          -4.421+  
                          (2.842)         (2.585)         (2.503)         (2.538)         (2.111)         (2.334)         (2.667)   

institutionalized ~c       -0.102***      -0.0819**       -0.0772**       -0.0846**       -0.0921**       -0.0984**       -0.0330   
                         (0.0295)        (0.0290)        (0.0290)        (0.0298)        (0.0310)        (0.0310)        (0.0421)   

institutionalized ~c       0.0567*         0.0510*         0.0568*         0.0468+         0.0874***       0.0667**       -0.0144   
                         (0.0254)        (0.0243)        (0.0245)        (0.0251)        (0.0263)        (0.0254)        (0.0307)   

difference between~t       0.0520***       0.0526***       0.0538***       0.0496***       0.0422***       0.0422***       0.0493***
                        (0.00694)       (0.00714)       (0.00709)       (0.00700)       (0.00737)       (0.00746)        (0.0109)   

Interaction of c1'~r      0.00435*        0.00355*        0.00356*        0.00356*        0.00495**       0.00433*       0.000817   
                        (0.00176)       (0.00175)       (0.00174)       (0.00181)       (0.00178)       (0.00175)       (0.00248)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.449***       -1.679***       -1.701***       -1.781***       -1.459***       -1.299***       -2.230***
                          (0.374)         (0.387)         (0.386)         (0.373)         (0.347)         (0.377)         (0.507)   

initiators p(win) ~         0.529***        0.550***        0.550***        0.382*          0.433*          0.455**         0.908***
                          (0.159)         (0.161)         (0.162)         (0.191)         (0.191)         (0.170)         (0.242)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.610***       -0.590***       -0.623***       -0.429**        -0.319*         -0.540***       -0.765***
                          (0.148)         (0.146)         (0.147)         (0.150)         (0.154)         (0.155)         (0.196)   

1 if the two state~         0.824***        0.705***        0.733***        0.728***        0.756***        0.702***        0.524** 
                          (0.153)         (0.136)         (0.136)         (0.133)         (0.145)         (0.156)         (0.165)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.170***       -0.179***       -0.181***       -0.166***       -0.187***       -0.190***       -0.233***
                         (0.0264)        (0.0264)        (0.0264)        (0.0268)        (0.0268)        (0.0281)        (0.0306)   

onset_t1                   -0.314***       -0.309***       -0.307***       -0.300***       -0.289***       -0.304***       -0.262***
                         (0.0227)        (0.0234)        (0.0232)        (0.0232)        (0.0266)        (0.0267)        (0.0364)   

onset_t2                   0.0104***       0.0100***      0.00992***      0.00959***      0.00941***       0.0101***      0.00770***
                        (0.00115)       (0.00119)       (0.00118)       (0.00118)       (0.00140)       (0.00140)       (0.00171)   

onset_t3                -0.000104***   -0.0000990***   -0.0000978***   -0.0000944***   -0.0000958***    -0.000102***   -0.0000700** 
                      (0.0000160)     (0.0000165)     (0.0000163)     (0.0000164)     (0.0000198)     (0.0000199)     (0.0000220)   

oil_value_nom_P~1_l1                   0.00000246                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000335)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_P~2_l1                    0.0000219                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000273)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~1_l1                                      0.00433                                                                   
                                                        (0.00274)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~2_l1                                      0.00680+                                                                  
                                                        (0.00353)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~1_l1                                                       0.0248***                                                
                                                                        (0.00687)                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~2_l1                                                      0.00686                                                   
                                                                        (0.00628)                                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.194***                                
                                                                                         (0.0356)                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.174***                                
                                                                                         (0.0389)                                   

per capita version~S                                                                                     -0.00644                   
                                                                                                        (0.00568)                   

per capita version~S                                                                                      0.00890***                
                                                                                                        (0.00242)                   

net_oil_exports~1_l1                                                                                                  -0.00000583   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000677)   

net_oil_exports~2_l1                                                                                                  -0.00000988+  
                                                                                                                     (0.00000564)   

Constant                   -1.245**        -1.014*         -1.082**        -1.396**        -1.778***       -1.304**        -0.397   
                          (0.398)         (0.411)         (0.414)         (0.429)         (0.429)         (0.431)         (0.513)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                73054           67076           67076           67076           57784           57784           31008   
chi2                       1505.8          1474.0          1556.5          1592.8          1425.5          1297.2           740.2   
r2_p                        0.200           0.205           0.206           0.210           0.209           0.197           0.223   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. do "C:\Users\struever\AppData\Local\Temp\6\STD00000000.tmp"

. *** CORRELATIONS
. use replication_fpa_StrueverWegenast_m_short.dta, clear

. 
. * Section Weak State-Society Linkages
. corr oil_value_nom_POP f1.lnontaxrev2 taxgdp_best
(obs=2764)

             |                 F.         
             | oil_v~OP lnonta~2 taxgdp~t
-------------+---------------------------
oil_value~OP |   1.0000
 lnontaxrev2 |
         F1. |   0.5103   1.0000
 taxgdp_best |  -0.1633  -0.3776   1.0000


. 
. * Militarization and Resource Wars
. corr oil_value_nom milex
(obs=6253)

             | oil_va~m    milex
-------------+------------------
oil_value_~m |   1.0000
       milex |   0.6825   1.0000


. 
. 
. *** SELECTED ROBUSTNESS CHECKS MENTIONED IN THE MAIN TEXT
. 
. *** Models of Table 1: Undirected Dyads
. use replication_fpa_StrueverWegenast_udd_short.dta, clear

. 
. * Excl. U.S. and Russia 
. eststo: qui logit onset dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==
> 1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 on
> set_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 on
> set_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 o
> nset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t
> 2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset L_PC_RESERVES_higher dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 
> onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset net_oil_exports_value2_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_
> t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 and cc2 i~D                                                                                                                
Lower level of dya~e       -13.48+         -16.30+         -17.66          -16.81+         -6.378+         -6.401+         -15.42   
                          (7.327)         (9.713)         (11.04)         (10.01)         (3.825)         (3.669)         (15.34)   

lower dem score of~e      -0.0272         -0.0334         -0.0217         -0.0270          0.0205        -0.00715         -0.0164   
                         (0.0264)        (0.0304)        (0.0306)        (0.0305)        (0.0316)        (0.0310)        (0.0382)   

difference between~t       0.0315***       0.0240*         0.0291**        0.0267**        0.0252+         0.0167          0.0329*  
                        (0.00884)       (0.00992)       (0.00986)       (0.00993)        (0.0133)        (0.0133)        (0.0164)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.143**        -1.650***       -1.615**        -1.666***       -1.867***       -1.910***       -1.565*  
                          (0.415)         (0.492)         (0.497)         (0.480)         (0.547)         (0.558)         (0.654)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.330+         -0.307          -0.342+         -0.287          -0.107          -0.159          -0.600+  
                          (0.191)         (0.195)         (0.201)         (0.190)         (0.295)         (0.290)         (0.311)   

1 if the two state~         0.717***        0.530**         0.562***        0.550***        0.415*          0.338+          0.442*  
                          (0.191)         (0.167)         (0.166)         (0.166)         (0.165)         (0.177)         (0.194)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.195***       -0.205***       -0.207***       -0.202***       -0.206***       -0.209***       -0.282***
                         (0.0384)        (0.0386)        (0.0392)        (0.0381)        (0.0491)        (0.0488)        (0.0503)   

onset_t1                   -0.370***       -0.370***       -0.369***       -0.368***       -0.388***       -0.390***       -0.351***
                         (0.0283)        (0.0323)        (0.0324)        (0.0323)        (0.0460)        (0.0455)        (0.0463)   

onset_t2                   0.0133***       0.0128***       0.0128***       0.0127***       0.0151***       0.0150***       0.0113***
                        (0.00164)       (0.00189)       (0.00188)       (0.00187)       (0.00264)       (0.00262)       (0.00245)   

onset_t3                -0.000144***    -0.000136***    -0.000136***    -0.000135***    -0.000186***    -0.000185***    -0.000109** 
                      (0.0000255)     (0.0000290)     (0.0000289)     (0.0000288)     (0.0000409)     (0.0000408)     (0.0000342)   

oil_val~OP_higher_l1                  -0.00000652                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000244)                                                                                   

oil_val~DP_higher_l1                                      0.00409                                                                   
                                                        (0.00269)                                                                   

oil_valu~1_higher_l1                                                       0.0261                                                   
                                                                         (0.0262)                                                   

Higher level of lo~                                                                         0.120*                                  
                                                                                         (0.0526)                                   

Higher level of pc~t                                                                                    -0.000520                   
                                                                                                        (0.00260)                   

net_oil_expor~her_l1                                                                                                   0.00000713   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000712)   

Constant                   -0.688          0.0391         -0.0856          -0.546          -0.146           0.362           0.115   
                          (0.443)         (0.510)         (0.525)         (0.808)         (0.673)         (0.625)         (0.698)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                27651           23381           23381           23379           12996           13007           11558   
chi2                        876.3           765.7           821.0           759.2           551.1           479.9           353.4   
r2_p                        0.248           0.271           0.272           0.271           0.302           0.299           0.286   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. eststo clear

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfat
> al_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance on
> set_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance on
> set_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance o
> nset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_n
> onfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal L_PC_RESERVES_higher dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_non
> fatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal net_oil_exports_value2_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distan
> ce onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 a~n    1 if cc1 a~n    1 if cc1 a~n    1 if cc1 a~n    1 if cc1 a~n    1 if cc1 a~n    1 if cc1 a~n   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 and cc2 i~n                                                                                                                
Lower level of dya~e       -11.94          -13.79          -15.10          -14.50          -4.909          -5.115          -12.57   
                          (8.662)         (9.880)         (11.35)         (10.15)         (3.947)         (3.788)         (14.23)   

lower dem score of~e      -0.0151         -0.0221        -0.00984         -0.0110          0.0145         -0.0172         0.00702   
                         (0.0307)        (0.0334)        (0.0341)        (0.0335)        (0.0363)        (0.0348)        (0.0414)   

difference between~t       0.0386***       0.0291**        0.0342**        0.0332**        0.0283+         0.0186          0.0453*  
                         (0.0101)        (0.0106)        (0.0107)        (0.0106)        (0.0147)        (0.0145)        (0.0185)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.214*         -1.680**        -1.644**        -1.726***       -2.233***       -2.340***       -1.937** 
                          (0.481)         (0.530)         (0.533)         (0.507)         (0.600)         (0.632)         (0.726)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.408+         -0.392+         -0.428+         -0.344          -0.361          -0.422          -0.774*  
                          (0.228)         (0.231)         (0.236)         (0.220)         (0.280)         (0.278)         (0.307)   

1 if the two state~         0.532*          0.398*          0.421*          0.417*          0.246           0.161           0.238   
                          (0.210)         (0.183)         (0.184)         (0.181)         (0.176)         (0.189)         (0.205)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.233***       -0.235***       -0.237***       -0.230***       -0.244***       -0.246***       -0.311***
                         (0.0419)        (0.0423)        (0.0427)        (0.0412)        (0.0480)        (0.0481)        (0.0508)   

onset_nonfatal_t1          -0.349***       -0.344***       -0.342***       -0.336***       -0.355***       -0.358***       -0.348***
                         (0.0346)        (0.0374)        (0.0375)        (0.0368)        (0.0498)        (0.0496)        (0.0486)   

onset_nonfatal_t2          0.0128***       0.0124***       0.0123***       0.0120***       0.0134***       0.0134***       0.0120***
                        (0.00182)       (0.00201)       (0.00201)       (0.00197)       (0.00272)       (0.00272)       (0.00249)   

onset_nonfatal_t3       -0.000140***    -0.000135***    -0.000135***    -0.000132***    -0.000157***    -0.000155***    -0.000124***
                      (0.0000262)     (0.0000289)     (0.0000288)     (0.0000284)     (0.0000398)     (0.0000398)     (0.0000342)   

oil_val~OP_higher_l1                   0.00000768                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000242)                                                                                   

oil_val~DP_higher_l1                                      0.00531+                                                                  
                                                        (0.00303)                                                                   

oil_valu~1_higher_l1                                                       0.0533+                                                  
                                                                         (0.0291)                                                   

Higher level of lo~                                                                         0.136*                                  
                                                                                         (0.0609)                                   

Higher level of pc~t                                                                                    -0.000302                   
                                                                                                        (0.00295)                   

net_oil_expor~her_l1                                                                                                    0.0000107   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000838)   

Constant                   -0.857+         -0.195          -0.324          -1.357+         0.0882           0.714           0.239   
                          (0.497)         (0.549)         (0.566)         (0.822)         (0.722)         (0.666)         (0.772)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                27532           23305           23305           23303           12953           12964           11522   
chi2                        541.9           519.1           555.5           531.2           469.9           413.1           285.9   
r2_p                        0.199           0.214           0.215           0.216           0.244           0.241           0.242   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. eststo clear

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 ons
> et_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset
> _fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset
> _fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onse
> t_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_fata
> l_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal L_PC_RESERVES_higher dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_fatal_
> t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal net_oil_exports_value2_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance 
> onset_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 a~t    1 if cc1 a~t    1 if cc1 a~t    1 if cc1 a~t    1 if cc1 a~t    1 if cc1 a~t    1 if cc1 a~t   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 and cc2 i~t                                                                                                                
Lower level of dya~e       -56.24          -166.0          -173.1          -172.8          -164.0          -151.6          -132.2   
                          (37.35)         (113.8)         (115.0)         (115.6)         (155.4)         (155.9)         (128.4)   

lower dem score of~e      -0.0179         -0.0153        -0.00556        -0.00566           0.127+         0.0849         -0.0180   
                         (0.0516)        (0.0667)        (0.0661)        (0.0685)        (0.0708)        (0.0722)         (0.107)   

difference between~t       0.0514**        0.0606**        0.0652**        0.0654**        0.0809*         0.0709*         0.0398   
                         (0.0177)        (0.0223)        (0.0220)        (0.0228)        (0.0327)        (0.0331)        (0.0367)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.151          -1.683          -1.719+         -1.675+         -0.868          -0.622          -1.642   
                          (0.786)         (1.036)         (1.043)         (0.979)         (1.156)         (1.157)         (1.102)   

1 if both states i~m        0.159           0.251           0.235           0.220           27.71***        27.46***        0.103   
                          (0.402)         (0.402)         (0.408)         (0.421)         (3.228)         (3.230)         (0.747)   

1 if the two state~         3.355***        2.813***        2.871***        2.877***        2.932**         2.905**         2.844** 
                          (0.690)         (0.698)         (0.698)         (0.698)         (0.967)         (0.960)         (0.964)   

log distance betwe~2       0.0676         0.01000          0.0128          0.0110           3.007***        2.982***      -0.0912   
                          (0.121)         (0.125)         (0.126)         (0.126)         (0.326)         (0.327)         (0.207)   

onset_fatal_t1             -0.235***       -0.226**        -0.228**        -0.229**        -0.253**        -0.255**      -0.00665   
                         (0.0631)        (0.0768)        (0.0773)        (0.0786)        (0.0883)        (0.0893)         (0.106)   

onset_fatal_t2            0.00714*        0.00493         0.00501         0.00508          0.0102*         0.0103*       -0.00342   
                        (0.00319)       (0.00364)       (0.00365)       (0.00371)       (0.00470)       (0.00480)       (0.00476)   

onset_fatal_t3         -0.0000665      -0.0000263      -0.0000274      -0.0000280       -0.000155*      -0.000157*      0.0000602   
                      (0.0000452)     (0.0000484)     (0.0000485)     (0.0000489)     (0.0000708)     (0.0000745)     (0.0000594)   

oil_val~OP_higher_l1                    -0.000108                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000891)                                                                                   

oil_val~DP_higher_l1                                    -0.000868                                                                   
                                                        (0.00573)                                                                   

oil_valu~1_higher_l1                                                      -0.0131                                                   
                                                                         (0.0615)                                                   

Higher level of lo~                                                                         0.182*                                  
                                                                                         (0.0841)                                   

Higher level of pc~t                                                                                      0.00438                   
                                                                                                        (0.00541)                   

net_oil_expor~her_l1                                                                                                   0.00000164   
                                                                                                                      (0.0000157)   

Constant                   -5.364***       -4.203**        -4.277**        -4.050+         -33.01***       -32.47***       -4.942*  
                          (1.189)         (1.344)         (1.350)         (2.075)         (3.445)         (3.488)         (1.950)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                27532           23305           23305           23303           12953           12964           11522   
chi2                        267.1           270.2           288.2           269.2           140.8           137.0           345.0   
r2_p                        0.203           0.250           0.249           0.249           0.320           0.316           0.229   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. eststo clear

. 
. * Rare event logit
. eststo: qui relogit onset dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel
> ==1
(est1 stored)

. eststo: qui relogit onset oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 
> onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1
(est2 stored)

. eststo: qui relogit onset oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 
> onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1
(est3 stored)

. eststo: qui relogit onset oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1
>  onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1
(est4 stored)

. eststo: qui relogit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset
> _t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1
(est5 stored)

. eststo: qui relogit onset L_PC_RESERVES_higher dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t
> 2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1
(est6 stored)

. eststo: qui relogit onset net_oil_exports_value2_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onse
> t_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1
(est7 stored)

. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lower level of dya~e       -9.641          -10.68          -12.04          -11.59          -3.941          -2.984          -8.684   
                          (7.589)         (9.206)         (10.15)         (9.370)         (7.558)         (6.758)         (12.19)   

lower dem score of~e      -0.0239         -0.0284         -0.0155         -0.0190          0.0234         -0.0101         -0.0115   
                         (0.0165)        (0.0195)        (0.0203)        (0.0195)        (0.0241)        (0.0228)        (0.0284)   

difference between~t       0.0373***       0.0329***       0.0380***       0.0376***       0.0412***       0.0309**        0.0491***
                        (0.00719)       (0.00838)       (0.00862)       (0.00834)        (0.0106)        (0.0102)        (0.0145)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.292***       -1.753***       -1.723***       -1.843***       -1.832***       -1.777***       -1.829***
                          (0.306)         (0.356)         (0.358)         (0.352)         (0.432)         (0.439)         (0.497)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.500***       -0.458**        -0.494**        -0.302+         -0.252          -0.387*         -0.606** 
                          (0.143)         (0.152)         (0.153)         (0.157)         (0.192)         (0.188)         (0.193)   

1 if the two state~         0.658***        0.497***        0.522***        0.521***        0.431**         0.354*          0.364*  
                          (0.114)         (0.125)         (0.125)         (0.124)         (0.155)         (0.157)         (0.167)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.147***       -0.153***       -0.157***       -0.146***       -0.158***       -0.155***       -0.188***
                         (0.0210)        (0.0222)        (0.0224)        (0.0225)        (0.0276)        (0.0272)        (0.0300)   

onset_t1                   -0.358***       -0.361***       -0.359***       -0.351***       -0.344***       -0.347***       -0.314***
                         (0.0230)        (0.0262)        (0.0261)        (0.0261)        (0.0348)        (0.0350)        (0.0380)   

onset_t2                   0.0121***       0.0117***       0.0116***       0.0112***       0.0117***       0.0117***      0.00905***
                        (0.00130)       (0.00145)       (0.00144)       (0.00144)       (0.00200)       (0.00201)       (0.00190)   

onset_t3                -0.000122***    -0.000115***    -0.000114***    -0.000110***    -0.000127***    -0.000126***   -0.0000790** 
                      (0.0000196)     (0.0000213)     (0.0000212)     (0.0000211)     (0.0000304)     (0.0000307)     (0.0000255)   

oil_val~OP_higher_l1                   0.00000980                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000178)                                                                                   

oil_val~DP_higher_l1                                      0.00593**                                                                 
                                                        (0.00226)                                                                   

oil_valu~1_higher_l1                                                       0.0700***                                                
                                                                         (0.0185)                                                   

Higher level of lo~                                                                         0.184***                                
                                                                                         (0.0412)                                   

Higher level of pc~t                                                                                     0.000432                   
                                                                                                        (0.00359)                   

net_oil_expor~her_l1                                                                                                    0.0000127*  
                                                                                                                     (0.00000607)   

Constant                   -0.403           0.221          0.0896          -1.360*         -0.350           0.328           0.185   
                          (0.330)         (0.382)         (0.388)         (0.568)         (0.504)         (0.471)         (0.536)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                34424           29688           29688           29686           17922           17933           14740   
chi2                                                                                                                                
r2_p                                                                                                                                
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. eststo clear

. 
. * Post-1973
. eststo: qui logit onset dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==
> 1 & year>=1973, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 on
> set_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & year>=1973, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 on
> set_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & year>=1973, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 o
> nset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & year>=1973, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t
> 2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & year>=1973, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset L_PC_RESERVES_higher dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 
> onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & year>=1973, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset net_oil_exports_value2_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_
> t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & year>=1973, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 and cc2 i~D                                                                                                                
Lower level of dya~e       -9.887          -11.58          -13.12          -12.67+         -6.243          -5.069          -11.75   
                          (6.168)         (7.586)         (8.751)         (7.342)         (4.073)         (3.875)         (9.241)   

lower dem score of~e      -0.0205         -0.0312         -0.0163         -0.0151          0.0215        -0.00905        -0.00991   
                         (0.0271)        (0.0302)        (0.0310)        (0.0297)        (0.0302)        (0.0303)        (0.0350)   

difference between~t       0.0404***       0.0345**        0.0403**        0.0387**        0.0377**        0.0291*         0.0496** 
                         (0.0107)        (0.0121)        (0.0123)        (0.0118)        (0.0141)        (0.0141)        (0.0167)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.571***       -1.673***       -1.646**        -1.796***       -1.719***       -1.662**        -1.854***
                          (0.437)         (0.502)         (0.510)         (0.475)         (0.493)         (0.509)         (0.556)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.508*         -0.466*         -0.512*         -0.230          -0.268          -0.433+         -0.614** 
                          (0.203)         (0.207)         (0.210)         (0.224)         (0.232)         (0.228)         (0.214)   

1 if the two state~         0.570***        0.495**         0.529***        0.547***        0.448**         0.386*          0.371*  
                          (0.152)         (0.161)         (0.160)         (0.154)         (0.165)         (0.172)         (0.175)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.172***       -0.172***       -0.177***       -0.162***       -0.165***       -0.164***       -0.189***
                         (0.0331)        (0.0335)        (0.0334)        (0.0346)        (0.0362)        (0.0360)        (0.0365)   

onset_t1                   -0.315***       -0.321***       -0.321***       -0.316***       -0.316***       -0.319***       -0.316***
                         (0.0306)        (0.0354)        (0.0351)        (0.0349)        (0.0412)        (0.0409)        (0.0431)   

onset_t2                  0.00974***      0.00978***      0.00982***      0.00971***       0.0105***       0.0104***      0.00915***
                        (0.00157)       (0.00178)       (0.00176)       (0.00175)       (0.00220)       (0.00219)       (0.00209)   

onset_t3               -0.0000924***   -0.0000919***   -0.0000926***   -0.0000925***    -0.000113***    -0.000112***   -0.0000805** 
                      (0.0000218)     (0.0000243)     (0.0000241)     (0.0000240)     (0.0000320)     (0.0000320)     (0.0000275)   

oil_val~OP_higher_l1                  -0.00000196                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000234)                                                                                   

oil_val~DP_higher_l1                                      0.00512+                                                                  
                                                        (0.00288)                                                                   

oil_valu~1_higher_l1                                                       0.0977**                                                 
                                                                         (0.0321)                                                   

Higher level of lo~                                                                         0.175***                                
                                                                                         (0.0527)                                   

Higher level of pc~t                                                                                      0.00438                   
                                                                                                        (0.00511)                   

net_oil_expor~her_l1                                                                                                    0.0000123*  
                                                                                                                     (0.00000617)   

Constant                   -0.124           0.134        -0.00752          -2.172*         -0.397           0.229           0.199   
                          (0.467)         (0.526)         (0.548)         (0.978)         (0.611)         (0.549)         (0.583)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                25479           23320           23320           23318           15379           15390           14740   
chi2                        874.5           789.4           825.5           852.5           744.2           651.5           583.4   
r2_p                        0.242           0.253           0.254           0.257           0.267           0.262           0.263   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. eststo clear

. 
. * Exclusion of Gulf War 1990/1991
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 on
> set_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & cwongonm!=3957, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 on
> set_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & cwongonm!=3957, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 o
> nset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & cwongonm!=3957, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t
> 2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & cwongonm!=3957, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset L_PC_RESERVES_higher dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 
> onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & cwongonm!=3957, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset net_oil_exports_value2_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_
> t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & cwongonm!=3957, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)   
                     1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 and cc2 i~D                                                                                                
oil_val~OP_higher_l1   0.00000631                                                                                   
                      (0.0000230)                                                                                   

Lower level of dya~e       -12.47+         -13.85+         -13.45+         -5.760          -4.555          -11.98   
                          (7.059)         (7.967)         (6.964)         (4.048)         (3.864)         (9.528)   

lower dem score of~e      -0.0287         -0.0163         -0.0191          0.0229         -0.0106         -0.0120   
                         (0.0266)        (0.0269)        (0.0263)        (0.0277)        (0.0281)        (0.0349)   

difference between~t       0.0321**        0.0371***       0.0368***       0.0400**        0.0295*         0.0471** 
                        (0.00996)        (0.0101)        (0.0100)        (0.0129)        (0.0125)        (0.0164)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.743***       -1.717***       -1.833***       -1.821***       -1.759***       -1.833** 
                          (0.441)         (0.447)         (0.416)         (0.469)         (0.479)         (0.562)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.462**        -0.498**        -0.310+         -0.263          -0.393+         -0.626** 
                          (0.165)         (0.168)         (0.161)         (0.220)         (0.219)         (0.213)   

1 if the two state~         0.496**         0.520***        0.521***        0.430**         0.352*          0.364*  
                          (0.152)         (0.151)         (0.149)         (0.156)         (0.168)         (0.175)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.155***       -0.158***       -0.147***       -0.160***       -0.157***       -0.191***
                         (0.0285)        (0.0286)        (0.0281)        (0.0329)        (0.0327)        (0.0357)   

onset_t1                   -0.362***       -0.360***       -0.352***       -0.347***       -0.350***       -0.316***
                         (0.0292)        (0.0290)        (0.0288)        (0.0397)        (0.0394)        (0.0429)   

onset_t2                   0.0118***       0.0117***       0.0113***       0.0119***       0.0119***      0.00918***
                        (0.00158)       (0.00156)       (0.00155)       (0.00217)       (0.00216)       (0.00209)   

onset_t3                -0.000117***    -0.000116***    -0.000112***    -0.000130***    -0.000129***   -0.0000810** 
                      (0.0000227)     (0.0000225)     (0.0000223)     (0.0000319)     (0.0000320)     (0.0000276)   

oil_val~DP_higher_l1                      0.00556*                                                                  
                                        (0.00269)                                                                   

oil_valu~1_higher_l1                                       0.0688**                                                 
                                                         (0.0252)                                                   

Higher level of lo~                                                         0.181***                                
                                                                         (0.0511)                                   

Higher level of pc~t                                                                    -0.000331                   
                                                                                        (0.00254)                   

net_oil_expor~her_l1                                                                                    0.0000114+  
                                                                                                     (0.00000629)   

Constant                    0.222          0.0973          -1.335+         -0.337           0.325           0.219   
                          (0.455)         (0.469)         (0.771)         (0.573)         (0.522)         (0.582)   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                29677           29677           29675           17911           17922           14729   
chi2                       1026.5          1046.3          1065.5           745.1           676.1           572.5   
r2_p                        0.247           0.248           0.250           0.263           0.257           0.261   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. eststo clear

. 
. 
. *** Models of Table 2: Directed Dyads
. use replication_fpa_StrueverWegenast_dd_short.dta, clear

. 
. * Excl. U.S. and Russia 
. eststo: qui logit onset c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor
>  contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_POP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_POP_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff
> _l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_GDP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_GDP_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff
> _l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdi
> ff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1 L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanc
> eofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset L_PC_RESERVES_c1 L_PC_RESERVES_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceoff
> orce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1 net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_po
> lity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 initiated~t                                                                                                                
dyadic trade depen~1       -2.230          -2.191          -2.708          -2.173          -1.316          -1.190          -5.251   
                          (2.601)         (2.681)         (2.681)         (2.698)         (2.179)         (2.257)         (5.048)   

dyadic trade depen~2       -7.033*         -6.392+         -6.721+         -6.462+         -4.096          -4.125          -5.639   
                          (3.569)         (3.505)         (3.605)         (3.474)         (2.788)         (2.907)         (5.567)   

institutionalized ~c      -0.0589         -0.0245         -0.0212         -0.0262         -0.0377         -0.0382          0.0545   
                         (0.0365)        (0.0319)        (0.0321)        (0.0334)        (0.0377)        (0.0378)        (0.0405)   

institutionalized ~c       0.0302          0.0135          0.0189         0.00991          0.0461          0.0297         -0.0679+  
                         (0.0321)        (0.0284)        (0.0286)        (0.0298)        (0.0332)        (0.0331)        (0.0365)   

difference between~t       0.0436***       0.0436***       0.0450***       0.0415***       0.0331***       0.0316***       0.0438***
                        (0.00763)       (0.00780)       (0.00775)       (0.00766)       (0.00793)       (0.00807)        (0.0129)   

Interaction of c1'~r      0.00129       -0.000271       -0.000194       -0.000287        0.000891        0.000197        -0.00506+  
                        (0.00216)       (0.00193)       (0.00194)       (0.00204)       (0.00221)       (0.00220)       (0.00264)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.088**        -1.318***       -1.332***       -1.443***       -1.193**        -1.059**        -1.724** 
                          (0.367)         (0.382)         (0.380)         (0.374)         (0.363)         (0.384)         (0.544)   

initiators p(win) ~         0.521**         0.594**         0.597**         0.488*          0.405+          0.424*          0.677*  
                          (0.185)         (0.186)         (0.186)         (0.218)         (0.219)         (0.201)         (0.284)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.495**        -0.485**        -0.517**        -0.393*         -0.247          -0.379*         -0.689*  
                          (0.178)         (0.180)         (0.183)         (0.182)         (0.182)         (0.188)         (0.280)   

1 if the two state~         0.929***        0.807***        0.830***        0.824***        0.815***        0.769***        0.594***
                          (0.180)         (0.156)         (0.157)         (0.154)         (0.168)         (0.178)         (0.175)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.229***       -0.240***       -0.241***       -0.231***       -0.233***       -0.245***       -0.314***
                         (0.0352)        (0.0355)        (0.0357)        (0.0359)        (0.0364)        (0.0369)        (0.0488)   

onset_t1                   -0.324***       -0.318***       -0.316***       -0.311***       -0.316***       -0.326***       -0.290***
                         (0.0248)        (0.0250)        (0.0250)        (0.0249)        (0.0287)        (0.0287)        (0.0386)   

onset_t2                   0.0114***       0.0110***       0.0109***       0.0107***       0.0114***       0.0119***      0.00961***
                        (0.00132)       (0.00135)       (0.00134)       (0.00134)       (0.00155)       (0.00155)       (0.00193)   

onset_t3                -0.000122***    -0.000117***    -0.000116***    -0.000114***    -0.000130***    -0.000133***   -0.0000985***
                      (0.0000193)     (0.0000195)     (0.0000194)     (0.0000194)     (0.0000227)     (0.0000228)     (0.0000262)   

oil_value_nom_P~1_l1                   -0.0000159                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000423)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_P~2_l1                    0.0000277                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000314)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~1_l1                                      0.00413                                                                   
                                                        (0.00300)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~2_l1                                      0.00506                                                                   
                                                        (0.00389)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~1_l1                                                       0.0181*                                                  
                                                                        (0.00731)                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~2_l1                                                      0.00557                                                   
                                                                        (0.00665)                                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.139***                                
                                                                                         (0.0417)                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.129**                                 
                                                                                         (0.0442)                                   

per capita version~S                                                                                     -0.00944                   
                                                                                                        (0.00695)                   

per capita version~S                                                                                      0.00979***                
                                                                                                        (0.00248)                   

net_oil_exports~1_l1                                                                                                   0.00000295   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000843)   

net_oil_exports~2_l1                                                                                                  -0.00000302   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000925)   

Constant                   -1.669***       -1.468***       -1.526***       -1.692***       -1.919***       -1.621***       -0.814   
                          (0.425)         (0.434)         (0.435)         (0.445)         (0.476)         (0.482)         (0.587)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                58922           53964           53964           53964           46816           46816           24320   
chi2                       1110.5          1004.9          1077.8          1066.0           985.7           891.5           423.0   
r2_p                        0.220           0.224           0.224           0.226           0.223           0.218           0.240   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. eststo clear

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 
> bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal oil_value_nom_POP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_POP_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_pol
> ity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, r
> ob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal oil_value_nom_GDP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_GDP_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_pol
> ity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, r
> ob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_p
> olity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0,
>  rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1 L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_
> l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster
> (dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal L_PC_RESERVES_c1 L_PC_RESERVES_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 b
> alanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dya
> did)
(est6 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1 net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff
> _l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_
> dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if Side A initia~a                                                                                                                
dyadic trade depen~1       -1.387          -0.904          -1.592          -0.906          -0.776          -0.307          -5.677   
                          (2.654)         (2.564)         (2.582)         (2.565)         (2.134)         (2.201)         (5.478)   

dyadic trade depen~2       -7.801+         -6.987+         -7.429+         -7.033+         -4.631          -4.754          -3.071   
                          (4.237)         (3.907)         (4.100)         (3.897)         (3.242)         (3.447)         (4.374)   

institutionalized ~c      -0.0374        -0.00642        -0.00263        -0.00929         -0.0229         -0.0252          0.0844+  
                         (0.0471)        (0.0390)        (0.0394)        (0.0404)        (0.0448)        (0.0456)        (0.0448)   

institutionalized ~c       0.0233          0.0115          0.0191         0.00737          0.0512          0.0279         -0.0756+  
                         (0.0408)        (0.0339)        (0.0342)        (0.0354)        (0.0391)        (0.0396)        (0.0406)   

difference between~t       0.0455***       0.0440***       0.0456***       0.0405***       0.0323***       0.0310**        0.0527***
                        (0.00917)       (0.00913)       (0.00903)       (0.00897)       (0.00931)       (0.00972)        (0.0151)   

Interaction of c1'~r    0.0000470        -0.00115        -0.00101        -0.00112        0.000558       -0.000682        -0.00647*  
                        (0.00273)       (0.00230)       (0.00231)       (0.00242)       (0.00260)       (0.00264)       (0.00285)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.302**        -1.438***       -1.444***       -1.555***       -1.387**        -1.279**        -2.290***
                          (0.412)         (0.420)         (0.417)         (0.412)         (0.433)         (0.476)         (0.578)   

initiators p(win) ~         0.647**         0.722***        0.731***        0.597*          0.411+          0.562*          0.701*  
                          (0.208)         (0.205)         (0.206)         (0.241)         (0.247)         (0.231)         (0.287)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.601**        -0.616**        -0.659**        -0.493*         -0.394+         -0.541*         -0.897** 
                          (0.207)         (0.206)         (0.208)         (0.205)         (0.221)         (0.228)         (0.278)   

1 if the two state~         0.708***        0.626***        0.650***        0.646***        0.597**         0.531**         0.394*  
                          (0.199)         (0.172)         (0.174)         (0.170)         (0.186)         (0.201)         (0.182)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.269***       -0.274***       -0.277***       -0.264***       -0.273***       -0.283***       -0.336***
                         (0.0370)        (0.0369)        (0.0371)        (0.0373)        (0.0403)        (0.0412)        (0.0500)   

onset_nonfatal_t1          -0.308***       -0.300***       -0.297***       -0.289***       -0.282***       -0.299***       -0.294***
                         (0.0327)        (0.0311)        (0.0310)        (0.0303)        (0.0358)        (0.0370)        (0.0467)   

onset_nonfatal_t2          0.0114***       0.0109***       0.0108***       0.0104***       0.0104***       0.0111***       0.0103***
                        (0.00160)       (0.00156)       (0.00155)       (0.00152)       (0.00180)       (0.00185)       (0.00222)   

onset_nonfatal_t3       -0.000124***    -0.000119***    -0.000118***    -0.000114***    -0.000116***    -0.000122***    -0.000110***
                      (0.0000216)     (0.0000212)     (0.0000210)     (0.0000208)     (0.0000247)     (0.0000253)     (0.0000286)   

oil_value_nom_P~1_l1                   -0.0000189                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000408)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_P~2_l1                    0.0000514                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000315)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~1_l1                                      0.00601+                                                                  
                                                        (0.00316)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~2_l1                                      0.00708+                                                                  
                                                        (0.00409)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~1_l1                                                       0.0248**                                                 
                                                                        (0.00892)                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~2_l1                                                      0.00972                                                   
                                                                        (0.00776)                                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.223***                                
                                                                                         (0.0485)                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.115*                                  
                                                                                         (0.0501)                                   

per capita version~S                                                                                     -0.00746                   
                                                                                                        (0.00742)                   

per capita version~S                                                                                       0.0106***                
                                                                                                        (0.00296)                   

net_oil_exports~1_l1                                                                                                    0.0000111   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000847)   

net_oil_exports~2_l1                                                                                                 -0.000000760   
                                                                                                                      (0.0000100)   

Constant                   -1.798***       -1.686***       -1.772***       -2.078***       -2.135***       -1.745**        -0.552   
                          (0.483)         (0.488)         (0.487)         (0.480)         (0.544)         (0.585)         (0.669)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                58631           53728           53728           53728           46597           46597           24221   
chi2                        739.4           660.3           709.7           705.6           597.1           548.3           326.0   
r2_p                        0.173           0.173           0.175           0.178           0.171           0.162           0.205   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. eststo clear

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bot
> hminor contigland ln_distance onset_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal oil_value_nom_POP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_POP_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity
> 2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(d
> yadid)
(est2 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal oil_value_nom_GDP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_GDP_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity
> 2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(d
> yadid)
(est3 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_poli
> ty2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster
> (dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1 L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 
> balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal L_PC_RESERVES_c1 L_PC_RESERVES_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 bala
> nceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1 net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1
>  c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1 & us_rus_dyad==0, rob
>  cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if side ~i    1 if side ~i    1 if side ~i    1 if side ~i    1 if side ~i    1 if side ~i    1 if side ~i   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if side A initia~i                                                                                                                
dyadic trade depen~1       -24.62          -26.97          -28.08          -27.81          -49.02+         -49.63+         -1.245   
                          (15.62)         (21.54)         (21.96)         (22.38)         (28.36)         (28.27)         (14.29)   

dyadic trade depen~2       -13.44          -13.71          -14.09          -14.65          -2.925          -2.823          -83.72+  
                          (15.66)         (20.15)         (20.41)         (20.85)         (13.21)         (12.99)         (44.32)   

institutionalized ~c     -0.00585          0.0217          0.0241          0.0256          0.0356          0.0328           0.131   
                         (0.0509)        (0.0532)        (0.0537)        (0.0541)        (0.0631)        (0.0626)         (0.109)   

institutionalized ~c       0.0185        -0.00708        -0.00515        -0.00978          0.0334          0.0205          -0.115   
                         (0.0478)        (0.0474)        (0.0475)        (0.0484)        (0.0529)        (0.0548)        (0.0861)   

difference between~t       0.0625***       0.0688***       0.0695***       0.0690***       0.0582***       0.0560***       0.0401   
                         (0.0150)        (0.0166)        (0.0167)        (0.0163)        (0.0170)        (0.0168)        (0.0313)   

Interaction of c1'~r    -0.000535        -0.00216        -0.00214        -0.00233        -0.00193        -0.00213        -0.00588   
                        (0.00296)       (0.00297)       (0.00298)       (0.00308)       (0.00354)       (0.00356)       (0.00623)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.010          -1.382+         -1.407+         -1.495*         -1.150+         -0.855          -1.335   
                          (0.718)         (0.742)         (0.737)         (0.712)         (0.668)         (0.701)         (1.085)   

initiators p(win) ~         0.208           0.376           0.370           0.204          0.0921          -0.119           1.387*  
                          (0.400)         (0.438)         (0.440)         (0.473)         (0.439)         (0.441)         (0.640)   

1 if both states i~m      -0.0778         -0.0676         -0.0760         -0.0327           0.222          0.0472           0.124   
                          (0.295)         (0.290)         (0.289)         (0.320)         (0.361)         (0.368)         (0.689)   

1 if the two state~         3.691***        3.356***        3.383***        3.382***        4.091***        4.110***        2.961** 
                          (0.697)         (0.706)         (0.706)         (0.703)         (1.064)         (1.075)         (1.001)   

log distance betwe~2       0.0617          0.0303          0.0325          0.0371          0.0759          0.0590          -0.127   
                          (0.112)         (0.114)         (0.115)         (0.117)         (0.144)         (0.146)         (0.242)   

onset_fatal_t1             -0.216***       -0.208***       -0.208***       -0.207***       -0.232***       -0.240***      -0.0737   
                         (0.0572)        (0.0600)        (0.0602)        (0.0606)        (0.0694)        (0.0694)        (0.0990)   

onset_fatal_t2            0.00634*        0.00560+        0.00562+        0.00556+        0.00903*        0.00950**     -0.000109   
                        (0.00288)       (0.00298)       (0.00298)       (0.00300)       (0.00366)       (0.00368)       (0.00439)   

onset_fatal_t3         -0.0000603      -0.0000488      -0.0000491      -0.0000485       -0.000130*      -0.000136*      0.0000176   
                      (0.0000408)     (0.0000414)     (0.0000415)     (0.0000417)     (0.0000540)     (0.0000552)     (0.0000547)   

oil_value_nom_P~1_l1                   -0.0000599                                                                                   
                                       (0.000166)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_P~2_l1                   -0.0000375                                                                                   
                                       (0.000123)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~1_l1                                      0.00225                                                                   
                                                        (0.00762)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~2_l1                                     -0.00226                                                                   
                                                        (0.00939)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~1_l1                                                       0.0132                                                   
                                                                         (0.0133)                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~2_l1                                                     -0.00491                                                   
                                                                         (0.0140)                                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                        0.0435                                   
                                                                                         (0.0837)                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.221*                                  
                                                                                         (0.0965)                                   

per capita version~S                                                                                      -0.0180                   
                                                                                                         (0.0205)                   

per capita version~S                                                                                       0.0134**                 
                                                                                                        (0.00408)                   

net_oil_exports~1_l1                                                                                                   -0.0000245   
                                                                                                                      (0.0000420)   

net_oil_exports~2_l1                                                                                                  -0.00000933   
                                                                                                                      (0.0000261)   

Constant                   -6.276***       -5.770***       -5.793***       -5.763***       -6.966***       -6.721***       -6.311** 
                          (1.131)         (1.159)         (1.163)         (1.203)         (1.393)         (1.355)         (2.100)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                58631           53728           53728           53728           46597           46597           24221   
chi2                        317.5           392.6           418.6           406.9           235.4           228.9           420.0   
r2_p                        0.206           0.213           0.213           0.213           0.238           0.235           0.229   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. eststo clear

. 
. * Rare event logit
. eststo: qui relogit onset c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothmin
> or contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1
(est1 stored)

. eststo: qui relogit onset oil_value_nom_POP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_POP_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdi
> ff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1
(est2 stored)

. eststo: qui relogit onset oil_value_nom_GDP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_GDP_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdi
> ff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1
(est3 stored)

. eststo: qui relogit onset oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2X
> diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1
(est4 stored)

. eststo: qui relogit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1 L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 bala
> nceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1
(est5 stored)

. eststo: qui relogit onset L_PC_RESERVES_c1 L_PC_RESERVES_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceo
> fforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1
(est6 stored)

. eststo: qui relogit onset net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1 net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_
> polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1
(est7 stored)

. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
dyadic trade depen~1        1.186           1.081           0.782           0.898          0.0415           1.015          0.0749   
                          (1.365)         (1.398)         (1.418)         (1.393)         (1.481)         (1.516)         (2.709)   

dyadic trade depen~2       -1.242          -0.931          -1.279          -0.992          -0.544           0.333          -3.871   
                          (2.073)         (1.958)         (1.942)         (1.924)         (1.670)         (1.774)         (3.468)   

institutionalized ~c       -0.102***      -0.0818***      -0.0772**       -0.0846***      -0.0921***      -0.0982***      -0.0339   
                         (0.0230)        (0.0244)        (0.0245)        (0.0249)        (0.0278)        (0.0275)        (0.0375)   

institutionalized ~c       0.0567**        0.0510**        0.0569**        0.0468*         0.0874***       0.0670**       -0.0144   
                         (0.0179)        (0.0188)        (0.0189)        (0.0191)        (0.0215)        (0.0211)        (0.0288)   

difference between~t       0.0520***       0.0526***       0.0539***       0.0495***       0.0422***       0.0423***       0.0494***
                        (0.00567)       (0.00596)       (0.00596)       (0.00596)       (0.00672)       (0.00665)       (0.00951)   

Interaction of c1'~r      0.00435**       0.00356*        0.00357*        0.00356*        0.00495**       0.00435**      0.000846   
                        (0.00133)       (0.00141)       (0.00141)       (0.00144)       (0.00160)       (0.00157)       (0.00226)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.445***       -1.675***       -1.696***       -1.776***       -1.453***       -1.294***       -2.212***
                          (0.270)         (0.284)         (0.284)         (0.281)         (0.300)         (0.310)         (0.438)   

initiators p(win) ~         0.528***        0.548***        0.548***        0.381*          0.432**         0.453***        0.899***
                          (0.119)         (0.125)         (0.125)         (0.154)         (0.156)         (0.138)         (0.205)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.611***       -0.592***       -0.624***       -0.430***       -0.320*         -0.544***       -0.764***
                          (0.121)         (0.126)         (0.126)         (0.129)         (0.143)         (0.140)         (0.167)   

1 if the two state~         0.820***        0.702***        0.730***        0.724***        0.751***        0.699***        0.518***
                          (0.102)         (0.108)         (0.108)         (0.106)         (0.115)         (0.118)         (0.151)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.171***       -0.180***       -0.181***       -0.167***       -0.187***       -0.191***       -0.233***
                         (0.0192)        (0.0198)        (0.0198)        (0.0202)        (0.0222)        (0.0222)        (0.0276)   

onset_t1                   -0.314***       -0.309***       -0.307***       -0.300***       -0.288***       -0.303***       -0.260***
                         (0.0206)        (0.0215)        (0.0214)        (0.0213)        (0.0245)        (0.0248)        (0.0335)   

onset_t2                   0.0103***      0.00997***      0.00988***      0.00955***      0.00935***       0.0100***      0.00762***
                        (0.00109)       (0.00113)       (0.00113)       (0.00113)       (0.00133)       (0.00134)       (0.00162)   

onset_t3                -0.000103***   -0.0000981***   -0.0000971***   -0.0000936***   -0.0000948***    -0.000101***   -0.0000689** 
                      (0.0000155)     (0.0000160)     (0.0000159)     (0.0000159)     (0.0000193)     (0.0000194)     (0.0000213)   

oil_value_nom_P~1_l1                   0.00000722                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000242)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_P~2_l1                    0.0000253                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000212)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~1_l1                                      0.00447+                                                                  
                                                        (0.00260)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~2_l1                                      0.00697*                                                                  
                                                        (0.00290)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~1_l1                                                       0.0247***                                                
                                                                        (0.00539)                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~2_l1                                                      0.00683                                                   
                                                                        (0.00504)                                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.194***                                
                                                                                         (0.0305)                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.175***                                
                                                                                         (0.0330)                                   

per capita version~S                                                                                     -0.00222                   
                                                                                                        (0.00411)                   

per capita version~S                                                                                      0.00931**                 
                                                                                                        (0.00317)                   

net_oil_exports~1_l1                                                                                                  -0.00000589   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000518)   

net_oil_exports~2_l1                                                                                                  -0.00000993+  
                                                                                                                     (0.00000569)   

Constant                   -1.241***       -1.012**        -1.079***       -1.390***       -1.773***       -1.299***       -0.392   
                          (0.300)         (0.319)         (0.320)         (0.330)         (0.355)         (0.353)         (0.462)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                73054           67076           67076           67076           57784           57784           31008   
chi2                                                                                                                                
r2_p                                                                                                                                
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. eststo clear

. 
. * Post-1973
. eststo: qui logit onset c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor
>  contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & year>=1973, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_POP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_POP_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff
> _l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & year>=1973, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_GDP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_GDP_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff
> _l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & year>=1973, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdi
> ff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & year>=1973, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1 L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanc
> eofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & year>=1973, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset L_PC_RESERVES_c1 L_PC_RESERVES_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceoff
> orce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & year>=1973, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. eststo: qui  logit onset net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1 net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_p
> olity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & year>=1973, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 initiated~t                                                                                                                
dyadic trade depen~1        0.573           0.369          0.0909           0.159         -0.0571           0.761          -0.456   
                          (1.589)         (1.659)         (1.695)         (1.581)         (1.288)         (1.521)         (2.206)   

dyadic trade depen~2       -0.963          -0.578          -0.875          -0.705          -0.714          0.0614          -4.421+  
                          (2.720)         (2.531)         (2.450)         (2.553)         (2.176)         (2.376)         (2.667)   

institutionalized ~c      -0.0656*        -0.0594*        -0.0546+        -0.0618*        -0.0691*        -0.0716*        -0.0330   
                         (0.0302)        (0.0302)        (0.0300)        (0.0312)        (0.0322)        (0.0322)        (0.0421)   

institutionalized ~c       0.0259          0.0224          0.0280          0.0229          0.0641*         0.0424         -0.0144   
                         (0.0245)        (0.0247)        (0.0251)        (0.0259)        (0.0282)        (0.0266)        (0.0307)   

difference between~t       0.0526***       0.0523***       0.0537***       0.0499***       0.0436***       0.0463***       0.0493***
                        (0.00784)       (0.00791)       (0.00789)       (0.00800)       (0.00835)       (0.00829)        (0.0109)   

Interaction of c1'~r      0.00218         0.00177         0.00177         0.00198         0.00332+        0.00240        0.000817   
                        (0.00178)       (0.00180)       (0.00179)       (0.00188)       (0.00192)       (0.00185)       (0.00248)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.762***       -1.800***       -1.820***       -1.867***       -1.669***       -1.581***       -2.230***
                          (0.379)         (0.383)         (0.383)         (0.374)         (0.378)         (0.402)         (0.507)   

initiators p(win) ~         0.654***        0.610***        0.612***        0.421*          0.486*          0.555**         0.908***
                          (0.175)         (0.174)         (0.175)         (0.214)         (0.217)         (0.188)         (0.242)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.628***       -0.626***       -0.661***       -0.521**        -0.323+         -0.563**        -0.765***
                          (0.164)         (0.165)         (0.166)         (0.176)         (0.181)         (0.172)         (0.196)   

1 if the two state~         0.664***        0.641***        0.674***        0.679***        0.703***        0.642***        0.524** 
                          (0.136)         (0.137)         (0.137)         (0.135)         (0.135)         (0.145)         (0.165)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.202***       -0.205***       -0.207***       -0.197***       -0.196***       -0.201***       -0.233***
                         (0.0281)        (0.0283)        (0.0281)        (0.0291)        (0.0297)        (0.0303)        (0.0306)   

onset_t1                   -0.277***       -0.278***       -0.278***       -0.273***       -0.247***       -0.256***       -0.262***
                         (0.0270)        (0.0274)        (0.0273)        (0.0274)        (0.0303)        (0.0302)        (0.0364)   

onset_t2                  0.00839***      0.00849***      0.00851***      0.00831***      0.00729***      0.00755***      0.00770***
                        (0.00131)       (0.00133)       (0.00132)       (0.00133)       (0.00152)       (0.00152)       (0.00171)   

onset_t3               -0.0000787***   -0.0000801***   -0.0000806***   -0.0000789***   -0.0000693***   -0.0000700***   -0.0000700** 
                      (0.0000174)     (0.0000177)     (0.0000176)     (0.0000177)     (0.0000209)     (0.0000208)     (0.0000220)   

oil_value_nom_P~1_l1                  -0.00000847                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000352)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_P~2_l1                   0.00000878                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000275)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~1_l1                                      0.00284                                                                   
                                                        (0.00292)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~2_l1                                      0.00482                                                                   
                                                        (0.00393)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~1_l1                                                       0.0199**                                                 
                                                                        (0.00747)                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~2_l1                                                      0.00177                                                   
                                                                        (0.00677)                                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.192***                                
                                                                                         (0.0385)                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.155***                                
                                                                                         (0.0414)                                   

per capita version~S                                                                                     -0.00364                   
                                                                                                        (0.00917)                   

per capita version~S                                                                                       0.0168***                
                                                                                                        (0.00479)                   

net_oil_exports~1_l1                                                                                                  -0.00000583   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000677)   

net_oil_exports~2_l1                                                                                                  -0.00000988+  
                                                                                                                     (0.00000564)   

Constant                   -0.898*         -0.817+         -0.888*         -1.095*         -1.613***       -1.098*         -0.397   
                          (0.420)         (0.429)         (0.435)         (0.466)         (0.471)         (0.453)         (0.513)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                52940           51590           51590           51590           43578           43578           31008   
chi2                       1071.1          1055.0          1126.1          1085.9          1088.1           936.3           740.2   
r2_p                        0.210           0.212           0.213           0.215           0.215           0.204           0.223   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. eststo clear

. 
. * Exclusion of Gulf War 1990/1991
. eststo: qui logit onset c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor
>  contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & cwongonm!=3957, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_POP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_POP_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff
> _l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & cwongonm!=3957, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_GDP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_GDP_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff
> _l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & cwongonm!=3957, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdi
> ff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & cwongonm!=3957, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1 L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanc
> eofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & cwongonm!=3957, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset L_PC_RESERVES_c1 L_PC_RESERVES_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceoff
> orce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & cwongonm!=3957, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. eststo: qui  logit onset net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1 net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_p
> olity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 if pol_rel==1 & cwongonm!=3957, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 initiated~t                                                                                                                
dyadic trade depen~1        1.048           0.939           0.616           0.752          -0.103           0.871          -0.405   
                          (1.212)         (1.215)         (1.244)         (1.121)         (1.152)         (1.387)         (2.084)   

dyadic trade depen~2       -1.669          -1.340          -1.667          -1.407          -0.913         -0.0371          -5.279   
                          (3.004)         (2.737)         (2.664)         (2.686)         (2.208)         (2.446)         (3.306)   

institutionalized ~c       -0.101***      -0.0801**       -0.0756**       -0.0827**       -0.0898**       -0.0962**       -0.0268   
                         (0.0296)        (0.0290)        (0.0290)        (0.0297)        (0.0310)        (0.0310)        (0.0408)   

institutionalized ~c       0.0561*         0.0502*         0.0559*         0.0460+         0.0861**        0.0659**       -0.0181   
                         (0.0255)        (0.0243)        (0.0245)        (0.0252)        (0.0264)        (0.0255)        (0.0305)   

difference between~t       0.0513***       0.0519***       0.0531***       0.0489***       0.0412***       0.0413***       0.0479***
                        (0.00687)       (0.00706)       (0.00702)       (0.00693)       (0.00741)       (0.00748)        (0.0105)   

Interaction of c1'~r      0.00422*        0.00340+        0.00343*        0.00340+        0.00475**       0.00414*       0.000360   
                        (0.00175)       (0.00174)       (0.00174)       (0.00181)       (0.00179)       (0.00176)       (0.00240)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.435***       -1.665***       -1.686***       -1.769***       -1.440***       -1.280***       -2.201***
                          (0.375)         (0.388)         (0.387)         (0.374)         (0.348)         (0.378)         (0.507)   

initiators p(win) ~         0.532***        0.553***        0.553***        0.382*          0.422*          0.458**         0.929***
                          (0.160)         (0.162)         (0.162)         (0.191)         (0.191)         (0.171)         (0.245)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.614***       -0.595***       -0.627***       -0.434**        -0.326*         -0.545***       -0.775***
                          (0.148)         (0.146)         (0.147)         (0.150)         (0.154)         (0.155)         (0.195)   

1 if the two state~         0.821***        0.702***        0.729***        0.725***        0.752***        0.698***        0.518** 
                          (0.153)         (0.136)         (0.136)         (0.133)         (0.145)         (0.156)         (0.164)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.171***       -0.180***       -0.182***       -0.167***       -0.188***       -0.192***       -0.235***
                         (0.0263)        (0.0263)        (0.0264)        (0.0268)        (0.0268)        (0.0281)        (0.0302)   

onset_t1                   -0.313***       -0.308***       -0.306***       -0.300***       -0.288***       -0.303***       -0.260***
                         (0.0227)        (0.0233)        (0.0232)        (0.0231)        (0.0267)        (0.0268)        (0.0360)   

onset_t2                   0.0103***      0.00995***      0.00986***      0.00953***      0.00936***       0.0100***      0.00758***
                        (0.00115)       (0.00119)       (0.00118)       (0.00118)       (0.00140)       (0.00141)       (0.00170)   

onset_t3                -0.000103***   -0.0000982***   -0.0000970***   -0.0000936***   -0.0000952***    -0.000102***   -0.0000684** 
                      (0.0000161)     (0.0000166)     (0.0000164)     (0.0000165)     (0.0000200)     (0.0000201)     (0.0000220)   

oil_value_nom_P~1_l1                   0.00000276                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000335)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_P~2_l1                    0.0000212                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000276)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~1_l1                                      0.00460+                                                                  
                                                        (0.00272)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~2_l1                                      0.00620+                                                                  
                                                        (0.00365)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~1_l1                                                       0.0249***                                                
                                                                        (0.00687)                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~2_l1                                                      0.00656                                                   
                                                                        (0.00626)                                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.196***                                
                                                                                         (0.0358)                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.168***                                
                                                                                         (0.0393)                                   

per capita version~S                                                                                     -0.00631                   
                                                                                                        (0.00562)                   

per capita version~S                                                                                      0.00876***                
                                                                                                        (0.00243)                   

net_oil_exports~1_l1                                                                                                  -0.00000511   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000658)   

net_oil_exports~2_l1                                                                                                   -0.0000107+  
                                                                                                                     (0.00000551)   

Constant                   -1.249**        -1.017*         -1.083**        -1.393**        -1.770***       -1.308**        -0.413   
                          (0.399)         (0.412)         (0.414)         (0.429)         (0.429)         (0.432)         (0.513)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                73030           67052           67052           67052           57760           57760           30984   
chi2                       1490.9          1459.6          1545.5          1582.8          1416.9          1286.7           734.5   
r2_p                        0.200           0.205           0.207           0.210           0.209           0.198           0.224   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. eststo clear

. 
. 
end of do-file

. do "C:\Users\struever\AppData\Local\Temp\6\STD00000000.tmp"

. 
.               ***********************************
.               ***             II.             *** 
.               ***  Online Supporting Material ***
.                           ***********************************
.                           
.                           
. *** TABLE S-1: VARIABLE DEFINITIONS AND DATA SOURCES
. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-2: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS - undirected dyads
. use replication_fpa_StrueverWegenast_udd_short.dta, clear

. 
. estpost sum onset onset_nonfatal onset_fatal onset_lowfatal onset_highfatal ///
>                         oil_value_nom_POP_higher oil_value_nom_POP_lower  ///
>                         oil_value_nom_GDP_higher oil_value_nom_GDP_lower  ///
>                         oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher oil_value_nom_LOG1_lower ///
>                         oil_value_nom2_higher oil_value_nom2_lower  ///
>                         f1_L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher f1_L_RESERVES_LOG1_lower ///
>                         f1_L_RESERVES_higher f1_L_RESERVES_lower /// 
>                         f1_L_PC_RESERVES_higher f1_L_PC_RESERVES_lower ///
>                         net_oil_exports_value2_higher net_oil_exports_value2_lower ///
>                         milex_higher2_l1 armsimports_higher_l1 onepolautonomy_l1 taxgdp_best_lower_l1 lnontaxrev2_higher oneincidencev412_l1 maccetot_higher_l1 ///
>                         jc_radoil_c1 jc_radoil_c2 jc_radoil_any ///
>                         dyadictradedep_lower democ_lower polity2diff balanceofforce bothminor contigland ln_distance pol_rel ///
>                         onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 ///
>                         onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 ///
>                         onset_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 ///
>                         onset_lowfatal_t1 onset_lowfatal_t2 onset_lowfatal_t3 ///
>                         onset_highfatal_t1 onset_highfatal_t2 onset_highfatal_t3

             |  e(count)   e(sum_w)    e(mean)     e(Var)      e(sd)     e(min)     e(max)     e(sum) 
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       onset |    555932     555932   .0028043   .0027964   .0528814          0          1       1559 
onset_nonf~l |    555556     555556   .0019224   .0019187    .043803          0          1       1068 
 onset_fatal |    555556     555556    .000585   .0005847   .0241797          0          1        325 
onset_lowf~l |    555556     555556   .0002646   .0002645   .0162644          0          1        147 
onset_high~l |    555556     555556   .0003204   .0003203   .0178969          0          1        178 
oi~OP_higher |    308470     308470   746.1526    5006492   2237.519   .0007326    27267.2   2.30e+08 
oil~OP_lower |    308470     308470   24.73535   56309.34   237.2959          0   23234.43    7630113 
oi~DP_higher |    308470     308470   8.730519   278.2527   16.68091   .0000387   181.3295    2693103 
oil~DP_lower |    308470     308470   .5090422    9.03744   3.006234          0   154.0418   157024.2 
oil~1_higher |    334524     334524   19.90011   8.924717   2.987427   8.177399   25.80272    6657065 
oil_~1_lower |    334524     334524   6.066417   73.33373   8.563512          0   25.60738    2029362 
oil~2_higher |    334524     334524   5793.946   2.13e+08   14582.95   .0035586   160686.9   1.94e+09 
oil_~2_lower |    334524     334524   294.3742    3389253   1840.992          0   132173.6   9.85e+07 
f1_~1_higher |    151706     151706   1.639399    2.23761   1.495864   .0099503   5.570251   248706.7 
f1_L~1_lower |    151706     151706   .1260832   .1959595   .4426732          0    4.61512   19127.58 
f1_L_RESER.. |    151706     151706    16.8213    1289.05   35.90335        .01      261.5    2551892 
f1_L_RESER.. |    151706     151706   .4734065      11.96   3.458323          0        100   71818.61 
f1_L_PC_~her |    151917     151917    3.43354   180.1369   13.42151   .0000796   161.9898   521613.2 
f1_L_PC_~wer |    151917     151917   .0317727   .1986447   .4456958          0   48.27885   4826.813 
net_oil_~her |    186567     186567   2878.332   5.23e+07   7230.558  -54270.61   67033.73   5.37e+08 
net_oil_~wer |    186567     186567   -2883.44   6.90e+07   8303.774  -93834.67   31566.86  -5.38e+08 
milex_high~1 |    476761     476761   6.965023   815.6409   28.55943    .000029      317.9    3320652 
armsimport~1 |    437746     437746   410.6618   355277.8   596.0519          1       5658   1.80e+08 
onepolauto~1 |    419272     419272   .6186676   .2359186   .4857145          0          1     259390 
taxgdp_bes~1 |    224834     224834   .1342961   .0047482   .0689069   .0003458   .5057316   30194.32 
lnontaxrev~r |    161239     161239   .2560725    .043192   .2078268   .0127524          1   41288.88 
oneinciden~1 |    492692     492692   .3030798   .2112229   .4595899          0          1     149325 
maccetot_h~1 |    158640     158640   3.708138   4.370208   2.090504          1         11     588259 
jc_radoil_c1 |    460961     460961   .0141986    .013997    .118309          0          1       6545 
jc_radoil_c2 |    458225     458225    .028929   .0280922   .1676073          0          1      13256 
jc_radoil_~y |    383790     383790   .0512259    .048602   .2204585          0          1      19660 
dyadictrad~1 |    260222     260222   .0006688   9.24e-06   .0030405   3.78e-16   .1685033   174.0425 
democ_lowe~1 |    381114     381114   1.568077   8.622136   2.936347          0         10     597616 
polity2dif~1 |    408845     408845   8.007778    42.2968   6.503599          0         20    3273940 
balanceoff~1 |    536255     536255   .8365142   .0227583   .1508586   .5000219          1   448584.9 
   bothminor |    555932     555932   .9263975   .0681853   .2611232          0          1     515014 
  contigland |    555932     555932   .0213587   .0209026   .1445772          0          1      11874 
 ln_distance |    555932     555932   8.013597   2.897286   1.702141          0   9.421168    4455015 
     pol_rel |    555932     555932   .1046549   .0937024   .3061085          0          1      58181 
    onset_t1 |    555932     555932   18.33309   188.3223   13.72306          0         55   1.02e+07 
    onset_t2 |    555932     555932   524.4242     424664   651.6625          0       3025   2.92e+08 
    onset_t3 |    555932     555932   18129.94   9.41e+08   30680.89          0     166375   1.01e+10 
onset_nonf~1 |    555556     555556   18.39187   188.3185   13.72292          0         55   1.02e+07 
onset_nonf~2 |    555556     555556   526.5792   425787.7   652.5241          0       3025   2.93e+08 
onset_nonf~3 |    555556     555556   18212.93   9.45e+08   30736.26          0     166375   1.01e+10 
onset_fata~1 |    555556     555556   18.64212   190.7033   13.80954          0         55   1.04e+07 
onset_fata~2 |    555556     555556   538.2318   437389.1    661.354          0       3025   2.99e+08 
onset_fata~3 |    555556     555556   18736.59   9.79e+08   31293.25          0     166375   1.04e+10 
onset_lowf~1 |    555556     555556   18.67979   190.9258   13.81759          0         55   1.04e+07 
onset_lowf~2 |    555556     555556   539.8601     438738    662.373          0       3025   3.00e+08 
onset_lowf~3 |    555556     555556   18806.58   9.83e+08   31357.45          0     166375   1.04e+10 
onset_high~1 |    555556     555556   18.68788   191.0095   13.82062          0         55   1.04e+07 
onset_high~2 |    555556     555556    540.246   439052.9   662.6107          0       3025   3.00e+08 
onset_high~3 |    555556     555556   18823.14   9.84e+08      31373          0     166375   1.05e+10 

.                         
. *** TABLE S-2: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS - directed dyads
. use replication_fpa_StrueverWegenast_dd_short.dta, clear

. 
. estpost sum onset onset_fatal onset_nonfatal onset_lowfatal onset_highfatal revisionist ///
>                         revisionist_fatal revisionist_nonfatal revisionist_lowfatal revisionist_highfatal ///
>                         oil_value_nom_POP_c1 oil_value_nom_POP_c2 ///
>                         oil_value_nom_GDP_c1 oil_value_nom_GDP_c2 ///
>                         oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1 oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2 ///
>                         oil_value_nom2_c1 oil_value_nom2_c2 ///
>                         f1_L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1 f1_L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2 ///
>                         f1_L_RESERVES_c1 f1_L_RESERVES_c2 ///
>                         f1_L_PC_RESERVES_c1 f1_L_PC_RESERVES_c2 ///
>                         net_oil_exports_value2_c1 net_oil_exports_value2_c2 ///
>                         jc_radoil_c1 jc_radoil_c2 ///
>                         c1_dyadictradedep c2_dyadictradedep ///
>                         c1_democ c2_democ_l1 polity2diff ///
>                         c1_polity2Xdiff balanceofforce ///
>                         c1_powerratio bothminor contigland ln_distance ///              
>                         onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3 ///
>                         onset_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 ///
>                         onset_lowfatal_t1 onset_lowfatal_t2 onset_lowfatal_t3 ///
>                         onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 ///
>                         onset_highfatal_t1 onset_highfatal_t2 onset_highfatal_t3 ///
>                         revisionist_t1 revisionist_t2 revisionist_t3 ///
>                         revisionist_fatal_t1 revisionist_fatal_t2 revisionist_fatal_t3 ///
>                         revisionist_lowfatal_t1 revisionist_lowfatal_t2 revisionist_lowfatal_t3 ///
>                         revisionist_nonfatal_t1 revisionist_nonfatal_t2 revisionist_nonfatal_t3 ///
>                         revisionist_highfatal_t1 revisionist_highfatal_t2 revisionist_highfatal_t3

             |  e(count)   e(sum_w)    e(mean)     e(Var)      e(sd)     e(min)     e(max)     e(sum) 
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       onset |   1111864    1111864   .0014633   .0014612   .0382252          0          1       1627 
 onset_fatal |   1111111    1111111   .0002997   .0002996   .0173093          0          1        333 
onset_nonf~l |   1111111    1111111   .0010143   .0010133   .0318319          0          1       1127 
onset_lowf~l |   1111111    1111111   .0001368   .0001368   .0116954          0          1        152 
onset_high~l |   1111111    1111111   .0001629   .0001629   .0127622          0          1        181 
 revisionist |   1111864    1111864   .0011359   .0011346   .0336844          0          1       1263 
revis~_fatal |   1111111    1111111   .0002043   .0002043   .0142919          0          1        227 
revis~nfatal |   1111111    1111111   .0008262   .0008255   .0287318          0          1        918 
revis~wfatal |   1111111    1111111   .0000945   .0000945   .0097207          0          1        105 
revis~hfatal |   1111111    1111111   .0001098   .0001098    .010478          0          1        122 
oil_va~OP_c1 |    940515     940515   283.2461    1969934   1403.543          0    27267.2   2.66e+08 
oil_va~OP_c2 |    940513     940513   283.2469    1969938   1403.545          0    27267.2   2.66e+08 
oil_va~DP_c1 |    940515     940515   3.413772    121.124   11.00563          0   181.3295    3210704 
oil_va~DP_c2 |    940513     940513   3.413803   121.1246   11.00566          0   181.3295    3210726 
oil_val~1_c1 |    985538     985538   9.873452   97.59534   9.879035          0   25.80272    9730662 
oil_val~1_c2 |    985536     985536    9.87344   97.59547   9.879042          0   25.80272    9730631 
oil_val~2_c1 |    985538     985538   2263.288   8.75e+07   9352.246          0   160686.9   2.23e+09 
oil_val~2_c2 |    985536     985536   2263.293   8.75e+07   9352.254          0   160686.9   2.23e+09 
f1_L_RE~1_c1 |    777426     777426   .4148223   1.029662   1.014723          0   5.570251   322493.6 
f1_L_RE~1_c2 |    777426     777426   .4148223   1.029662   1.014723          0   5.570251   322493.6 
f1_L_RE~S_c1 |    777426     777426    4.07629   365.5704    19.1199          0      261.5    3169014 
f1_L_RE~S_c2 |    777426     777426    4.07629   365.5704    19.1199          0      261.5    3169014 
f1_L_PC_RE~1 |    777426     777426   .7868189   41.59935   6.449756          0   161.9898   611693.5 
f1_L_PC_RE~2 |    777426     777426   .7868189   41.59935   6.449756          0   161.9898   611693.5 
net_oil_e~c1 |    464725     464725  -98.23169   6.69e+07   8176.602  -93834.67   67033.73  -4.57e+07 
net_oil_ex~2 |    464725     464725  -98.23169   6.69e+07   8176.602  -93834.67   67033.73  -4.57e+07 
jc_radoil_c1 |    919186     919186   .0215419   .0210779   .1451821          0          1      19801 
jc_radoil_c2 |    919186     919186   .0215419   .0210779   .1451821          0          1      19801 
c1_dyadict~p |    788213     788213   .0026118   .0005612   .0236892          0    7.03165   2058.642 
c2_dyadict~p |    788213     788213   .0026118   .0005612   .0236892          0    7.03165   2058.642 
 c1_democ_l1 |    904104     904104   3.746144   17.40121   4.171475          0         10    3386904 
 c2_democ_l1 |    904104     904104   3.746144   17.40121   4.171475          0         10    3386904 
polity2dif~1 |    817690     817690   8.007778   42.29674   6.503595          0         20    6547880 
c1_polity2~1 |    817690     817690    3.78349   6990.591   83.60975       -200        200    3093722 
balanceoff~e |   1110892    1110892   .8370188   .0227685   .1508924   .5000219          1   929837.5 
c1_powerra~o |   1111860    1111860         .5   .1362316   .3690956          0          1     555930 
   bothminor |   1111864    1111864   .9263975   .0681853   .2611231          0          1    1030028 
  contigland |   1111864    1111864   .0213587   .0209026   .1445771          0          1      23748 
 ln_distance |   1111864    1111864   8.013876   2.894488    1.70132          0   9.421168    8910340 
    onset_t1 |   1111864    1111864   18.48462   189.2596   13.75717          0         55   2.06e+07 
    onset_t2 |   1111864    1111864   530.9405   430224.4   655.9149          0       3025   5.90e+08 
    onset_t3 |   1111864    1111864   18409.82   9.58e+08   30949.42          0     166375   2.05e+10 
onset_fata~1 |   1111111    1111111   18.68428   190.9977   13.82019          0         55   2.08e+07 
onset_fata~2 |   1111111    1111111   540.0999   438991.6   662.5644          0       3025   6.00e+08 
onset_fata~3 |   1111111    1111111   18817.65   9.84e+08    31369.5          0     166375   2.09e+10 
onset_lowf~1 |   1111111    1111111   18.70896   191.1718   13.82649          0         55   2.08e+07 
onset_lowf~2 |   1111111    1111111   541.1968   439941.7    663.281          0       3025   6.01e+08 
onset_lowf~3 |   1111111    1111111   18865.43   9.87e+08   31414.21          0     166375   2.10e+10 
onset_nonf~1 |   1111111    1111111    18.5288   189.3639   13.76096          0         55   2.06e+07 
onset_nonf~2 |   1111111    1111111     532.68   431290.3    656.727          0       3025   5.92e+08 
onset_nonf~3 |   1111111    1111111   18479.38   9.61e+08   31000.84          0     166375   2.05e+10 
onset_high~1 |   1111111    1111111   18.71258   191.2177   13.82815          0         55   2.08e+07 
onset_high~2 |   1111111    1111111   541.3783     440109   663.4071          0       3025   6.02e+08 
onset_high~3 |   1111111    1111111   18873.45   9.87e+08   31422.77          0     166375   2.10e+10 
revisio~t_t1 |   1111864    1111864   18.53752    189.608   13.76982          0         55   2.06e+07 
revisio~t_t2 |   1111864    1111864   533.2474   432124.4   657.3617          0       3025   5.93e+08 
revisio~t_t3 |   1111864    1111864   18508.56   9.63e+08   31039.31          0     166375   2.06e+10 
re~_fatal_t1 |   1111111    1111111     18.707   191.2165   13.82811          0         55   2.08e+07 
re~_fatal_t2 |   1111111    1111111   541.1684   440014.3   663.3357          0       3025   6.01e+08 
re~_fatal_t3 |   1111111    1111111   18865.49   9.87e+08   31417.63          0     166375   2.10e+10 
re~wfatal_t1 |   1111111    1111111   18.72234   191.3168   13.83173          0         55   2.08e+07 
re~wfatal_t2 |   1111111    1111111   541.8425   440592.2   663.7712          0       3025   6.02e+08 
re~wfatal_t3 |   1111111    1111111   18894.77   9.89e+08   31444.84          0     166375   2.10e+10 
re~nfatal_t1 |   1111111    1111111    18.5683   189.6798   13.77243          0         55   2.06e+07 
re~nfatal_t2 |   1111111    1111111   534.4613   432837.1   657.9035          0       3025   5.94e+08 
re~nfatal_t3 |   1111111    1111111   18556.85   9.66e+08    31073.3          0     166375   2.06e+10 
re~hfatal_t1 |   1111111    1111111   18.72543   191.3647   13.83346          0         55   2.08e+07 
re~hfatal_t2 |   1111111    1111111   542.0063   440761.3   663.8986          0       3025   6.02e+08 
re~hfatal_t3 |   1111111    1111111   18902.27   9.89e+08   31453.08          0     166375   2.10e+10 

. 
. 
. *** FIGURE S-1: TWO-WAY SCATTERPLOTS OF THE DIFFERENT OPERATIONALIZATIONS OF OIL                        
. use replication_fpa_StrueverWegenast_m_short.dta, clear

. 
. * (a) Oil production vs. Petroleum reserves
. corr oil_value_nom2 f1.L_RESERVES
(obs=4969)

             |                 F.
             | oil_va~2 L_RESE~S
-------------+------------------
oil_value_~2 |   1.0000
  L_RESERVES |
         F1. |   0.6509   1.0000


. twoway  (lfit oil_value_nom2 f1.L_RESERVES) (scatter oil_value_nom2 f1.L_RESERVES, mlabel(abbrev)), ///
>                 legend(off) ytitle("Oil production") xtitle("Petroleum reserves") graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white)

. 
. * (b) Oil production vs. Oil production per capita
. corr oil_value_nom2 oil_value_nom_POP
(obs=6127)

             | oil_va~2 oil_v~OP
-------------+------------------
oil_value_~2 |   1.0000
oil_value~OP |   0.3213   1.0000


. twoway  (lfit oil_value_nom2 oil_value_nom_POP) (scatter oil_value_nom2 oil_value_nom_POP, mlabel(abbrev)), ///
>                 legend(off) ytitle("Oil production") xtitle("Oil production per capita") graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) 

.                 
. * (c) Oil production vs. Oil production/GDP             
. corr oil_value_nom2 oil_value_nom_GDP
(obs=6127)

             | oil_va~2 oil_v~DP
-------------+------------------
oil_value_~2 |   1.0000
oil_value~DP |   0.3698   1.0000


. twoway  (lfit oil_value_nom2 oil_value_nom_GDP) (scatter oil_value_nom2 oil_value_nom_GDP, mlabel(abbrev)), ///
>                 legend(off) ytitle("Oil production") xtitle("Oil production/GDP") graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white)      

. 
. * (d) Oil production vs. Net oil exports                
. corr oil_value_nom2 net_oil_exports_value2
(obs=2608)

             | oil_va~2 net_oi~2
-------------+------------------
oil_value_~2 |   1.0000
net_oil_ex~2 |   0.1843   1.0000


. twoway  (lfit oil_value_nom2 net_oil_exports_value2) (scatter oil_value_nom2 net_oil_exports_value2, mlabel(abbrev)), ///
>                 legend(off) ytitle("Oil production") xtitle("Net oil exports") graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white)

.                 
. * (e) Petroleum reserves vs. Petroleum reserves per capita
. corr L_RESERVES L_PC_RESERVES
(obs=5161)

             | L_RESE~S L_PC_R~S
-------------+------------------
  L_RESERVES |   1.0000
L_PC_RESER~S |   0.4762   1.0000


. twoway  (lfit L_RESERVES L_PC_RESERVES) (scatter L_RESERVES L_PC_RESERVES, mlabel(abbrev)), ///
>                 legend(off) ytitle("Petroleum reserves") xtitle("Petroleum reserves per capita") graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white)

. 
. * (f) Petroleum reserves vs. Net oil exports
. corr f1.L_RESERVES net_oil_exports_value2 
(obs=1786)

             |        F.         
             | L_RESE~S net_oi~2
-------------+------------------
  L_RESERVES |
         F1. |   1.0000
net_oil_ex~2 |   0.5406   1.0000


. twoway  (lfit f1.L_RESERVES net_oil_exports_value2) (scatter f1.L_RESERVES net_oil_exports_value2, mlabel(abbrev)), ///
>                 legend(off) ytitle("Petroleum reserves") xtitle("Net oil exports") graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) 

.         
. 
. *** Table S-3: CORRELATION MATRICES OF OIL MEASURES
. * (a) Correlation of oil measures (excl. net oil exports)
. corr oil_value_nom2 oil_value_nom_LOG1 oil_value_nom_POP oil_value_nom_GDP oilrent oilrent_gdp f1.L_RESERVES f1.L_RESERVES_LOG1 f1.L_PC_RESERVES jc_oil_state jc_radoil
(obs=4049)

             |                                                              F.       F.       F.                  
             | oil_va~2 oil_va~1 oil_v~OP oil_v~DP  oilrent oilren~p L_RESE~S L_RESE~1 L_PC_R~S jc_oil~e jc_rad~l
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
oil_value_~2 |   1.0000
oil_value_~1 |   0.3709   1.0000
oil_value~OP |   0.3804   0.2481   1.0000
oil_value~DP |   0.4025   0.3814   0.7202   1.0000
     oilrent |   0.9831   0.3507   0.3997   0.4240   1.0000
 oilrent_gdp |   0.4277   0.4415   0.6710   0.8908   0.4509   1.0000
  L_RESERVES |
         F1. |   0.6532   0.3116   0.4457   0.4362   0.6548   0.4789   1.0000
L_RESERVES~1 |
         F1. |   0.5743   0.7113   0.3467   0.4658   0.5486   0.5292   0.5676   1.0000
L_PC_RESER~S |
         F1. |   0.1664   0.1614   0.5139   0.3751   0.1642   0.3239   0.4715   0.3140   1.0000
jc_oil_state |   0.3235   0.4747   0.4388   0.6898   0.3284   0.7637   0.4447   0.5672   0.3172   1.0000
   jc_radoil |   0.1321   0.1637   0.0291   0.2868   0.1293   0.2052   0.1889   0.2470   0.0142   0.3405   1.0000


. * (b) Correlation of oil measures (all oil-related independent variables)
. corr oil_value_nom2 oil_value_nom_LOG1 oil_value_nom_POP oil_value_nom_GDP oilrent oilrent_gdp f1.L_RESERVES f1.L_RESERVES_LOG1 f1.L_PC_RESERVES net_oil_exports_value2 
> jc_oil_state jc_radoil
(obs=1618)

             |                                                              F.       F.       F.                           
             | oil_va~2 oil_va~1 oil_v~OP oil_v~DP  oilrent oilren~p L_RESE~S L_RESE~1 L_PC_R~S net_oi~2 jc_oil~e jc_rad~l
-------------+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
oil_value_~2 |   1.0000
oil_value_~1 |   0.4113   1.0000
oil_value~OP |   0.3800   0.2964   1.0000
oil_value~DP |   0.3296   0.4035   0.7144   1.0000
     oilrent |   0.9797   0.4113   0.4114   0.3635   1.0000
 oilrent_gdp |   0.3632   0.4514   0.5755   0.8737   0.4123   1.0000
  L_RESERVES |
         F1. |   0.6911   0.2876   0.5704   0.4712   0.7652   0.4951   1.0000
L_RESERVES~1 |
         F1. |   0.6411   0.7980   0.4682   0.5565   0.6510   0.6024   0.5284   1.0000
L_PC_RESER~S |
         F1. |   0.2514   0.1743   0.8204   0.5336   0.2776   0.4053   0.5638   0.3386   1.0000
net_oil_ex~2 |   0.0999   0.0817   0.4030   0.4096   0.2294   0.4449   0.5388   0.2733   0.2940   1.0000
jc_oil_state |   0.3254   0.4208   0.5646   0.8013   0.3675   0.8416   0.4490   0.5797   0.3691   0.4239   1.0000
   jc_radoil |   0.1883   0.1222   0.0669   0.2164   0.2005   0.1807   0.2532   0.2272   0.0338   0.2019   0.2624   1.0000


. 
. 
. ***************************
. *** I. UNDIRECTED DYADS ***
. ***************************
. use replication_fpa_StrueverWegenast_udd_short.dta, clear

. 
end of do-file

. est clear

. 
. local  controls_udd "dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3"

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-4: OIL AND MID ONSET: UNDIRECTED DYADS (SAMPLE OF NON-MISSING OBSERVATIONS)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset L_PC_RESERVES_higher `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset net_oil_exports_value2_higher_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 and cc2 i~D                                                                                                                
Lower level of dya~e       -6.510          -6.994          -7.808          -7.992          -7.998          -6.763          -5.720   
                          (5.068)         (5.584)         (7.190)         (5.507)         (7.005)         (5.338)         (5.150)   

lower dem score of~e      -0.0121        -0.00646          0.0126          0.0128          0.0309        -0.00822          0.0144   
                         (0.0400)        (0.0425)        (0.0452)        (0.0427)        (0.0467)        (0.0429)        (0.0450)   

difference between~t       0.0277          0.0307          0.0352          0.0333          0.0391+         0.0296          0.0377   
                         (0.0213)        (0.0226)        (0.0221)        (0.0218)        (0.0232)        (0.0228)        (0.0233)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.374*         -1.369*         -1.240+         -1.535*         -1.355*         -1.379*         -1.142+  
                          (0.647)         (0.646)         (0.664)         (0.613)         (0.636)         (0.648)         (0.670)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.648**        -0.665**        -0.742**        -0.390          -0.498*         -0.662**        -0.618** 
                          (0.234)         (0.236)         (0.236)         (0.269)         (0.240)         (0.238)         (0.232)   

1 if the two state~         0.159           0.191           0.216           0.212           0.242           0.179           0.216   
                          (0.199)         (0.199)         (0.193)         (0.196)         (0.191)         (0.202)         (0.197)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.209***       -0.209***       -0.217***       -0.204***       -0.209***       -0.209***       -0.207***
                         (0.0372)        (0.0374)        (0.0373)        (0.0383)        (0.0372)        (0.0374)        (0.0379)   

onset_t1                   -0.335***       -0.336***       -0.332***       -0.333***       -0.329***       -0.335***       -0.336***
                         (0.0532)        (0.0531)        (0.0529)        (0.0543)        (0.0541)        (0.0533)        (0.0535)   

onset_t2                   0.0104***       0.0104***       0.0102***       0.0105***       0.0103***       0.0104***       0.0105***
                        (0.00279)       (0.00280)       (0.00279)       (0.00284)       (0.00284)       (0.00280)       (0.00281)   

onset_t3                -0.000103**     -0.000104**     -0.000101*      -0.000106**     -0.000105**     -0.000103**     -0.000105** 
                      (0.0000395)     (0.0000395)     (0.0000395)     (0.0000400)     (0.0000400)     (0.0000396)     (0.0000397)   

oil_val~OP_higher_l1                    0.0000575                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000627)                                                                                   

oil_val~DP_higher_l1                                       0.0206*                                                                  
                                                        (0.00986)                                                                   

oil_valu~1_higher_l1                                                        0.134*                                                  
                                                                         (0.0578)                                                   

Higher level of lo~                                                                         0.196**                                 
                                                                                         (0.0714)                                   

Higher level of pc~t                                                                                      0.00495                   
                                                                                                        (0.00641)                   

net_oil_expor~her_l1                                                                                                    0.0000210*  
                                                                                                                     (0.00000930)   

Constant                    0.366           0.296          0.0424          -2.798          -0.440           0.332          -0.137   
                          (0.655)         (0.671)         (0.730)         (1.733)         (0.824)         (0.666)         (0.768)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                 9438            9438            9438            9438            9438            9438            9438   
chi2                        391.1           393.5           431.1           466.4           477.5           401.1           431.5   
r2_p                        0.281           0.281           0.284           0.286           0.288           0.281           0.284   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-5: OIL AND MID ONSET: UNDIRECTED DYADS AND ALTERNATIVE MEASUREMENTS OF OIL

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset l1.oil_value_nom2_higher `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_higher `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_POP_lower_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_GDP_lower_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_LOG1_lower_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_lower `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset L_PC_RESERVES_lower `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset net_oil_exports_value2_lower_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est8 stored)

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)             (8)   
                     1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 and cc2 i~D                                                                                                                                
L.higher level of ~o    0.0000111***                                                                                                                
                     (0.00000280)                                                                                                                   

Lower level of dya~e       -13.67*         -4.420          -12.05+         -11.94+         -11.83          -5.628          -4.512          -16.54   
                          (6.930)         (3.799)         (6.787)         (6.688)         (7.997)         (4.275)         (3.857)         (12.55)   

lower dem score of~e      -0.0242         0.00281         -0.0316         -0.0336         -0.0286          0.0133        -0.00977         -0.0397   
                         (0.0265)        (0.0285)        (0.0263)        (0.0266)        (0.0260)        (0.0284)        (0.0278)        (0.0361)   

difference between~t       0.0360***       0.0354**        0.0311**        0.0302**        0.0319**        0.0417**        0.0310*         0.0332*  
                        (0.00990)        (0.0129)       (0.00995)        (0.0101)       (0.00972)        (0.0136)        (0.0124)        (0.0155)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.903***       -1.754***       -1.764***       -1.764***       -1.390**        -1.512**        -1.787***       -1.952***
                          (0.414)         (0.468)         (0.439)         (0.438)         (0.463)         (0.480)         (0.476)         (0.563)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.243          -0.392+         -0.453**        -0.449**        -0.360*         -0.332          -0.387+         -0.543*  
                          (0.169)         (0.219)         (0.165)         (0.165)         (0.171)         (0.233)         (0.220)         (0.230)   

1 if the two state~         0.524***        0.405*          0.488**         0.485**         0.501***        0.416*          0.357*          0.419*  
                          (0.148)         (0.161)         (0.150)         (0.151)         (0.151)         (0.162)         (0.169)         (0.190)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.145***       -0.156***       -0.154***       -0.153***       -0.146***       -0.158***       -0.155***       -0.206***
                         (0.0282)        (0.0327)        (0.0286)        (0.0286)        (0.0293)        (0.0328)        (0.0328)        (0.0345)   

onset_t1                   -0.353***       -0.350***       -0.361***       -0.362***       -0.359***       -0.339***       -0.350***       -0.309***
                         (0.0283)        (0.0396)        (0.0293)        (0.0291)        (0.0286)        (0.0387)        (0.0394)        (0.0426)   

onset_t2                   0.0113***       0.0119***       0.0117***       0.0117***       0.0117***       0.0114***       0.0119***      0.00881***
                        (0.00152)       (0.00217)       (0.00158)       (0.00157)       (0.00155)       (0.00213)       (0.00216)       (0.00207)   

onset_t3                -0.000111***    -0.000130***    -0.000116***    -0.000116***    -0.000116***    -0.000123***    -0.000129***   -0.0000755** 
                      (0.0000219)     (0.0000321)     (0.0000227)     (0.0000226)     (0.0000225)     (0.0000315)     (0.0000320)     (0.0000273)   

Higher level of re~                       0.00317*                                                                                                  
                                        (0.00139)                                                                                                   

oil_valu~OP_lower_l1                                   -0.0000769                                                                                   
                                                      (0.0000743)                                                                                   

oil_valu~DP_lower_l1                                                     -0.00703                                                                   
                                                                        (0.00744)                                                                   

oil_value~1_lower_l1                                                                       0.0210**                                                 
                                                                                        (0.00747)                                                   

Lower level of log~(                                                                                        0.286***                                
                                                                                                         (0.0738)                                   

Lower level of pc ~h                                                                                                     -0.00264                   
                                                                                                                         (0.0520)                   

net_oil_expor~wer_l1                                                                                                                   -0.0000148** 
                                                                                                                                     (0.00000511)   

Constant                 0.000508           0.137           0.260           0.276          -0.419          -0.262           0.332           0.363   
                          (0.431)         (0.521)         (0.448)         (0.450)         (0.521)         (0.565)         (0.519)         (0.549)   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                29686           17922           29688           29688           29686           17922           17933           14740   
chi2                       1044.6           726.4          1037.5          1047.2          1034.8           719.3           681.9           574.3   
r2_p                        0.252           0.260           0.248           0.248           0.251           0.266           0.258           0.266   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** FIGURE S-2: PREDICTIVE MARGINS OF ABSOLUTE OIL PRODUCTION AND RESERVES ON MID ONSET (UNDIRECTED DYADS)

. 
. qui logit onset l1_oil_value_nom2_higher `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)

. do "C:\Users\struever\AppData\Local\Temp\6\STD00000000.tmp"

. mcp l1_oil_value_nom2_higher, var1(20) ci ///
>         plotopts(yscale(range(0 .12)) ylabel(0(.02).12) ytick(0(.01).12) ///
>         xtitle("Oil production, higher level", size(small)) subtitle("(a)", ring(1) pos(10)) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ///
>         saving(plot5.gph, replace)) sh
margins , at( l1_oil_value_nom2_higher=( .0035586000886 8457.208984375 16914.4140625 25371.61914063 33828.82421875 42286.02734375 50743.234375 59200.4375 67657.640625 761
> 14.8515625 84572.0546875 93029.2578125 101486.4609375 109943.671875 118400.875 126858.078125 135315.28125 143772.484375 152229.6875 160686.90625) ) 
(note: file plot5.gph not found)
(file plot5.gph saved)

. 
end of do-file

. qui logit onset L_RESERVES_higher `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)

. *** TABLE S-6: OIL AND MID ONSET: ALL UNDIRECTED DYADS

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset `controls_udd', rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1 `controls_udd', rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1 `controls_udd', rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1 `controls_udd', rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher `controls_udd', rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset L_PC_RESERVES_higher `controls_udd', rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset net_oil_exports_value2_higher_l1 `controls_udd', rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 and cc2 i~D                                                                                                                
Lower level of dya~e       -6.661          -7.949          -10.06          -9.445          -5.563          -2.056          -9.477   
                          (5.361)         (6.175)         (7.350)         (6.394)         (6.194)         (4.074)         (8.435)   

lower dem score of~e      -0.0657**       -0.0601*        -0.0414         -0.0452          0.0127         -0.0451         -0.0318   
                         (0.0249)        (0.0285)        (0.0290)        (0.0285)        (0.0297)        (0.0301)        (0.0364)   

difference between~t       0.0264**        0.0263*         0.0329**        0.0317**        0.0413**        0.0270*         0.0409*  
                        (0.00879)        (0.0103)        (0.0104)        (0.0102)        (0.0127)        (0.0130)        (0.0164)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.146**        -1.410**        -1.368**        -1.499***       -1.295*         -1.211*         -1.471** 
                          (0.393)         (0.469)         (0.473)         (0.443)         (0.508)         (0.523)         (0.546)   

1 if both states i~m       -1.512***       -1.471***       -1.510***       -1.282***       -1.055***       -1.289***       -1.396***
                          (0.174)         (0.182)         (0.181)         (0.179)         (0.202)         (0.206)         (0.202)   

1 if the two state~         0.788***        0.667***        0.699***        0.699***        0.624**         0.533*          0.584** 
                          (0.196)         (0.191)         (0.188)         (0.191)         (0.193)         (0.208)         (0.200)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.293***       -0.297***       -0.298***       -0.291***       -0.284***       -0.284***       -0.323***
                         (0.0249)        (0.0247)        (0.0245)        (0.0254)        (0.0247)        (0.0260)        (0.0306)   

onset_t1                   -0.414***       -0.424***       -0.423***       -0.413***       -0.437***       -0.440***       -0.379***
                         (0.0275)        (0.0319)        (0.0317)        (0.0314)        (0.0418)        (0.0417)        (0.0473)   

onset_t2                   0.0148***       0.0150***       0.0150***       0.0145***       0.0164***       0.0162***       0.0124***
                        (0.00138)       (0.00160)       (0.00158)       (0.00156)       (0.00211)       (0.00209)       (0.00217)   

onset_t3                -0.000156***    -0.000157***    -0.000157***    -0.000151***    -0.000185***    -0.000180***    -0.000120***
                      (0.0000193)     (0.0000219)     (0.0000217)     (0.0000215)     (0.0000290)     (0.0000288)     (0.0000275)   

oil_val~OP_higher_l1                  0.000000154                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000211)                                                                                   

oil_val~DP_higher_l1                                      0.00825***                                                                
                                                        (0.00237)                                                                   

oil_valu~1_higher_l1                                                       0.0935***                                                
                                                                         (0.0267)                                                   

Higher level of lo~                                                                         0.292***                                
                                                                                         (0.0467)                                   

Higher level of pc~t                                                                                     -0.00218                   
                                                                                                        (0.00254)                   

net_oil_expor~her_l1                                                                                                    0.0000172***
                                                                                                                     (0.00000512)   

Constant                    0.465           0.802           0.608          -1.327          -0.370           0.711           0.484   
                          (0.414)         (0.488)         (0.501)         (0.811)         (0.587)         (0.553)         (0.546)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations               215253          167419          167419          167395           96927           97111           93553   
chi2                       2404.3          1908.6          1975.0          1938.2          1557.2          1668.5          1558.2   
r2_p                        0.336           0.341           0.342           0.345           0.352           0.340           0.361   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-7: OIL AND MID ONSET: UNDIRECTED DYADS AND REGIONAL CONTROLS

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset  rg* `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1 rg* `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1 rg* `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1 rg* `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher rg* `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset L_PC_RESERVES_higher rg* `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset net_oil_exports_value2_higher_l1 rg* `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 and cc2 i~D                                                                                                                
region1==     1.0000       -0.793**        -0.796**        -0.788**        -0.694**        -0.573+         -0.715*         -1.152***
                          (0.249)         (0.251)         (0.250)         (0.248)         (0.309)         (0.308)         (0.304)   

region1==     2.0000       -0.881**        -1.006**        -1.082**        -1.013**        -0.992*         -0.780+         -1.372***
                          (0.329)         (0.338)         (0.343)         (0.336)         (0.422)         (0.412)         (0.414)   

region1==     3.0000       -0.639*         -0.596+         -0.592+         -0.480          -0.442          -0.611          -0.707+  
                          (0.314)         (0.329)         (0.332)         (0.338)         (0.460)         (0.435)         (0.383)   

region1==     4.0000        0.215          0.0120         0.00530           0.125           0.593           0.482          -0.150   
                          (0.448)         (0.435)         (0.436)         (0.432)         (0.527)         (0.534)         (0.435)   

o.region1==    ~0000            0               0               0               0               0               0               0   
                              (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)   

region2==     1.0000       -0.162          -0.175          -0.167          -0.190          0.0326         -0.0448          0.0502   
                          (0.312)         (0.324)         (0.326)         (0.319)         (0.343)         (0.349)         (0.349)   

region2==     2.0000        0.954**         0.919*          0.873*          0.840*          0.785+          0.876*          1.119*  
                          (0.353)         (0.367)         (0.372)         (0.362)         (0.430)         (0.415)         (0.467)   

region2==     3.0000      -0.0629          -0.295          -0.290          -0.309          -0.538          -0.538           0.609   
                          (0.354)         (0.387)         (0.391)         (0.377)         (0.477)         (0.486)         (0.430)   

region2==     4.0000       0.0994          0.0531          0.0831         0.00743          -0.343          -0.384           0.305   
                          (0.466)         (0.462)         (0.466)         (0.451)         (0.532)         (0.549)         (0.459)   

o.region2==    ~0000            0               0               0               0               0               0               0   
                              (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)   

Lower level of dya~e       -10.34**        -11.10**        -12.30**        -12.26**        -6.537+         -4.986          -12.02+  
                          (3.928)         (4.281)         (4.633)         (4.360)         (3.738)         (3.700)         (7.007)   

lower dem score of~e     -0.00130         -0.0151        -0.00788         -0.0104          0.0131        -0.00227          0.0365   
                         (0.0226)        (0.0251)        (0.0256)        (0.0257)        (0.0352)        (0.0332)        (0.0404)   

difference between~t       0.0293**        0.0218*         0.0251*         0.0248*         0.0253+         0.0193          0.0486** 
                        (0.00900)        (0.0101)        (0.0102)        (0.0103)        (0.0152)        (0.0142)        (0.0174)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.650***       -1.977***       -1.993***       -2.078***       -2.224***       -2.047***       -1.966***
                          (0.386)         (0.443)         (0.439)         (0.424)         (0.498)         (0.515)         (0.538)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.535*         -0.555**        -0.555**        -0.443*         -0.241          -0.492+         -0.827***
                          (0.208)         (0.194)         (0.196)         (0.185)         (0.266)         (0.257)         (0.223)   

1 if the two state~         0.793***        0.540***        0.565***        0.567***        0.469**         0.392*          0.472** 
                          (0.160)         (0.152)         (0.151)         (0.150)         (0.172)         (0.177)         (0.178)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.131***       -0.149***       -0.151***       -0.141***       -0.137***       -0.143***       -0.212***
                         (0.0351)        (0.0335)        (0.0338)        (0.0325)        (0.0383)        (0.0381)        (0.0335)   

onset_t1                   -0.333***       -0.341***       -0.341***       -0.337***       -0.336***       -0.337***       -0.287***
                         (0.0239)        (0.0274)        (0.0274)        (0.0275)        (0.0374)        (0.0368)        (0.0398)   

onset_t2                   0.0112***       0.0111***       0.0111***       0.0109***       0.0116***       0.0116***      0.00777***
                        (0.00134)       (0.00152)       (0.00152)       (0.00152)       (0.00212)       (0.00209)       (0.00202)   

onset_t3                -0.000115***    -0.000110***    -0.000110***    -0.000108***    -0.000128***    -0.000127***   -0.0000638*  
                      (0.0000199)     (0.0000222)     (0.0000221)     (0.0000221)     (0.0000314)     (0.0000312)     (0.0000270)   

oil_val~OP_higher_l1                   -0.0000196                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000252)                                                                                   

oil_val~DP_higher_l1                                      0.00381                                                                   
                                                        (0.00259)                                                                   

oil_valu~1_higher_l1                                                       0.0416                                                   
                                                                         (0.0255)                                                   

Higher level of lo~                                                                         0.174**                                 
                                                                                         (0.0629)                                   

Higher level of pc~t                                                                                     -0.00424                   
                                                                                                        (0.00323)                   

net_oil_expor~her_l1                                                                                                    0.0000211** 
                                                                                                                     (0.00000710)   

Constant                   -0.120           0.641           0.573          -0.313           0.108           0.687           0.383   
                          (0.431)         (0.497)         (0.501)         (0.788)         (0.687)         (0.644)         (0.605)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                34424           29688           29688           29686           17922           17933           14740   
chi2                       1408.3          1219.6          1210.5          1213.0           816.2           806.4           646.0   
r2_p                        0.248           0.265           0.265           0.266           0.278           0.275           0.282   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-8: OIL AND MID ONSET: UNDIRECTED DYADS AND NON-FATAL MIDS

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfat
> al_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance on
> set_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance on
> set_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance o
> nset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_n
> onfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal L_PC_RESERVES_higher dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_non
> fatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal net_oil_exports_value2_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distan
> ce onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 a~n    1 if cc1 a~n    1 if cc1 a~n    1 if cc1 a~n    1 if cc1 a~n    1 if cc1 a~n    1 if cc1 a~n   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 and cc2 i~n                                                                                                                
Lower level of dya~e       -11.26          -12.09          -13.48          -13.23          -4.594          -3.684          -11.67   
                          (8.009)         (8.327)         (9.432)         (8.126)         (4.154)         (3.908)         (11.47)   

lower dem score of~e     -0.00334         -0.0101         0.00255         0.00530          0.0290        -0.00826          0.0238   
                         (0.0260)        (0.0281)        (0.0286)        (0.0279)        (0.0297)        (0.0299)        (0.0381)   

difference between~t       0.0406***       0.0326**        0.0377***       0.0395***       0.0387**        0.0271*         0.0562** 
                        (0.00974)        (0.0103)        (0.0104)        (0.0105)        (0.0136)        (0.0133)        (0.0180)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.313**        -1.748***       -1.720***       -1.882***       -2.246***       -2.222***       -2.225***
                          (0.440)         (0.469)         (0.471)         (0.434)         (0.490)         (0.528)         (0.596)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.687***       -0.657***       -0.694***       -0.455**        -0.562**        -0.706***       -0.903***
                          (0.178)         (0.177)         (0.180)         (0.168)         (0.210)         (0.211)         (0.214)   

1 if the two state~         0.516**         0.394*          0.412*          0.412*          0.287+          0.214           0.229   
                          (0.188)         (0.167)         (0.168)         (0.164)         (0.169)         (0.181)         (0.192)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.201***       -0.205***       -0.209***       -0.197***       -0.212***       -0.208***       -0.251***
                         (0.0296)        (0.0300)        (0.0302)        (0.0297)        (0.0338)        (0.0338)        (0.0334)   

onset_nonfatal_t1          -0.315***       -0.307***       -0.305***       -0.291***       -0.299***       -0.301***       -0.258***
                         (0.0306)        (0.0330)        (0.0330)        (0.0329)        (0.0437)        (0.0433)        (0.0421)   

onset_nonfatal_t2          0.0107***       0.0102***       0.0101***      0.00946***       0.0103***       0.0103***      0.00770***
                        (0.00156)       (0.00170)       (0.00170)       (0.00168)       (0.00228)       (0.00228)       (0.00205)   

onset_nonfatal_t3       -0.000111***    -0.000104***    -0.000103***   -0.0000963***    -0.000113***    -0.000112***   -0.0000721** 
                      (0.0000217)     (0.0000236)     (0.0000234)     (0.0000231)     (0.0000321)     (0.0000322)     (0.0000270)   

oil_val~OP_higher_l1                    0.0000136                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000221)                                                                                   

oil_val~DP_higher_l1                                      0.00627*                                                                  
                                                        (0.00278)                                                                   

oil_valu~1_higher_l1                                                       0.0917***                                                
                                                                         (0.0273)                                                   

Higher level of lo~                                                                         0.202***                                
                                                                                         (0.0572)                                   

Higher level of pc~t                                                                                    -0.000263                   
                                                                                                        (0.00296)                   

net_oil_expor~her_l1                                                                                                    0.0000169*  
                                                                                                                     (0.00000674)   

Constant                   -0.595        -0.00712          -0.135          -2.090**        -0.109           0.664           0.198   
                          (0.439)         (0.474)         (0.487)         (0.786)         (0.593)         (0.548)         (0.617)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                34275           29583           29583           29581           17858           17869           14689   
chi2                        705.2           687.5           723.7           760.6           643.3           546.6           452.4   
r2_p                        0.180           0.193           0.194           0.198           0.215           0.209           0.223   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-9: OIL AND MID ONSET: UNDIRECTED DYADS AND FATAL MIDS

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 ons
> et_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset
> _fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset
> _fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onse
> t_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_fata
> l_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal L_PC_RESERVES_higher dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_fatal_
> t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal net_oil_exports_value2_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance 
> onset_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 a~t    1 if cc1 a~t    1 if cc1 a~t    1 if cc1 a~t    1 if cc1 a~t    1 if cc1 a~t    1 if cc1 a~t   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 and cc2 i~t                                                                                                                
Lower level of dya~e       -47.22          -117.9          -125.5          -128.2          -198.7          -179.6          -59.49   
                          (31.87)         (85.87)         (87.87)         (88.10)         (169.3)         (167.5)         (66.65)   

lower dem score of~e      -0.0473         -0.0511         -0.0394         -0.0343          0.0992          0.0472         -0.0667   
                         (0.0546)        (0.0719)        (0.0716)        (0.0718)        (0.0806)        (0.0831)        (0.0974)   

difference between~t       0.0624***       0.0709**        0.0759***       0.0775***        0.100**        0.0868**        0.0610+  
                         (0.0171)        (0.0216)        (0.0216)        (0.0218)        (0.0306)        (0.0300)        (0.0328)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.614+         -2.246*         -2.284*         -2.377*         -1.052          -0.801          -1.880+  
                          (0.864)         (1.027)         (1.032)         (0.987)         (1.126)         (1.113)         (1.028)   

1 if both states i~m        0.176           0.245           0.231           0.274           1.759+          1.575           0.391   
                          (0.381)         (0.394)         (0.398)         (0.417)         (1.012)         (1.026)         (0.650)   

1 if the two state~         2.659***        2.141***        2.201***        2.201***        2.280***        2.249***        2.117** 
                          (0.491)         (0.511)         (0.510)         (0.503)         (0.649)         (0.648)         (0.688)   

log distance betwe~2       0.0690          0.0117          0.0139          0.0156          0.0682          0.0756          0.0352   
                         (0.0948)        (0.0986)        (0.0992)        (0.0985)         (0.179)         (0.180)         (0.145)   

onset_fatal_t1             -0.242***       -0.255***       -0.258***       -0.255***       -0.225**        -0.218**       -0.0699   
                         (0.0560)        (0.0680)        (0.0684)        (0.0691)        (0.0847)        (0.0840)        (0.0961)   

onset_fatal_t2            0.00709**       0.00608+        0.00619*        0.00604+        0.00662         0.00608        -0.00110   
                        (0.00269)       (0.00311)       (0.00312)       (0.00315)       (0.00439)       (0.00432)       (0.00414)   

onset_fatal_t3         -0.0000613+     -0.0000370      -0.0000384      -0.0000371      -0.0000681      -0.0000595       0.0000370   
                      (0.0000363)     (0.0000397)     (0.0000398)     (0.0000400)     (0.0000620)     (0.0000614)     (0.0000500)   

oil_val~OP_higher_l1                    -0.000122                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000858)                                                                                   

oil_val~DP_higher_l1                                    -0.000491                                                                   
                                                        (0.00589)                                                                   

oil_valu~1_higher_l1                                                       0.0288                                                   
                                                                         (0.0601)                                                   

Higher level of lo~                                                                         0.231**                                 
                                                                                         (0.0792)                                   

Higher level of pc~t                                                                                      0.00368                   
                                                                                                        (0.00484)                   

net_oil_expor~her_l1                                                                                                   0.00000309   
                                                                                                                      (0.0000186)   

Constant                   -4.380***       -3.114*         -3.200*         -3.768+         -6.514***       -5.911**        -4.219*  
                          (1.147)         (1.301)         (1.307)         (1.961)         (1.793)         (1.819)         (1.748)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                34275           29583           29583           29581           17858           17869           14689   
chi2                        403.3           359.1           382.7           366.9           157.6           160.8           244.7   
r2_p                        0.176           0.214           0.212           0.213           0.250           0.243           0.176   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-10: OIL AND MID ONSET: UNDIRECTED DYADS AND THE IMPACT OF REVOLUTIONARY PETROSTATES

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset l1.jc_radoil_any `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1 ROL_oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1 ROL_oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1 ROL_oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher ROL_L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset L_PC_RESERVES_higher ROL_L_PC_RESERVES_higher `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset net_oil_exports_value2_higher_l1 ROL_net_oil_exp_value2_higher_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 and cc2 i~D                                                                                                                
L.jc_radoil_any             0.813***                                                                                                
                          (0.162)                                                                                                   

Lower level of dya~e       -9.156          -11.66          -13.81          -13.53+         -6.248          -5.213          -12.18   
                          (5.688)         (7.108)         (8.809)         (7.165)         (4.681)         (4.525)         (10.38)   

lower dem score of~e     0.000552         -0.0170         -0.0114         -0.0188          0.0314          0.0154        -0.00610   
                         (0.0243)        (0.0270)        (0.0278)        (0.0259)        (0.0289)        (0.0297)        (0.0363)   

difference between~t       0.0458***       0.0373***       0.0395***       0.0379***       0.0408**        0.0353**        0.0497** 
                        (0.00978)        (0.0104)        (0.0106)       (0.00997)        (0.0131)        (0.0131)        (0.0168)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.332**        -1.601***       -1.559***       -1.824***       -1.620**        -1.449**        -1.736** 
                          (0.411)         (0.463)         (0.471)         (0.426)         (0.504)         (0.531)         (0.581)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.325*         -0.387*         -0.392*         -0.309+         -0.300          -0.427*         -0.538*  
                          (0.158)         (0.162)         (0.166)         (0.161)         (0.214)         (0.212)         (0.219)   

1 if the two state~         0.687***        0.463**         0.492**         0.508***        0.412*          0.346+          0.397*  
                          (0.185)         (0.160)         (0.158)         (0.150)         (0.163)         (0.180)         (0.175)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.130***       -0.153***       -0.151***       -0.145***       -0.162***       -0.165***       -0.179***
                         (0.0293)        (0.0283)        (0.0287)        (0.0282)        (0.0323)        (0.0314)        (0.0359)   

onset_t1                   -0.341***       -0.354***       -0.346***       -0.350***       -0.341***       -0.339***       -0.308***
                         (0.0254)        (0.0288)        (0.0285)        (0.0291)        (0.0396)        (0.0390)        (0.0425)   

onset_t2                   0.0112***       0.0115***       0.0110***       0.0111***       0.0116***       0.0115***      0.00875***
                        (0.00138)       (0.00156)       (0.00155)       (0.00155)       (0.00218)       (0.00217)       (0.00209)   

onset_t3                -0.000113***    -0.000114***    -0.000108***    -0.000108***    -0.000127***    -0.000126***   -0.0000753** 
                      (0.0000203)     (0.0000225)     (0.0000224)     (0.0000222)     (0.0000323)     (0.0000324)     (0.0000277)   

oil_val~OP_higher_l1                  -0.00000351                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000241)                                                                                   

ROL_oil~OP_higher_l1                        0.638***                                                                                
                                          (0.176)                                                                                   

oil_val~DP_higher_l1                                      0.00136                                                                   
                                                        (0.00269)                                                                   

ROL_oil~DP_higher_l1                                        0.679***                                                                
                                                          (0.183)                                                                   

oil_valu~1_higher_l1                                                       0.0639*                                                  
                                                                         (0.0269)                                                   

ROL_oil_~1_higher_l1                                                        0.144                                                   
                                                                          (0.158)                                                   

Higher level of lo~                                                                         0.151**                                 
                                                                                         (0.0520)                                   

ROL_L_RESERVES_LOG~r                                                                        0.461*                                  
                                                                                          (0.235)                                   

Higher level of pc~t                                                                                      0.00109                   
                                                                                                        (0.00296)                   

ROL_L_PC_RESERVES_~r                                                                                        0.747**                 
                                                                                                          (0.232)                   

net_oil_expor~her_l1                                                                                                   0.00000763   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000738)   

ROL_net_oil_exp_va~1                                                                                                        0.377   
                                                                                                                          (0.247)   

Constant                   -0.781+        -0.0874          -0.212          -1.257          -0.495          -0.144         -0.0427   
                          (0.446)         (0.487)         (0.502)         (0.798)         (0.611)         (0.595)         (0.622)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                31385           29204           29186           29400           17784           17723           14321   
chi2                       1127.8          1034.0          1030.6          1102.9           699.8           673.9           569.0   
r2_p                        0.241           0.254           0.255           0.254           0.267           0.265           0.263   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-11: OIL AND MID ONSET: UNDIRECTED DYADS AND THE IMPACT OF REVOLUTIONARY PETROSTATES ON THE OUTBREAK OF NON-FATAL DISPUTES

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal l1.jc_radoil_any dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfata
> l_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1 ROL_oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bot
> hminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1 ROL_oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bot
> hminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1 ROL_oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 b
> othminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher ROL_L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor con
> tigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal L_PC_RESERVES_higher ROL_L_PC_RESERVES_higher dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigl
> and ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal net_oil_exports_value2_higher_l1 ROL_net_oil_exp_value2_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_
> l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 a~n    1 if cc1 a~n    1 if cc1 a~n    1 if cc1 a~n    1 if cc1 a~n    1 if cc1 a~n    1 if cc1 a~n   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 and cc2 i~n                                                                                                                
L.jc_radoil_any             0.980***                                                                                                
                          (0.164)                                                                                                   

Lower level of dya~e       -8.410          -10.86          -12.76          -13.13          -4.942          -4.011          -11.96   
                          (7.161)         (8.357)         (10.15)         (8.664)         (5.087)         (4.795)         (12.66)   

lower dem score of~e       0.0308         0.00514         0.00853          0.0101          0.0402          0.0196          0.0287   
                         (0.0260)        (0.0286)        (0.0297)        (0.0277)        (0.0312)        (0.0316)        (0.0386)   

difference between~t       0.0524***       0.0392***       0.0403***       0.0416***       0.0383**        0.0320*         0.0570** 
                         (0.0104)        (0.0108)        (0.0110)        (0.0104)        (0.0139)        (0.0139)        (0.0183)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.252**        -1.557**        -1.512**        -1.795***       -1.987***       -1.893***       -2.107***
                          (0.450)         (0.481)         (0.489)         (0.449)         (0.528)         (0.567)         (0.615)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.456**        -0.565**        -0.569**        -0.460**        -0.628**        -0.751***       -0.820***
                          (0.174)         (0.175)         (0.180)         (0.169)         (0.209)         (0.211)         (0.219)   

1 if the two state~         0.556**         0.354*          0.370*          0.389*          0.245           0.184           0.253   
                          (0.203)         (0.176)         (0.177)         (0.165)         (0.180)         (0.194)         (0.192)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.176***       -0.202***       -0.200***       -0.195***       -0.217***       -0.217***       -0.241***
                         (0.0308)        (0.0302)        (0.0307)        (0.0298)        (0.0331)        (0.0330)        (0.0335)   

onset_nonfatal_t1          -0.290***       -0.299***       -0.291***       -0.287***       -0.293***       -0.294***       -0.249***
                         (0.0312)        (0.0332)        (0.0335)        (0.0333)        (0.0436)        (0.0437)        (0.0420)   

onset_nonfatal_t2         0.00975***      0.00997***      0.00955***      0.00924***       0.0103***       0.0103***      0.00733***
                        (0.00158)       (0.00171)       (0.00172)       (0.00170)       (0.00232)       (0.00233)       (0.00206)   

onset_nonfatal_t3       -0.000101***    -0.000103***   -0.0000976***   -0.0000935***    -0.000114***    -0.000114***   -0.0000680*  
                      (0.0000220)     (0.0000236)     (0.0000238)     (0.0000234)     (0.0000331)     (0.0000334)     (0.0000271)   

oil_val~OP_higher_l1                   0.00000733                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000243)                                                                                   

ROL_oil~OP_higher_l1                        0.763***                                                                                
                                          (0.183)                                                                                   

oil_val~DP_higher_l1                                      0.00134                                                                   
                                                        (0.00288)                                                                   

ROL_oil~DP_higher_l1                                        0.791***                                                                
                                                          (0.181)                                                                   

oil_valu~1_higher_l1                                                       0.0786**                                                 
                                                                         (0.0287)                                                   

ROL_oil_~1_higher_l1                                                        0.361*                                                  
                                                                          (0.174)                                                   

Higher level of lo~                                                                         0.157**                                 
                                                                                         (0.0603)                                   

ROL_L_RESERVES_LOG~r                                                                        0.633**                                 
                                                                                          (0.243)                                   

Higher level of pc~t                                                                                      0.00135                   
                                                                                                        (0.00338)                   

ROL_L_PC_RESERVES_~r                                                                                        0.822***                
                                                                                                          (0.240)                   

net_oil_expor~her_l1                                                                                                    0.0000132+  
                                                                                                                     (0.00000753)   

ROL_net_oil_exp_va~1                                                                                                        0.376+  
                                                                                                                          (0.219)   

Constant                   -1.212**        -0.421          -0.522          -1.958*         -0.288           0.173         -0.0735   
                          (0.467)         (0.505)         (0.521)         (0.822)         (0.635)         (0.614)         (0.647)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                31263           29099           29081           29295           17720           17659           14271   
chi2                        793.1           758.0           769.1           801.2           581.4           574.9           446.6   
r2_p                        0.192           0.200           0.201           0.201           0.220           0.217           0.222   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-12: OIL AND MID ONSET: UNDIRECTED DYADS AND THE IMPACT OF REVOLUTIONARY GOVERNMENTS

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset l1.jc_radicalleader_any `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
variable jc_radicalleader_any not found
r(111);

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset c.oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1##RL_oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
variable RL_oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1 not found
r(111);

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset c.oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1##RL_oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
variable RL_oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1 not found
r(111);

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset c.oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1##RL_oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
variable RL_oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1 not found
r(111);

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset c.L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher##RL_L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
variable RL_L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher not found
r(111);

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset c.L_PC_RESERVES_higher##RL_L_PC_RESERVES_higher `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
variable RL_L_PC_RESERVES_higher not found
r(111);

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset c.net_oil_exports_value2_higher_l1##RL_net_oil_exp_value2_higher_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
variable RL_net_oil_exp_value2_higher_l1 not found
r(111);

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------
                              (1)   
                     1 if cc1 a~n   
------------------------------------
1 if cc1 and cc2 i~n                
net_oil_expor~her_l1    0.0000132+  
                     (0.00000753)   

ROL_net_oil_exp_va~1        0.376+  
                          (0.219)   

Lower level of dya~e       -11.96   
                          (12.66)   

lower dem score of~e       0.0287   
                         (0.0386)   

difference between~t       0.0570** 
                         (0.0183)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -2.107***
                          (0.615)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.820***
                          (0.219)   

1 if the two state~         0.253   
                          (0.192)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.241***
                         (0.0335)   

onset_nonfatal_t1          -0.249***
                         (0.0420)   

onset_nonfatal_t2         0.00733***
                        (0.00206)   

onset_nonfatal_t3      -0.0000680*  
                      (0.0000271)   

Constant                  -0.0735   
                          (0.647)   
------------------------------------
Observations                14271   
chi2                        446.6   
r2_p                        0.222   
------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-13: OIL AND MID ONSET: UNDIRECTED DYADS AND THE IMPACT OF REVOLUTIONARY GOVERNMENTS ON THE OUTBREAK OF NON-FATAL DISPUTES

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal l1.jc_radicalleader_any dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_
> nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
variable jc_radicalleader_any not found
r(111);

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal c.oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1##RL_oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 b
> othminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
variable RL_oil_value_nom_POP_higher_l1 not found
r(111);

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal c.oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1##RL_oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 b
> othminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
variable RL_oil_value_nom_GDP_higher_l1 not found
r(111);

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal c.oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1##RL_oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1
>  bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
variable RL_oil_value_nom_LOG1_higher_l1 not found
r(111);

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal c.L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher##RL_L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor c
> ontigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
variable RL_L_RESERVES_LOG1_higher not found
r(111);

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal c.L_PC_RESERVES_higher##RL_L_PC_RESERVES_higher dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 bothminor conti
> gland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
variable RL_L_PC_RESERVES_higher not found
r(111);

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal c.net_oil_exports_value2_higher_l1##RL_net_oil_exp_value2_higher_l1 dyadictradedep_lower_l1 democ_lower_l1 polity2diff_l1 balanceofforc
> e_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
variable RL_net_oil_exp_value2_higher_l1 not found
r(111);

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------
                              (1)   
                     1 if cc1 a~n   
------------------------------------
1 if cc1 and cc2 i~n                
net_oil_expor~her_l1    0.0000132+  
                     (0.00000753)   

ROL_net_oil_exp_va~1        0.376+  
                          (0.219)   

Lower level of dya~e       -11.96   
                          (12.66)   

lower dem score of~e       0.0287   
                         (0.0386)   

difference between~t       0.0570** 
                         (0.0183)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -2.107***
                          (0.615)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.820***
                          (0.219)   

1 if the two state~         0.253   
                          (0.192)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.241***
                         (0.0335)   

onset_nonfatal_t1          -0.249***
                         (0.0420)   

onset_nonfatal_t2         0.00733***
                        (0.00206)   

onset_nonfatal_t3      -0.0000680*  
                      (0.0000271)   

Constant                  -0.0735   
                          (0.647)   
------------------------------------
Observations                14271   
chi2                        446.6   
r2_p                        0.222   
------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-14: POSSIBLE PATHWAYS LINKING OIL TO MID ONSET: UNDIRECTED DYADS

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset milex_higher2_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset armsimports_higher_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset onepolautonomy_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset taxgdp_best_lower_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset lnontaxrev2_higher `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oneincidencev412_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset maccetot_higher_l1 `controls_udd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D    1 if cc1 a~D   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 and cc2 i~D                                                                                                                
milex_higher2_l1          0.00419***                                                                                                
                       (0.000868)                                                                                                   

Lower level of dya~e       -12.24+         -10.53+         -10.65+         -6.071          -13.80          -6.930          -17.74   
                          (6.492)         (5.922)         (5.991)         (4.199)         (8.925)         (5.163)         (17.27)   

lower dem score of~e      -0.0304         -0.0118         -0.0234          0.0320         -0.0261         -0.0222          0.0186   
                         (0.0245)        (0.0219)        (0.0271)        (0.0318)        (0.0335)        (0.0229)        (0.0283)   

difference between~t       0.0352***       0.0347***       0.0369***       0.0382**        0.0219          0.0366***       0.0314** 
                        (0.00882)       (0.00846)       (0.00886)        (0.0147)        (0.0158)       (0.00874)        (0.0121)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.429***       -1.421***       -1.362***       -1.465**        -1.849**        -1.195**        -1.690***
                          (0.384)         (0.406)         (0.395)         (0.553)         (0.618)         (0.377)         (0.485)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.275+         -0.330+         -0.507**        -0.495*         -0.424          -0.465**        -0.196   
                          (0.166)         (0.195)         (0.165)         (0.221)         (0.307)         (0.169)         (0.249)   

1 if the two state~         0.647***        0.660***        0.641***        0.354*          0.569**         0.633***        0.497** 
                          (0.172)         (0.168)         (0.173)         (0.159)         (0.207)         (0.170)         (0.177)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.155***       -0.134***       -0.145***       -0.213***       -0.141**        -0.142***       -0.151***
                         (0.0278)        (0.0299)        (0.0285)        (0.0388)        (0.0486)        (0.0295)        (0.0427)   

onset_t1                   -0.350***       -0.340***       -0.361***       -0.314***       -0.352***       -0.339***       -0.322***
                         (0.0251)        (0.0262)        (0.0256)        (0.0371)        (0.0425)        (0.0258)        (0.0404)   

onset_t2                   0.0116***       0.0110***       0.0122***      0.00987***       0.0115***       0.0112***       0.0102***
                        (0.00136)       (0.00142)       (0.00139)       (0.00196)       (0.00233)       (0.00138)       (0.00229)   

onset_t3                -0.000117***    -0.000108***    -0.000124***   -0.0000984***    -0.000119***    -0.000112***    -0.000100** 
                      (0.0000201)     (0.0000208)     (0.0000205)     (0.0000278)     (0.0000342)     (0.0000202)     (0.0000343)   

armsimports_higher~1                     0.000291***                                                                                
                                      (0.0000482)                                                                                   

onepolautonomy_l1                                          0.0129                                                                   
                                                          (0.119)                                                                   

taxgdp_best_lower_l1                                                       -4.951***                                                
                                                                          (0.923)                                                   

Higher level of no~i                                                                        0.683+                                  
                                                                                          (0.413)                                   

oneincidencev412_l1                                                                                         0.502***                
                                                                                                          (0.107)                   

maccetot_higher_l1                                                                                                          0.151***
                                                                                                                         (0.0324)   

Constant                   -0.494          -0.637          -0.333           0.591           0.196          -0.754+         -0.599   
                          (0.402)         (0.425)         (0.432)         (0.591)         (0.715)         (0.411)         (0.568)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                33369           32397           33970           16953           13026           34424           13309   
chi2                       1139.2          1054.5          1146.2           656.5           465.1          1152.1           676.6   
r2_p                        0.237           0.244           0.230           0.281           0.275           0.234           0.299   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. **************************

. 
. *** II. DIRECTED DYADS ***

. 
. **************************

. 
. use replication_fpa_StrueverWegenast_dd_short.dta, clear

. 
. local  controls_dd "c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor con
> tigland ln_distance onset_t1 onset_t2 onset_t3"

. 
. est clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-15: OIL AND MID ONSET: DIRECTED DYADS (SAMPLE OF NON-MISSING OBSERVATIONS)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_POP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_POP_c2_l1 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_GDP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_GDP_c2_l1 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2_l1 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1 L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset L_PC_RESERVES_c1 L_PC_RESERVES_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1 net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 initiated~t                                                                                                                
dyadic trade depen~1        1.171           0.988           0.775           1.029          -0.208           1.017           0.749   
                          (2.139)         (2.197)         (2.284)         (1.968)         (1.900)         (2.170)         (2.159)   

dyadic trade depen~2       -2.657          -2.970          -3.107          -2.912          -3.472+         -2.955          -2.557   
                          (2.166)         (2.284)         (2.345)         (2.161)         (2.061)         (2.317)         (2.137)   

institutionalized ~c      -0.0417         -0.0371         -0.0326         -0.0430         -0.0304         -0.0356         -0.0373   
                         (0.0415)        (0.0413)        (0.0409)        (0.0417)        (0.0415)        (0.0415)        (0.0462)   

institutionalized ~c       0.0120          0.0146          0.0229          0.0115          0.0414          0.0148         0.00628   
                         (0.0330)        (0.0328)        (0.0334)        (0.0337)        (0.0362)        (0.0336)        (0.0356)   

difference between~t       0.0413***       0.0429***       0.0436***       0.0380**        0.0374**        0.0432***       0.0410***
                         (0.0123)        (0.0123)        (0.0122)        (0.0126)        (0.0126)        (0.0123)        (0.0120)   

Interaction of c1'~r      0.00131         0.00119         0.00134         0.00160         0.00245         0.00106         0.00114   
                        (0.00265)       (0.00262)       (0.00255)       (0.00266)       (0.00280)       (0.00265)       (0.00276)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -2.107***       -2.123***       -2.091***       -2.161***       -2.006***       -2.143***       -2.100***
                          (0.552)         (0.552)         (0.547)         (0.540)         (0.536)         (0.555)         (0.551)   

initiators p(win) ~         0.836**         0.824**         0.832**         0.570           0.706*          0.814**         0.845** 
                          (0.273)         (0.274)         (0.275)         (0.348)         (0.284)         (0.275)         (0.276)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.724***       -0.745***       -0.778***       -0.629**        -0.573**        -0.757***       -0.718***
                          (0.207)         (0.205)         (0.204)         (0.221)         (0.210)         (0.207)         (0.207)   

1 if the two state~         0.363*          0.410*          0.425*          0.397*          0.529**         0.421*          0.370*  
                          (0.184)         (0.175)         (0.175)         (0.183)         (0.173)         (0.179)         (0.186)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.238***       -0.237***       -0.241***       -0.233***       -0.236***       -0.237***       -0.239***
                         (0.0345)        (0.0348)        (0.0348)        (0.0351)        (0.0347)        (0.0349)        (0.0342)   

onset_t1                   -0.225***       -0.228***       -0.226***       -0.226***       -0.225***       -0.223***       -0.225***
                         (0.0438)        (0.0437)        (0.0434)        (0.0439)        (0.0437)        (0.0432)        (0.0438)   

onset_t2                  0.00630**       0.00641**       0.00632**       0.00646**       0.00658**       0.00621**       0.00629** 
                        (0.00213)       (0.00213)       (0.00212)       (0.00215)       (0.00214)       (0.00211)       (0.00213)   

onset_t3               -0.0000562*     -0.0000576*     -0.0000564*     -0.0000593*     -0.0000625*     -0.0000553*     -0.0000559*  
                      (0.0000283)     (0.0000284)     (0.0000282)     (0.0000289)     (0.0000286)     (0.0000282)     (0.0000284)   

oil_value_nom_P~1_l1                    0.0000210                                                                                   
                                       (0.000138)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_P~2_l1                     0.000116+                                                                                  
                                      (0.0000628)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~1_l1                                       0.0125                                                                   
                                                         (0.0105)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~2_l1                                       0.0189*                                                                  
                                                        (0.00949)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~1_l1                                                       0.0224*                                                  
                                                                         (0.0105)                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~2_l1                                                     -0.00349                                                   
                                                                         (0.0103)                                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.202***                                
                                                                                         (0.0519)                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.138*                                  
                                                                                         (0.0562)                                   

per capita version~S                                                                                      -0.0218                   
                                                                                                         (0.0199)                   

per capita version~S                                                                                       0.0223***                
                                                                                                        (0.00599)                   

net_oil_exports~1_l1                                                                                                  0.000000788   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000805)   

net_oil_exports~2_l1                                                                                                  -0.00000419   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000673)   

Constant                   -0.572          -0.629          -0.769          -0.760          -1.306*         -0.623          -0.582   
                          (0.555)         (0.557)         (0.571)         (0.621)         (0.627)         (0.559)         (0.553)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                23390           23390           23390           23390           23390           23390           23390   
chi2                        533.7           537.7           596.8           539.1           633.5           543.4           550.3   
r2_p                        0.205           0.206           0.208           0.207           0.217           0.207           0.205   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-16: OIL AND MID ONSET: DIRECTED DYADS AND THE ROLE OF REVISIONISM

. 
. eststo: qui logit revisionist c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bot
> hminor contigland ln_distance revisionist_t1 revisionist_t2 revisionist_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit revisionist oil_value_nom_POP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_POP_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity
> 2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance revisionist_t1 revisionist_t2 revisionist_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit revisionist oil_value_nom_GDP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_GDP_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity
> 2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance revisionist_t1 revisionist_t2 revisionist_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit revisionist oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_poli
> ty2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance revisionist_t1 revisionist_t2 revisionist_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit revisionist L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1 L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 
> balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance revisionist_t1 revisionist_t2 revisionist_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit revisionist L_PC_RESERVES_c1 L_PC_RESERVES_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 bala
> nceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance revisionist_t1 revisionist_t2 revisionist_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit revisionist net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1 net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1
>  c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance revisionist_t1 revisionist_t2 revisionist_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 r~     1 if cc1 r~     1 if cc1 r~     1 if cc1 r~     1 if cc1 r~     1 if cc1 r~     1 if cc1 r~    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 revised t~                                                                                                                 
dyadic trade depen~1        1.073           0.815           0.463           0.641           0.249           1.308          -0.437   
                          (1.357)         (1.408)         (1.461)         (1.280)         (1.192)         (1.434)         (2.697)   

dyadic trade depen~2       -0.635          -0.507          -0.771          -0.577          -0.318           0.687          -4.888   
                          (2.798)         (2.514)         (2.418)         (2.467)         (2.144)         (2.353)         (3.261)   

institutionalized ~c       -0.125***      -0.0976**       -0.0931**        -0.101**        -0.119***       -0.125***      -0.0375   
                         (0.0343)        (0.0333)        (0.0332)        (0.0342)        (0.0343)        (0.0346)        (0.0442)   

institutionalized ~c       0.0657*         0.0574*         0.0631*         0.0534+          0.104***       0.0789**      -0.00402   
                         (0.0297)        (0.0280)        (0.0283)        (0.0293)        (0.0295)        (0.0285)        (0.0327)   

difference between~t       0.0455***       0.0474***       0.0487***       0.0445***       0.0370***       0.0370***       0.0522***
                        (0.00748)       (0.00759)       (0.00756)       (0.00747)       (0.00820)       (0.00830)        (0.0114)   

Interaction of c1'~r      0.00477*        0.00388*        0.00392*        0.00394+        0.00582**       0.00507**       0.00136   
                        (0.00200)       (0.00195)       (0.00195)       (0.00205)       (0.00198)       (0.00194)       (0.00263)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.253***       -1.443***       -1.460***       -1.564***       -1.335***       -1.129**        -2.197***
                          (0.376)         (0.387)         (0.386)         (0.373)         (0.376)         (0.406)         (0.531)   

initiators p(win) ~         0.565**         0.607***        0.603***        0.367+          0.509*          0.527**         0.969***
                          (0.179)         (0.180)         (0.181)         (0.214)         (0.211)         (0.192)         (0.257)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.679***       -0.657***       -0.690***       -0.483**        -0.353*         -0.588***       -0.873***
                          (0.161)         (0.158)         (0.159)         (0.162)         (0.172)         (0.172)         (0.199)   

1 if the two state~         0.753***        0.675***        0.701***        0.702***        0.708***        0.639***        0.506** 
                          (0.167)         (0.148)         (0.148)         (0.146)         (0.156)         (0.168)         (0.171)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.201***       -0.206***       -0.207***       -0.192***       -0.207***       -0.212***       -0.254***
                         (0.0281)        (0.0278)        (0.0278)        (0.0284)        (0.0303)        (0.0314)        (0.0316)   

revisionist_t1             -0.329***       -0.312***       -0.309***       -0.302***       -0.310***       -0.325***       -0.258***
                         (0.0267)        (0.0267)        (0.0266)        (0.0263)        (0.0308)        (0.0312)        (0.0406)   

revisionist_t2             0.0110***       0.0101***      0.00997***      0.00958***       0.0103***       0.0110***      0.00760***
                        (0.00130)       (0.00131)       (0.00130)       (0.00129)       (0.00156)       (0.00158)       (0.00187)   

revisionist_t3          -0.000108***   -0.0000967***   -0.0000955***   -0.0000913***    -0.000103***    -0.000110***   -0.0000678** 
                      (0.0000174)     (0.0000175)     (0.0000174)     (0.0000173)     (0.0000215)     (0.0000218)     (0.0000236)   

oil_value_nom_P~1_l1                    0.0000159                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000340)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_P~2_l1                    0.0000213                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000299)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~1_l1                                      0.00580*                                                                  
                                                        (0.00293)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~2_l1                                      0.00573                                                                   
                                                        (0.00421)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~1_l1                                                       0.0295***                                                
                                                                        (0.00816)                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~2_l1                                                      0.00454                                                   
                                                                        (0.00719)                                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.210***                                
                                                                                         (0.0401)                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.189***                                
                                                                                         (0.0422)                                   

per capita version~S                                                                                     -0.00717                   
                                                                                                        (0.00643)                   

per capita version~S                                                                                       0.0103***                
                                                                                                        (0.00231)                   

net_oil_exports~1_l1                                                                                                  -0.00000424   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000710)   

net_oil_exports~2_l1                                                                                                  -0.00000757   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000627)   

Constant                   -1.345**        -1.233**        -1.302**        -1.610***       -1.924***       -1.418**        -0.519   
                          (0.426)         (0.436)         (0.439)         (0.468)         (0.481)         (0.478)         (0.545)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                73054           67076           67076           67076           57784           57784           31008   
chi2                       1159.0          1140.0          1212.8          1243.1          1129.5          1052.9           701.8   
r2_p                        0.192           0.194           0.195           0.199           0.205           0.191           0.211   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-17: OIL AND MID ONSET: DIRECTED DYADS AND THE ROLE OF REVISIONISM (SAMPLE OF NON-MISSING OBSERVATIONS)

. 
. eststo: qui logit revisionist c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bot
> hminor contigland ln_distance revisionist_t1 revisionist_t2 revisionist_t3 if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit revisionist oil_value_nom_POP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_POP_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity
> 2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance revisionist_t1 revisionist_t2 revisionist_t3 if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadi
> d)
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit revisionist oil_value_nom_GDP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_GDP_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity
> 2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance revisionist_t1 revisionist_t2 revisionist_t3 if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadi
> d)
(est3 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit revisionist oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_poli
> ty2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance revisionist_t1 revisionist_t2 revisionist_t3 if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dya
> did)
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit revisionist L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1 L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 
> balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance revisionist_t1 revisionist_t2 revisionist_t3 if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit revisionist L_PC_RESERVES_c1 L_PC_RESERVES_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 bala
> nceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance revisionist_t1 revisionist_t2 revisionist_t3 if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit revisionist net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1 net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1
>  c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance revisionist_t1 revisionist_t2 revisionist_t3 if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob clu
> ster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 r~     1 if cc1 r~     1 if cc1 r~     1 if cc1 r~     1 if cc1 r~     1 if cc1 r~     1 if cc1 r~    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 revised t~                                                                                                                 
dyadic trade depen~1        1.044           0.796           0.714           0.916          -0.379           0.841           1.039   
                          (2.633)         (2.720)         (2.769)         (2.426)         (2.424)         (2.700)         (2.666)   

dyadic trade depen~2       -3.278          -3.718          -3.714          -3.450          -4.112          -3.682          -3.124   
                          (2.726)         (2.953)         (2.964)         (2.672)         (2.611)         (2.987)         (2.765)   

institutionalized ~c      -0.0561         -0.0507         -0.0485         -0.0578         -0.0425         -0.0485         -0.0512   
                         (0.0452)        (0.0449)        (0.0448)        (0.0453)        (0.0450)        (0.0451)        (0.0487)   

institutionalized ~c       0.0273          0.0311          0.0362          0.0273          0.0558          0.0311          0.0257   
                         (0.0354)        (0.0351)        (0.0357)        (0.0364)        (0.0394)        (0.0361)        (0.0371)   

difference between~t       0.0440**        0.0461***       0.0459***       0.0403**        0.0392**        0.0464***       0.0447***
                         (0.0136)        (0.0134)        (0.0132)        (0.0138)        (0.0140)        (0.0135)        (0.0132)   

Interaction of c1'~r      0.00281         0.00269         0.00281         0.00307         0.00401         0.00252         0.00273   
                        (0.00281)       (0.00277)       (0.00275)       (0.00283)       (0.00303)       (0.00281)       (0.00288)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -2.078***       -2.094***       -2.068***       -2.112***       -1.995***       -2.116***       -2.083***
                          (0.588)         (0.586)         (0.583)         (0.578)         (0.568)         (0.591)         (0.584)   

initiators p(win) ~         0.945**         0.933**         0.938**         0.721+          0.750*          0.921**         0.946** 
                          (0.294)         (0.295)         (0.297)         (0.376)         (0.312)         (0.297)         (0.295)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.883***       -0.910***       -0.931***       -0.767***       -0.730***       -0.921***       -0.884***
                          (0.210)         (0.208)         (0.207)         (0.225)         (0.213)         (0.210)         (0.210)   

1 if the two state~         0.332+          0.388*          0.384*          0.371+          0.489**         0.398*          0.331+  
                          (0.195)         (0.183)         (0.183)         (0.194)         (0.181)         (0.187)         (0.195)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.274***       -0.274***       -0.276***       -0.267***       -0.271***       -0.274***       -0.272***
                         (0.0355)        (0.0359)        (0.0359)        (0.0361)        (0.0358)        (0.0361)        (0.0358)   

revisionist_t1             -0.227***       -0.230***       -0.230***       -0.226***       -0.230***       -0.223***       -0.227***
                         (0.0515)        (0.0513)        (0.0512)        (0.0518)        (0.0510)        (0.0504)        (0.0518)   

revisionist_t2            0.00665**       0.00682**       0.00679**       0.00681**       0.00712**       0.00652**       0.00671** 
                        (0.00242)       (0.00243)       (0.00242)       (0.00246)       (0.00242)       (0.00239)       (0.00245)   

revisionist_t3         -0.0000607+     -0.0000628*     -0.0000623*     -0.0000642*     -0.0000692*     -0.0000595+     -0.0000616+  
                      (0.0000312)     (0.0000314)     (0.0000312)     (0.0000320)     (0.0000314)     (0.0000311)     (0.0000317)   

oil_value_nom_P~1_l1                    0.0000461                                                                                   
                                       (0.000143)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_P~2_l1                     0.000132+                                                                                  
                                      (0.0000688)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~1_l1                                       0.0114                                                                   
                                                         (0.0123)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~2_l1                                       0.0166                                                                   
                                                         (0.0111)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~1_l1                                                       0.0226+                                                  
                                                                         (0.0118)                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~2_l1                                                     0.000326                                                   
                                                                         (0.0110)                                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.226***                                
                                                                                         (0.0585)                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.120+                                  
                                                                                         (0.0618)                                   

per capita version~S                                                                                      -0.0250                   
                                                                                                         (0.0247)                   

per capita version~S                                                                                       0.0253***                
                                                                                                        (0.00648)                   

net_oil_exports~1_l1                                                                                                   0.00000299   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000835)   

net_oil_exports~2_l1                                                                                                  0.000000253   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000697)   

Constant                   -0.690          -0.764          -0.840          -1.007          -1.376*         -0.760          -0.706   
                          (0.606)         (0.605)         (0.617)         (0.666)         (0.671)         (0.610)         (0.603)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                23390           23390           23390           23390           23390           23390           23390   
chi2                        483.7           486.0           511.5           493.6           537.9           489.0           486.8   
r2_p                        0.190           0.191           0.192           0.193           0.202           0.193           0.190   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-18: OIL AND MID ONSET: DIRECTED DYADS AND ABSOLUTE MEASUREMENTS OF OIL

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset l1.oil_value_nom2_c1 l1.oil_value_nom2_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_c1 L_RESERVES_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset l1.oil_value_nom2_c1 l1.oil_value_nom2_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_c1 L_RESERVES_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1 & nonmiss==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)   
                     1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 initiated~t                                                                                                
dyadic trade depen~1        1.019           0.172           0.354           1.171           0.561           0.670   
                          (1.224)         (1.073)         (1.378)         (2.139)         (1.729)         (2.129)   

dyadic trade depen~2       -1.422          -1.811          -0.323          -2.657          -3.682+         -3.098   
                          (2.842)         (2.226)         (2.308)         (2.166)         (1.933)         (2.303)   

institutionalized ~c       -0.102***      -0.0722*        -0.0945**       -0.0417         -0.0227         -0.0343   
                         (0.0295)        (0.0288)        (0.0306)        (0.0415)        (0.0399)        (0.0412)   

institutionalized ~c       0.0567*         0.0476*         0.0794**        0.0120          0.0112          0.0277   
                         (0.0254)        (0.0240)        (0.0254)        (0.0330)        (0.0330)        (0.0345)   

difference between~t       0.0520***       0.0543***       0.0426***       0.0413***       0.0414***       0.0418***
                        (0.00694)       (0.00705)       (0.00737)        (0.0123)        (0.0124)        (0.0125)   

Interaction of c1'~r      0.00435*        0.00303+        0.00467**       0.00131        0.000576         0.00176   
                        (0.00176)       (0.00173)       (0.00174)       (0.00265)       (0.00254)       (0.00269)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.449***       -1.800***       -1.368***       -2.107***       -2.112***       -1.999***
                          (0.374)         (0.366)         (0.360)         (0.552)         (0.537)         (0.542)   

initiators p(win) ~         0.529***        0.512**         0.476**         0.836**         0.609+          0.809** 
                          (0.159)         (0.178)         (0.173)         (0.273)         (0.323)         (0.275)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.610***       -0.349*         -0.525***       -0.724***       -0.258          -0.734***
                          (0.148)         (0.150)         (0.154)         (0.207)         (0.259)         (0.206)   

1 if the two state~         0.824***        0.723***        0.760***        0.363*          0.431*          0.470** 
                          (0.153)         (0.132)         (0.148)         (0.184)         (0.186)         (0.182)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.170***       -0.172***       -0.189***       -0.238***       -0.225***       -0.238***
                         (0.0264)        (0.0251)        (0.0277)        (0.0345)        (0.0363)        (0.0349)   

onset_t1                   -0.314***       -0.300***       -0.300***       -0.225***       -0.222***       -0.225***
                         (0.0227)        (0.0226)        (0.0266)        (0.0438)        (0.0439)        (0.0440)   

onset_t2                   0.0104***      0.00958***      0.00989***      0.00630**       0.00632**       0.00639** 
                        (0.00115)       (0.00115)       (0.00141)       (0.00213)       (0.00214)       (0.00214)   

onset_t3                -0.000104***   -0.0000941***    -0.000101***   -0.0000562*     -0.0000576*     -0.0000587*  
                      (0.0000160)     (0.0000159)     (0.0000200)     (0.0000283)     (0.0000285)     (0.0000285)   

L.Value of oil pro~i                    0.0000131***                                    0.0000220***                
                                     (0.00000275)                                    (0.00000475)                   

L.Value of oil pro~i                    0.0000106***                                    0.0000106+                  
                                     (0.00000267)                                    (0.00000564)                   

Lag of oil reserves                                       0.00544***                                      0.00478** 
                                                        (0.00147)                                       (0.00176)   

Lag of oil reserves                                       0.00656***                                      0.00410*  
                                                        (0.00130)                                       (0.00191)   

Constant                   -1.245**        -1.250**        -1.461***       -0.572          -1.152+         -0.909   
                          (0.398)         (0.401)         (0.417)         (0.555)         (0.624)         (0.582)   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                73054           67076           57784           23390           23390           23390   
chi2                       1505.8          1635.1          1370.1           533.7           692.0           571.1   
r2_p                        0.200           0.210           0.201           0.205           0.213           0.209   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** FIGURE S-3: PREDICTIVE MARGINS OF OIL ON MID ONSET (DIRECTED DYADS)

. 
. qui logit onset oil_value_nom_GDP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_GDP_c2_l1 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)

. do "C:\Users\struever\AppData\Local\Temp\6\STD00000000.tmp"

. mcp oil_value_nom_GDP_c1_l1, var1(20) ci ///
>         plotopts(yscale(range(0 .07)) ylabel(0(.02).07) ytick(0(.01).07) ///
>         xtitle("Oil production/GDP", size(small))  title("{bf:Side A}", size(medsmall)) subtitle("(a)", ring(1) pos(10)) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ///
>         saving(plot1.gph, replace)) sh
margins , at( oil_value_nom_GDP_c1_l1=( 0 9.543658256531 19.08731651306 28.63097381592 38.17463302612 47.71828842163 57.26194763184 66.80560302734 76.34926605225 85.89292
> 144775 95.43657684326 104.9802398682 114.5238952637 124.0675506592 133.6112060547 143.1548614502 152.6985321045 162.2421875 171.7858428955 181.329498291) ) 
(file plot1.gph saved)

. mcp oil_value_nom_GDP_c2_l1, var1(20) ci ///
>         plotopts(yscale(range(0 .07)) ylabel(0(.02).07) ytick(0(.01).07) ///
>         xtitle("Oil production/GDP", size(small))  title("{bf:Side B}", size(medsmall)) subtitle("(b)", ring(1) pos(10)) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ///
>         saving(plot2.gph, replace)) sh
margins , at( oil_value_nom_GDP_c2_l1=( 0 9.543658256531 19.08731651306 28.63097381592 38.17463302612 47.71828842163 57.26194763184 66.80560302734 76.34926605225 85.89292
> 144775 95.43657684326 104.9802398682 114.5238952637 124.0675506592 133.6112060547 143.1548614502 152.6985321045 162.2421875 171.7858428955 181.329498291) ) 
(file plot2.gph saved)

. 
end of do-file

. qui logit onset oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2_l1 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)

. do "C:\Users\struever\AppData\Local\Temp\6\STD00000000.tmp"

. mcp oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1_l1, var1(20) ci ///
>         plotopts(yscale(range(0 .07)) ylabel(0(.02).07) ytick(0(.01).07) ///
>         xtitle("Oil production (log)", size(small))  subtitle("(c)", ring(1) pos(10)) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ///
>         saving(plot3.gph, replace)) sh
margins , at( oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1_l1=( 0 1.358037948608 2.716075897217 4.074113845825 5.432151794434 6.790189266205 8.14822769165 9.506265640259 10.86430358887 12.22234
> 05838 13.58037853241 14.93841648102 16.2964553833 17.65449333191 19.01253128052 20.37056922913 21.72860717773 23.08664512634 24.4446811676 25.80271911621) ) 
(file plot3.gph saved)

. mcp oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2_l1, var1(20) ci ///
>         plotopts(yscale(range(0 .07)) ylabel(0(.02).07) ytick(0(.01).07) ///
>         xtitle("Oil production (log)", size(small))  subtitle("(d)", ring(1) pos(10)) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ///
>         saving(plot4.gph, replace)) sh  
margins , at( oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2_l1=( 0 1.358037948608 2.716075897217 4.074113845825 5.432151794434 6.790189266205 8.14822769165 9.506265640259 10.86430358887 12.22234
> 05838 13.58037853241 14.93841648102 16.2964553833 17.65449333191 19.01253128052 20.37056922913 21.72860717773 23.08664512634 24.4446811676 25.80271911621) ) 
(file plot4.gph saved)

. 
end of do-file

. qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1 L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)

. do "C:\Users\struever\AppData\Local\Temp\6\STD00000000.tmp"

. mcp L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1, var1(20) ci ///
>         plotopts(yscale(range(0 .07)) ylabel(0(.02).07) ytick(0(.01).07) ///
>         xtitle("Petroleum reserves (log)", size(small))  subtitle("(e)", ring(1) pos(10)) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ///
>         saving(plot5.gph, replace)) sh
margins , at( L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1=( 0 .293171107769 .586342215538 .879513323307 1.172684431076 1.46585547924 1.759026646614 2.052197694778 2.345368862152 2.638540029526 2.
> 931710958481 3.224882125854 3.518053293228 3.811224460602 4.104395389557 4.397566795349 4.690737724304 4.983908653259 5.277080059052 5.570250988007) ) 
(file plot5.gph saved)

. mcp L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2, var1(20) ci ///
>         plotopts(yscale(range(0 .07)) ylabel(0(.02).07) ytick(0(.01).07) ///
>         xtitle("Petroleum reserves (log)", size(small))  subtitle("(f)", ring(1) pos(10)) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ///
>         saving(plot6.gph, replace)) sh  
margins , at( L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2=( 0 .293171107769 .586342215538 .879513323307 1.172684431076 1.46585547924 1.759026646614 2.052197694778 2.345368862152 2.638540029526 2.
> 931710958481 3.224882125854 3.518053293228 3.811224460602 4.104395389557 4.397566795349 4.690737724304 4.983908653259 5.277080059052 5.570250988007) ) 
(note: file plot6.gph not found)
(file plot6.gph saved)

. 
end of do-file

. qui logit onset L_PC_RESERVES_c1 L_PC_RESERVES_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)

. do "C:\Users\struever\AppData\Local\Temp\6\STD00000000.tmp"

. mcp L_PC_RESERVES_c1, var1(20) ci ///
>         plotopts(yscale(range(-0.01 .07)) ylabel(-0.01(.02).07) ytick(-0.01(.01).07) ///
>         xtitle("Petroleum reserves per capita", size(small))  subtitle("(g)", ring(1) pos(10)) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ///
>         saving(plot7.gph, replace)) sh
margins , at( L_PC_RESERVES_c1=( 0 8.525778770447 17.05155754089 25.57733726501 34.10311508179 42.62889480591 51.15467453003 59.68045425415 68.20623016357 76.7320098877 8
> 5.25778961182 93.78356933594 102.3093490601 110.8351287842 119.3609085083 127.886680603 136.4124603271 144.9382476807 153.4640197754 161.9898071289) ) 
(note: file plot7.gph not found)
(file plot7.gph saved)

. mcp L_PC_RESERVES_c2, var1(20) ci ///
>         plotopts(yscale(range(-0.01 .07)) ylabel(-0.01(.02).07) ytick(-0.01(.01).07) ///
>         xtitle("Petroleum reserves per capita", size(small))  subtitle("(h)", ring(1) pos(10)) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ///
>         saving(plot8.gph, replace)) sh
margins , at( L_PC_RESERVES_c2=( 0 8.525778770447 17.05155754089 25.57733726501 34.10311508179 42.62889480591 51.15467453003 59.68045425415 68.20623016357 76.7320098877 8
> 5.25778961182 93.78356933594 102.3093490601 110.8351287842 119.3609085083 127.886680603 136.4124603271 144.9382476807 153.4640197754 161.9898071289) ) 
(note: file plot8.gph not found)
(file plot8.gph saved)

. 
end of do-file

. qui logit onset net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1 net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)

. do "C:\Users\struever\AppData\Local\Temp\6\STD00000000.tmp"

. mcp net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1 if net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1>0, var1(20) ci ///
>         plotopts(yscale(range(-0.01 .07)) ylabel(-0.01(.02).07) ytick(-0.01(.01).07) ///
>         xtitle("Net oil exports", size(small))  title("{bf:Side A}", size(medsmall)) subtitle("(i)", ring(1) pos(10)) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ///
>         saving(plot9.gph, replace)) sh
margins , at( net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1=( .1095236986876 3528.194824219 7056.280273438 10584.36523438 14112.45019531 17640.53515625 21168.62109375 24696.70703125 28224
> .79101563 31752.87695313 35280.9609375 38809.046875 42337.1328125 45865.21875 49393.3046875 52921.390625 56449.47265625 59977.55859375 63505.64453125 67033.7265625) ) 
(note: file plot9.gph not found)
(file plot9.gph saved)

. mcp net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1 if net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1>0, var1(20) ci ///
>         plotopts(yscale(range(-0.01 .07)) ylabel(-0.01(.02).07) ytick(-0.01(.01).07) ///
>         xtitle("Net oil exports", size(small))  title("{bf:Side B}", size(medsmall)) subtitle("(j)", ring(1) pos(10)) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ///
>         saving(plot10.gph, replace)) sh
margins , at( net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1=( .1095236986876 3528.194824219 7056.280273438 10584.36523438 14112.45019531 17640.53515625 21168.62109375 24696.70703125 28224
> .79101563 31752.87695313 35280.9609375 38809.046875 42337.1328125 45865.21875 49393.3046875 52921.390625 56449.47265625 59977.55859375 63505.64453125 67033.7265625) ) 
(note: file plot10.gph not found)
(file plot10.gph saved)

. 
end of do-file

. qui logit onset oil_value_nom2_c1_l1 oil_value_nom2_c2_l1 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)

. do "C:\Users\struever\AppData\Local\Temp\6\STD00000000.tmp"

. mcp oil_value_nom2_c1_l1, var1(20) ci ///
>         plotopts(yscale(range(0 .12)) ylabel(0(.02).12) ytick(0(.01).12) ///
>         xtitle("Oil production", size(small)) subtitle("(k)", ring(1) pos(10)) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ///
>         saving(plot11.gph, replace)) sh
margins , at( oil_value_nom2_c1_l1=( 0 8457.205078125 16914.41015625 25371.61523438 33828.8203125 42286.02734375 50743.23046875 59200.4375 67657.640625 76114.84375 84572.
> 0546875 93029.2578125 101486.4609375 109943.671875 118400.875 126858.078125 135315.28125 143772.484375 152229.6875 160686.90625) ) 
(note: file plot11.gph not found)
(file plot11.gph saved)

. mcp oil_value_nom2_c2_l1, var1(20) ci ///
>         plotopts(yscale(range(0 .12)) ylabel(0(.02).12) ytick(0(.01).12) ///
>         xtitle("Oil production", size(small))  subtitle("(l)", ring(1) pos(10)) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ///
>         saving(plot12.gph, replace)) sh 
margins , at( oil_value_nom2_c2_l1=( 0 8457.205078125 16914.41015625 25371.61523438 33828.8203125 42286.02734375 50743.23046875 59200.4375 67657.640625 76114.84375 84572.
> 0546875 93029.2578125 101486.4609375 109943.671875 118400.875 126858.078125 135315.28125 143772.484375 152229.6875 160686.90625) ) 
(note: file plot12.gph not found)
(file plot12.gph saved)

. 
end of do-file

. qui logit onset L_RESERVES_c1 L_RESERVES_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)

. do "C:\Users\struever\AppData\Local\Temp\6\STD00000000.tmp"

. mcp L_RESERVES_c1, var1(20) ci ///
>         plotopts(yscale(range(0 .12)) ylabel(0(.02).12) ytick(0(.01).12) ///
>         xtitle("Oil reserves", size(small)) subtitle("(m)", ring(1) pos(10)) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ///
>         saving(plot13.gph, replace)) sh
margins , at( L_RESERVES_c1=( 0 13.76315784454 27.52631568909 41.2894744873 55.05263137817 68.81578826904 82.57894897461 96.34210205078 110.1052627563 123.8684234619 137.
> 6315765381 151.3947296143 165.1578979492 178.9210510254 192.6842041016 206.4473724365 220.2105255127 233.9736785889 247.7368469238 261.5) ) 
(note: file plot13.gph not found)
(file plot13.gph saved)

. mcp L_RESERVES_c2, var1(20) ci ///
>         plotopts(yscale(range(0 .12)) ylabel(0(.02).12) ytick(0(.01).12) ///
>         xtitle("Oil reserves", size(small))  subtitle("(n)", ring(1) pos(10)) ///
>         graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ///
>         saving(plot14.gph, replace)) sh         
margins , at( L_RESERVES_c2=( 0 13.76315784454 27.52631568909 41.2894744873 55.05263137817 68.81578826904 82.57894897461 96.34210205078 110.1052627563 123.8684234619 137.
> 6315765381 151.3947296143 165.1578979492 178.9210510254 192.6842041016 206.4473724365 220.2105255127 233.9736785889 247.7368469238 261.5) ) 
(note: file plot14.gph not found)
(file plot14.gph saved)

. 
end of do-file

. do "C:\Users\struever\AppData\Local\Temp\6\STD00000000.tmp"

. gr combine plot1.gph plot2.gph ///
>                    plot3.gph plot4.gph ///
>                    , col(2) row(4) graphregion(color(white)) note("95% confidence intervals shaded in grey.", size(small))  ///
>                    graphregion(margin(zero))

. 
. gr combine plot5.gph plot6.gph ///
>            plot7.gph plot8.gph ///
>                    , col(2) row(4) graphregion(color(white)) note("95% confidence intervals shaded in grey.", size(small))  ///
>                    graphregion(margin(zero))

. 
. gr combine plot9.gph plot10.gph ///
>                    plot11.gph plot12.gph ///
>                    , col(2) row(4) graphregion(color(white)) note("95% confidence intervals shaded in grey.", size(small))  ///
>                    graphregion(margin(zero))

.                 
. gr combine plot13.gph plot14.gph ///
>                    , col(2) row(4) graphregion(color(white)) note("95% confidence intervals shaded in grey.", size(small))  ///
>                    graphregion(margin(zero))

. 
. eststo clear

. 
end of do-file

. *** TABLE S-19: OIL AND MID ONSET: ALL DIRECTED DYADS

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset `controls_dd', rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_POP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_POP_c2_l1 `controls_dd', rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_GDP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_GDP_c2_l1 `controls_dd', rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2_l1 `controls_dd', rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1 L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2 `controls_dd', rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset L_PC_RESERVES_c1 L_PC_RESERVES_c2 `controls_dd', rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1 net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1 `controls_dd', rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. 
. sttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 
unrecognized command:  sttab
r(199);

. eststo clear

. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-20: OIL AND MID ONSET: DIRECTED DYADS AND REGIONAL CONTROLS

. eststo: qui logit onset  rlrx* `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_POP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_POP_c2_l1 rlrx* `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_GDP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_GDP_c2_l1 rlrx* `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2_l1 rlrx* `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1 L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2 rlrx* `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset L_PC_RESERVES_c1 L_PC_RESERVES_c2 rlrx* `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1 net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1 rlrx* `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 initiated~t                                                                                                                
rlregion==   ..0000        -0.637***       -0.587**        -0.591**        -0.616**        -0.549**        -0.680**        -0.732** 
                          (0.191)         (0.203)         (0.203)         (0.204)         (0.208)         (0.211)         (0.242)   

rlregion==   ..0000         0.315*          0.287+          0.226           0.177          0.0235           0.251+          0.182   
                          (0.141)         (0.148)         (0.152)         (0.153)         (0.158)         (0.150)         (0.259)   

rlregion==   ..0000        -0.744***       -0.843***       -0.829***       -0.744***       -0.810***       -0.981***       -0.426+  
                          (0.172)         (0.174)         (0.174)         (0.187)         (0.196)         (0.190)         (0.256)   

rlregion==   ..0000         0.208           0.122           0.127           0.115           0.178           0.110          -0.134   
                          (0.173)         (0.168)         (0.168)         (0.169)         (0.176)         (0.178)         (0.216)   

o.rlregion==   ~0000            0               0               0               0               0               0               0   
                              (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)   

dyadic trade depen~1        0.236           0.301           0.186           0.145          -0.408         0.00231          -1.509   
                          (1.220)         (1.233)         (1.217)         (1.147)         (1.239)         (1.404)         (1.810)   

dyadic trade depen~2       -1.817          -1.279          -1.527          -1.439          -0.703          -0.225          -4.452*  
                          (2.637)         (2.389)         (2.328)         (2.390)         (2.048)         (2.189)         (2.120)   

institutionalized ~c      -0.0928***      -0.0841**       -0.0813**       -0.0818**       -0.0945**       -0.0948**       -0.0186   
                         (0.0275)        (0.0279)        (0.0278)        (0.0279)        (0.0302)        (0.0301)        (0.0402)   

institutionalized ~c       0.0765**        0.0622**        0.0650**        0.0639**        0.0903***       0.0779**       0.00753   
                         (0.0241)        (0.0231)        (0.0232)        (0.0235)        (0.0246)        (0.0239)        (0.0340)   

difference between~t       0.0403***       0.0381***       0.0398***       0.0394***       0.0319***       0.0282***       0.0392***
                        (0.00660)       (0.00684)       (0.00690)       (0.00677)       (0.00714)       (0.00701)        (0.0105)   

Interaction of c1'~r      0.00471**       0.00409*        0.00403*        0.00410*        0.00518**       0.00471**       0.00107   
                        (0.00164)       (0.00165)       (0.00165)       (0.00167)       (0.00169)       (0.00167)       (0.00241)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.493***       -1.647***       -1.662***       -1.697***       -1.486***       -1.405***       -2.017***
                          (0.358)         (0.376)         (0.374)         (0.366)         (0.338)         (0.363)         (0.508)   

initiators p(win) ~         0.509**         0.522***        0.527***        0.430*          0.429*          0.426*          0.864***
                          (0.155)         (0.158)         (0.158)         (0.192)         (0.185)         (0.168)         (0.244)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.563**        -0.539**        -0.543**        -0.484**        -0.277          -0.505**        -0.882***
                          (0.177)         (0.168)         (0.169)         (0.168)         (0.182)         (0.184)         (0.215)   

1 if the two state~         0.966***        0.816***        0.837***        0.827***        0.828***        0.837***        0.649***
                          (0.144)         (0.130)         (0.130)         (0.130)         (0.139)         (0.147)         (0.167)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.151***       -0.156***       -0.156***       -0.155***       -0.161***       -0.165***       -0.238***
                         (0.0273)        (0.0277)        (0.0277)        (0.0276)        (0.0279)        (0.0289)        (0.0312)   

onset_t1                   -0.296***       -0.290***       -0.291***       -0.290***       -0.275***       -0.279***       -0.258***
                         (0.0220)        (0.0227)        (0.0226)        (0.0227)        (0.0258)        (0.0258)        (0.0359)   

onset_t2                  0.00981***      0.00933***      0.00938***      0.00931***      0.00890***      0.00913***      0.00763***
                        (0.00114)       (0.00118)       (0.00117)       (0.00118)       (0.00138)       (0.00138)       (0.00174)   

onset_t3                -0.000100***   -0.0000933***   -0.0000938***   -0.0000932***   -0.0000914***   -0.0000937***   -0.0000710** 
                      (0.0000161)     (0.0000165)     (0.0000164)     (0.0000165)     (0.0000198)     (0.0000199)     (0.0000229)   

oil_value_nom_P~1_l1                   -0.0000468                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000394)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_P~2_l1                   -0.0000136                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000281)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~1_l1                                    -0.000897                                                                   
                                                        (0.00304)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~2_l1                                      0.00288                                                                   
                                                        (0.00376)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~1_l1                                                       0.0113                                                   
                                                                        (0.00754)                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~2_l1                                                     0.000375                                                   
                                                                        (0.00620)                                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.137***                                
                                                                                         (0.0372)                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.130**                                 
                                                                                         (0.0397)                                   

per capita version~S                                                                                      -0.0240**                 
                                                                                                        (0.00930)                   

per capita version~S                                                                                      0.00385                   
                                                                                                        (0.00255)                   

net_oil_exports~1_l1                                                                                                  -0.00000650   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000676)   

net_oil_exports~2_l1                                                                                                  -0.00000882   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000565)   

Constant                   -1.306**        -0.956*         -0.998*         -1.108*         -1.558***       -1.146*         -0.386   
                          (0.402)         (0.421)         (0.423)         (0.438)         (0.445)         (0.446)         (0.581)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                73054           67076           67076           67076           57784           57784           31008   
chi2                       1845.9          1809.9          1816.9          1823.4          1639.9          1713.4           813.2   
r2_p                        0.214           0.219           0.218           0.219           0.218           0.214           0.230   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. eststo clear

. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-21: OIL AND MID ONSET: DIRECTED DYADS AND NON-FATAL MIDS

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 
> bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal oil_value_nom_POP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_POP_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_pol
> ity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid
> )
(est2 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal oil_value_nom_GDP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_GDP_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_pol
> ity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid
> )
(est3 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_p
> olity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyad
> id)
(est4 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1 L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_
> l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal L_PC_RESERVES_c1 L_PC_RESERVES_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 b
> alanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1 net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff
> _l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob clus
> ter(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if Side A initia~a                                                                                                                
dyadic trade depen~1        1.486           1.428           1.039           1.168           0.207           1.538          -0.681   
                          (1.214)         (1.141)         (1.200)         (1.028)         (1.167)         (1.370)         (2.983)   

dyadic trade depen~2       -2.022          -1.777          -2.124          -1.821          -1.632          -0.532          -3.072   
                          (2.756)         (2.431)         (2.462)         (2.280)         (1.889)         (2.224)         (2.651)   

institutionalized ~c      -0.0962**       -0.0785*        -0.0735*        -0.0815*        -0.0888*        -0.0998**      -0.00962   
                         (0.0362)        (0.0349)        (0.0350)        (0.0353)        (0.0357)        (0.0360)        (0.0436)   

institutionalized ~c       0.0686*         0.0671*         0.0746**        0.0627*          0.109***       0.0834**      -0.00283   
                         (0.0308)        (0.0286)        (0.0288)        (0.0294)        (0.0301)        (0.0293)        (0.0323)   

difference between~t       0.0490***       0.0481***       0.0496***       0.0439***       0.0363***       0.0374***       0.0530***
                        (0.00792)       (0.00799)       (0.00794)       (0.00789)       (0.00829)       (0.00853)        (0.0124)   

Interaction of c1'~r      0.00399+        0.00348+        0.00356+        0.00351+        0.00515*        0.00438*      0.0000928   
                        (0.00211)       (0.00204)       (0.00204)       (0.00211)       (0.00204)       (0.00202)       (0.00249)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.473***       -1.613***       -1.625***       -1.691***       -1.569***       -1.410**        -2.689***
                          (0.390)         (0.399)         (0.397)         (0.385)         (0.396)         (0.439)         (0.522)   

initiators p(win) ~         0.607***        0.618***        0.622***        0.429*          0.446*          0.569**         0.959***
                          (0.180)         (0.182)         (0.184)         (0.219)         (0.214)         (0.196)         (0.249)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.812***       -0.807***       -0.846***       -0.594***       -0.570**        -0.815***       -1.052***
                          (0.168)         (0.162)         (0.164)         (0.163)         (0.179)         (0.180)         (0.198)   

1 if the two state~         0.637***        0.554***        0.582***        0.576***        0.539***        0.488**         0.362*  
                          (0.169)         (0.150)         (0.151)         (0.148)         (0.162)         (0.174)         (0.175)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.224***       -0.232***       -0.234***       -0.216***       -0.243***       -0.244***       -0.280***
                         (0.0272)        (0.0273)        (0.0274)        (0.0279)        (0.0285)        (0.0299)        (0.0301)   

onset_nonfatal_t1          -0.279***       -0.272***       -0.269***       -0.257***       -0.246***       -0.265***       -0.225***
                         (0.0281)        (0.0275)        (0.0275)        (0.0269)        (0.0319)        (0.0328)        (0.0410)   

onset_nonfatal_t2         0.00951***      0.00911***      0.00898***      0.00843***      0.00809***      0.00892***      0.00686***
                        (0.00136)       (0.00136)       (0.00135)       (0.00133)       (0.00160)       (0.00164)       (0.00190)   

onset_nonfatal_t3      -0.0000972***   -0.0000926***   -0.0000911***   -0.0000853***   -0.0000826***   -0.0000907***   -0.0000654** 
                      (0.0000180)     (0.0000181)     (0.0000179)     (0.0000178)     (0.0000217)     (0.0000222)     (0.0000239)   

oil_value_nom_P~1_l1                   0.00000535                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000335)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_P~2_l1                    0.0000387                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000284)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~1_l1                                      0.00648*                                                                  
                                                        (0.00284)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~2_l1                                      0.00781*                                                                  
                                                        (0.00381)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~1_l1                                                       0.0323***                                                
                                                                        (0.00817)                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~2_l1                                                       0.0114                                                   
                                                                        (0.00702)                                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.253***                                
                                                                                         (0.0412)                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.171***                                
                                                                                         (0.0443)                                   

per capita version~S                                                                                     -0.00472                   
                                                                                                        (0.00592)                   

per capita version~S                                                                                      0.00986***                
                                                                                                        (0.00283)                   

net_oil_exports~1_l1                                                                                                   0.00000400   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000644)   

net_oil_exports~2_l1                                                                                                  -0.00000694   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000573)   

Constant                   -1.471***       -1.328**        -1.424**        -1.940***       -1.975***       -1.435**        -0.357   
                          (0.422)         (0.434)         (0.433)         (0.441)         (0.465)         (0.488)         (0.570)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                72695           66774           66774           66774           57518           57518           30881   
chi2                        998.3          1001.7          1058.3          1099.7           928.2           840.4           561.3   
r2_p                        0.157           0.159           0.161           0.167           0.167           0.150           0.191   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. eststo clear

. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-22: OIL AND MID ONSET: DIRECTED DYADS AND FATAL MIDS

. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bot
> hminor contigland ln_distance onset_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal oil_value_nom_POP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_POP_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity
> 2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal oil_value_nom_GDP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_GDP_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity
> 2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_poli
> ty2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1 L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 
> balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal L_PC_RESERVES_c1 L_PC_RESERVES_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 bala
> nceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_fatal net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1 net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1
>  c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_fatal_t1 onset_fatal_t2 onset_fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if side ~i    1 if side ~i    1 if side ~i    1 if side ~i    1 if side ~i    1 if side ~i    1 if side ~i   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if side A initia~i                                                                                                                
dyadic trade depen~1       -7.897          -11.41          -12.36          -12.09          -24.73          -23.74          -0.239   
                          (7.756)         (10.70)         (10.88)         (11.00)         (18.23)         (18.08)         (4.565)   

dyadic trade depen~2       -17.25          -15.57          -16.12          -16.65          -8.973          -8.194          -27.77   
                          (14.67)         (16.39)         (16.50)         (16.97)         (14.86)         (14.69)         (30.84)   

institutionalized ~c      -0.0247         0.00453         0.00725         0.00908         0.00954         0.00195          0.0953   
                         (0.0472)        (0.0509)        (0.0513)        (0.0516)        (0.0591)        (0.0595)        (0.0942)   

institutionalized ~c    -0.000726         -0.0274         -0.0244         -0.0311          0.0224         0.00515          -0.166*  
                         (0.0445)        (0.0457)        (0.0456)        (0.0460)        (0.0508)        (0.0519)        (0.0843)   

difference between~t       0.0811***       0.0864***       0.0873***       0.0862***       0.0771***       0.0763***       0.0677** 
                         (0.0146)        (0.0164)        (0.0164)        (0.0159)        (0.0172)        (0.0173)        (0.0250)   

Interaction of c1'~r     0.000464        -0.00144        -0.00141        -0.00168      0.00000345       -0.000373        -0.00712   
                        (0.00273)       (0.00290)       (0.00289)       (0.00294)       (0.00335)       (0.00341)       (0.00492)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.679*         -2.101*         -2.131*         -2.239**        -1.533*         -1.258          -1.838   
                          (0.812)         (0.858)         (0.854)         (0.841)         (0.764)         (0.800)         (1.204)   

initiators p(win) ~         0.450           0.547           0.543           0.287           0.223           0.125           1.151+  
                          (0.358)         (0.386)         (0.387)         (0.419)         (0.413)         (0.406)         (0.698)   

1 if both states i~m       0.0169          0.0144         0.00458          0.0695           0.438           0.221           0.349   
                          (0.288)         (0.287)         (0.286)         (0.313)         (0.375)         (0.393)         (0.564)   

1 if the two state~         2.969***        2.654***        2.686***        2.684***        3.336***        3.380***        2.268***
                          (0.486)         (0.506)         (0.506)         (0.503)         (0.698)         (0.725)         (0.613)   

log distance betwe~2       0.0686          0.0359          0.0379          0.0435          0.0871          0.0872         -0.0494   
                         (0.0867)        (0.0905)        (0.0908)        (0.0924)         (0.109)         (0.115)         (0.131)   

onset_fatal_t1             -0.228***       -0.226***       -0.227***       -0.225***       -0.216***       -0.223***       -0.142   
                         (0.0505)        (0.0533)        (0.0535)        (0.0540)        (0.0633)        (0.0630)        (0.0888)   

onset_fatal_t2            0.00627**       0.00581*        0.00582*        0.00573*        0.00670*        0.00703*        0.00217   
                        (0.00238)       (0.00249)       (0.00249)       (0.00252)       (0.00321)       (0.00318)       (0.00377)   

onset_fatal_t3         -0.0000511      -0.0000427      -0.0000430      -0.0000421      -0.0000745      -0.0000768+       4.66e-08   
                      (0.0000314)     (0.0000324)     (0.0000324)     (0.0000327)     (0.0000454)     (0.0000454)     (0.0000446)   

oil_value_nom_P~1_l1                   -0.0000566                                                                                   
                                       (0.000140)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_P~2_l1                   -0.0000522                                                                                   
                                       (0.000109)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~1_l1                                      0.00214                                                                   
                                                        (0.00711)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~2_l1                                     -0.00105                                                                   
                                                        (0.00871)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~1_l1                                                       0.0191                                                   
                                                                         (0.0132)                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~2_l1                                                     -0.00696                                                   
                                                                         (0.0133)                                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.135+                                  
                                                                                         (0.0763)                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.202*                                  
                                                                                         (0.0837)                                   

per capita version~S                                                                                      -0.0140                   
                                                                                                         (0.0154)                   

per capita version~S                                                                                       0.0117**                 
                                                                                                        (0.00427)                   

net_oil_exports~1_l1                                                                                                   -0.0000252   
                                                                                                                      (0.0000189)   

net_oil_exports~2_l1                                                                                                   -0.0000350*  
                                                                                                                      (0.0000165)   

Constant                   -5.297***       -4.698***       -4.731***       -4.693***       -6.335***       -6.060***       -5.122** 
                          (1.053)         (1.102)         (1.105)         (1.137)         (1.250)         (1.220)         (1.748)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                72695           66774           66774           66774           57518           57518           30881   
chi2                        461.3           539.2           574.9           584.0           360.3           317.0           248.8   
r2_p                        0.188           0.198           0.198           0.199           0.216           0.209           0.192   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. eststo clear

. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-23: OIL RESERVES AND MID ONSET: DIRECTED DYADS AND THE EFFECT COUNTRY SIZE

. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1 L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset L_PC_RESERVES_c1 L_PC_RESERVES_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1 L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1 & gle_pop_c2>=4000 & gle_pop_c2!=., rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset L_PC_RESERVES_c1 L_PC_RESERVES_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1 & gle_pop_c2>=4000 & gle_pop_c2!=., rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1 L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1 & gle_pop_c2<4000 & gle_pop_c2!=., rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset L_PC_RESERVES_c1 L_PC_RESERVES_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1 & gle_pop_c2<4000 & gle_pop_c2!=., rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)   
                     1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 initiated~t                                                                                                
Log of value of oi~         0.194***                        0.205***                       0.0758                   
                         (0.0356)                        (0.0398)                        (0.0899)                   

Log of value of oi~         0.174***                        0.139**                         0.377***                
                         (0.0389)                        (0.0432)                        (0.0894)                   

dyadic trade depen~1       -0.135           0.847           0.292           1.130          -0.767          -2.416   
                          (1.170)         (1.410)         (1.192)         (1.455)         (5.717)         (6.201)   

dyadic trade depen~2       -0.713           0.176          -3.987          -3.418           3.494           5.248+  
                          (2.111)         (2.334)         (4.032)         (5.327)         (2.378)         (2.729)   

institutionalized ~c      -0.0921**       -0.0984**       -0.0928**       -0.0985**       -0.0739          -0.114   
                         (0.0310)        (0.0310)        (0.0338)        (0.0338)        (0.0686)        (0.0711)   

institutionalized ~c       0.0874***       0.0667**        0.0804**        0.0662*          0.102+         0.0812   
                         (0.0263)        (0.0254)        (0.0300)        (0.0291)        (0.0568)        (0.0544)   

difference between~t       0.0422***       0.0422***       0.0360***       0.0385***       0.0540**        0.0425*  
                        (0.00737)       (0.00746)       (0.00766)       (0.00782)        (0.0193)        (0.0195)   

Interaction of c1'~r      0.00495**       0.00433*        0.00524**       0.00463*        0.00291         0.00402   
                        (0.00178)       (0.00175)       (0.00199)       (0.00196)       (0.00363)       (0.00368)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.459***       -1.299***       -1.745***       -1.772***       -1.382          -0.567   
                          (0.347)         (0.377)         (0.397)         (0.424)         (1.385)         (1.458)   

initiators p(win) ~         0.433*          0.455**         0.433+          0.549**         2.593*          2.356*  
                          (0.191)         (0.170)         (0.232)         (0.211)         (1.156)         (1.196)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.319*         -0.540***       -0.369*         -0.589***        0.264           0.503   
                          (0.154)         (0.155)         (0.162)         (0.164)         (0.492)         (0.527)   

1 if the two state~         0.756***        0.702***        0.629***        0.602***        1.374***        1.246***
                          (0.145)         (0.156)         (0.161)         (0.164)         (0.333)         (0.375)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.187***       -0.190***       -0.185***       -0.185***       -0.168*         -0.153+  
                         (0.0268)        (0.0281)        (0.0267)        (0.0286)        (0.0791)        (0.0855)   

onset_t1                   -0.289***       -0.304***       -0.275***       -0.290***       -0.331***       -0.353***
                         (0.0266)        (0.0267)        (0.0294)        (0.0288)        (0.0633)        (0.0704)   

onset_t2                  0.00941***       0.0101***      0.00841***      0.00899***       0.0142***       0.0161***
                        (0.00140)       (0.00140)       (0.00150)       (0.00149)       (0.00378)       (0.00434)   

onset_t3               -0.0000958***    -0.000102***   -0.0000804***   -0.0000855***    -0.000190**     -0.000223** 
                      (0.0000198)     (0.0000199)     (0.0000208)     (0.0000207)     (0.0000621)     (0.0000744)   

per capita version~S                     -0.00644                        -0.00571                         -0.0735+  
                                        (0.00568)                       (0.00558)                        (0.0397)   

per capita version~S                      0.00890***                       0.0334                          0.0152***
                                        (0.00242)                        (0.0204)                       (0.00225)   

Constant                   -1.778***       -1.304**        -1.282**        -0.785+         -4.972***       -5.074***
                          (0.429)         (0.431)         (0.489)         (0.474)         (1.133)         (1.144)   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                57784           57784           47591           47591           10162           10162   
chi2                       1425.5          1297.2          1166.5          1028.2           337.9           355.9   
r2_p                        0.209           0.197           0.212           0.202           0.229           0.216   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. eststo clear

. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-24: OIL AND MID ONSET: DIRECTED DYADS AND THE IMPACT OF REVOLUTIONARY PETROSTATES

. eststo: qui logit onset jc_radoil_c1 jc_radoil_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_POP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_POP_c2_l1 jc_radoil_c1 jc_radoil_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_GDP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_GDP_c2_l1 jc_radoil_c1 jc_radoil_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2_l1 jc_radoil_c1 jc_radoil_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1 L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2 jc_radoil_c1 jc_radoil_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset L_PC_RESERVES_c1 L_PC_RESERVES_c2 jc_radoil_c1 jc_radoil_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1 net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1 jc_radoil_c1 jc_radoil_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 initiated~t                                                                                                                
jc_radoil_c1                0.973***        0.986***        1.024***        0.799***        0.806***        1.225***        0.915***
                          (0.147)         (0.145)         (0.156)         (0.156)         (0.169)         (0.171)         (0.212)   

jc_radoil_c2                0.860***        0.846***        0.792***        0.745***        0.278           0.662**         1.211***
                          (0.193)         (0.191)         (0.207)         (0.198)         (0.239)         (0.229)         (0.274)   

dyadic trade depen~1        1.033           0.952           1.043           0.762         -0.0736           0.635          -1.452   
                          (1.228)         (1.318)         (1.283)         (1.244)         (1.366)         (1.680)         (2.380)   

dyadic trade depen~2       -0.976          -0.987          -1.156          -1.015         -0.0853           0.466          -4.834   
                          (2.762)         (2.694)         (2.644)         (2.675)         (2.320)         (2.526)         (3.114)   

institutionalized ~c      -0.0722*        -0.0582+        -0.0563+        -0.0637*        -0.0620+        -0.0568+       -0.00834   
                         (0.0315)        (0.0304)        (0.0303)        (0.0308)        (0.0329)        (0.0329)        (0.0422)   

institutionalized ~c       0.0620*         0.0532*         0.0528*         0.0527*         0.0721**        0.0540+       -0.00888   
                         (0.0271)        (0.0257)        (0.0259)        (0.0262)        (0.0279)        (0.0276)        (0.0331)   

difference between~t       0.0559***       0.0553***       0.0557***       0.0538***       0.0463***       0.0465***       0.0463***
                        (0.00717)       (0.00727)       (0.00725)       (0.00721)       (0.00772)       (0.00790)        (0.0111)   

Interaction of c1'~r      0.00378*        0.00312+        0.00302+        0.00330+        0.00377*        0.00301        0.000338   
                        (0.00186)       (0.00181)       (0.00181)       (0.00185)       (0.00189)       (0.00186)       (0.00250)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.528***       -1.581***       -1.592***       -1.662***       -1.407***       -1.333***       -1.974***
                          (0.400)         (0.404)         (0.403)         (0.395)         (0.378)         (0.398)         (0.537)   

initiators p(win) ~         0.450**         0.470**         0.470**         0.335+          0.421*          0.345+          0.913***
                          (0.168)         (0.168)         (0.168)         (0.196)         (0.192)         (0.183)         (0.274)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.479**        -0.464**        -0.465**        -0.386*         -0.255          -0.338*         -0.561** 
                          (0.158)         (0.150)         (0.150)         (0.154)         (0.161)         (0.170)         (0.208)   

1 if the two state~         0.849***        0.783***        0.791***        0.796***        0.784***        0.734***        0.667***
                          (0.171)         (0.149)         (0.148)         (0.148)         (0.166)         (0.176)         (0.179)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.158***       -0.158***       -0.158***       -0.152***       -0.172***       -0.168***       -0.220***
                         (0.0281)        (0.0278)        (0.0278)        (0.0279)        (0.0291)        (0.0312)        (0.0294)   

onset_t1                   -0.298***       -0.291***       -0.291***       -0.287***       -0.275***       -0.285***       -0.233***
                         (0.0233)        (0.0235)        (0.0235)        (0.0236)        (0.0276)        (0.0274)        (0.0379)   

onset_t2                  0.00979***      0.00934***      0.00933***      0.00912***      0.00886***      0.00936***      0.00669***
                        (0.00119)       (0.00121)       (0.00121)       (0.00121)       (0.00145)       (0.00144)       (0.00178)   

onset_t3               -0.0000991***   -0.0000931***   -0.0000930***   -0.0000906***   -0.0000901***   -0.0000959***   -0.0000606** 
                      (0.0000167)     (0.0000170)     (0.0000169)     (0.0000170)     (0.0000206)     (0.0000205)     (0.0000231)   

oil_value_nom_P~1_l1                   -0.0000344                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000411)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_P~2_l1                   0.00000227                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000257)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~1_l1                                     -0.00335                                                                   
                                                        (0.00313)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~2_l1                                      0.00261                                                                   
                                                        (0.00364)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~1_l1                                                       0.0166*                                                  
                                                                        (0.00719)                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~2_l1                                                      0.00136                                                   
                                                                        (0.00623)                                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.115**                                 
                                                                                         (0.0416)                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.149***                                
                                                                                         (0.0418)                                   

per capita version~S                                                                                      -0.0368+                  
                                                                                                         (0.0192)                   

per capita version~S                                                                                      0.00338                   
                                                                                                        (0.00244)                   

net_oil_exports~1_l1                                                                                                   -0.0000112+  
                                                                                                                     (0.00000615)   

net_oil_exports~2_l1                                                                                                   -0.0000195***
                                                                                                                     (0.00000552)   

Constant                   -1.575***       -1.503***       -1.509***       -1.651***       -2.018***       -1.729***       -1.283*  
                          (0.447)         (0.445)         (0.445)         (0.460)         (0.485)         (0.484)         (0.582)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                66552           63260           63260           63260           53870           53870           29352   
chi2                       1697.8          1666.8          1708.7          1697.2          1441.3          1432.0           838.8   
r2_p                        0.215           0.217           0.217           0.218           0.218           0.214           0.233   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. eststo clear

. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-25: OIL AND MID ONSET: DIRECTED DYADS AND THE IMPACT OF REVOLUTIONARY PETROSTATES ON THE OUTBREAK OF NON-FATAL DISPUTES

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal jc_radoil_c1 jc_radoil_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceof
> force_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal oil_value_nom_POP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_POP_c2_l1 jc_radoil_c1 jc_radoil_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_demo
> c_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_
> rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal oil_value_nom_GDP_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_GDP_c2_l1 jc_radoil_c1 jc_radoil_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_demo
> c_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_
> rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1_l1 oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2_l1 jc_radoil_c1 jc_radoil_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_de
> moc_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if po
> l_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1 L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2 jc_radoil_c1 jc_radoil_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polit
> y2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, ro
> b cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal L_PC_RESERVES_c1 L_PC_RESERVES_c2 jc_radoil_c1 jc_radoil_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2di
> ff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cl
> uster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1 net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1 jc_radoil_c1 jc_radoil_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_
> l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_
> t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if Side A initia~a                                                                                                                
jc_radoil_c1                1.278***        1.290***        1.325***        1.074***        1.096***        1.524***        1.140***
                          (0.161)         (0.157)         (0.170)         (0.170)         (0.183)         (0.183)         (0.227)   

jc_radoil_c2                0.970***        0.949***        0.884***        0.815***        0.412+          0.752**         1.302***
                          (0.199)         (0.198)         (0.211)         (0.204)         (0.247)         (0.237)         (0.282)   

dyadic trade depen~1        1.402           1.349           1.421           1.127           0.379           1.280          -1.626   
                          (1.264)         (1.306)         (1.283)         (1.205)         (1.403)         (1.690)         (3.319)   

dyadic trade depen~2       -1.603          -1.741          -1.848          -1.697          -0.908          -0.189          -3.549   
                          (2.765)         (2.731)         (2.731)         (2.598)         (2.197)         (2.568)         (3.114)   

institutionalized ~c      -0.0595         -0.0445         -0.0431         -0.0521         -0.0553         -0.0504          0.0201   
                         (0.0388)        (0.0368)        (0.0367)        (0.0372)        (0.0381)        (0.0384)        (0.0462)   

institutionalized ~c       0.0782*         0.0706*         0.0700*         0.0696*         0.0934**        0.0709*        0.00646   
                         (0.0322)        (0.0298)        (0.0301)        (0.0304)        (0.0317)        (0.0313)        (0.0342)   

difference between~t       0.0533***       0.0523***       0.0525***       0.0496***       0.0416***       0.0428***       0.0501***
                        (0.00806)       (0.00814)       (0.00814)       (0.00820)       (0.00868)       (0.00894)        (0.0128)   

Interaction of c1'~r      0.00354         0.00291         0.00282         0.00317         0.00402+        0.00300       -0.000376   
                        (0.00223)       (0.00213)       (0.00213)       (0.00218)       (0.00214)       (0.00213)       (0.00267)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.472***       -1.489***       -1.491***       -1.539***       -1.425***       -1.388**        -2.369***
                          (0.400)         (0.405)         (0.404)         (0.397)         (0.423)         (0.445)         (0.549)   

initiators p(win) ~         0.508**         0.509**         0.513**         0.386+          0.407+          0.397+          0.973***
                          (0.192)         (0.193)         (0.193)         (0.226)         (0.212)         (0.213)         (0.282)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.636***       -0.646***       -0.647***       -0.534**        -0.497**        -0.559**        -0.801***
                          (0.183)         (0.173)         (0.174)         (0.173)         (0.190)         (0.203)         (0.213)   

1 if the two state~         0.692***        0.647***        0.649***        0.657***        0.605**         0.559**         0.503** 
                          (0.189)         (0.164)         (0.163)         (0.163)         (0.185)         (0.196)         (0.192)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.205***       -0.206***       -0.206***       -0.199***       -0.220***       -0.212***       -0.260***
                         (0.0296)        (0.0297)        (0.0297)        (0.0297)        (0.0313)        (0.0337)        (0.0296)   

onset_nonfatal_t1          -0.258***       -0.247***       -0.247***       -0.240***       -0.228***       -0.241***       -0.187***
                         (0.0285)        (0.0269)        (0.0270)        (0.0269)        (0.0328)        (0.0330)        (0.0407)   

onset_nonfatal_t2         0.00879***      0.00822***      0.00820***      0.00788***      0.00754***      0.00818***      0.00555** 
                        (0.00138)       (0.00135)       (0.00135)       (0.00135)       (0.00164)       (0.00165)       (0.00192)   

onset_nonfatal_t3      -0.0000918***   -0.0000848***   -0.0000844***   -0.0000810***   -0.0000780***   -0.0000853***   -0.0000533*  
                      (0.0000185)     (0.0000182)     (0.0000182)     (0.0000182)     (0.0000223)     (0.0000225)     (0.0000245)   

oil_value_nom_P~1_l1                   -0.0000341                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000443)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_P~2_l1                    0.0000251                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000257)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~1_l1                                     -0.00295                                                                   
                                                        (0.00325)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~2_l1                                      0.00376                                                                   
                                                        (0.00349)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~1_l1                                                       0.0206*                                                  
                                                                        (0.00839)                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~2_l1                                                      0.00552                                                   
                                                                        (0.00686)                                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.151**                                 
                                                                                         (0.0465)                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.131**                                 
                                                                                         (0.0470)                                   

per capita version~S                                                                                      -0.0313                   
                                                                                                         (0.0192)                   

per capita version~S                                                                                      0.00336                   
                                                                                                        (0.00347)                   

net_oil_exports~1_l1                                                                                                  -0.00000387   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000624)   

net_oil_exports~2_l1                                                                                                   -0.0000171** 
                                                                                                                     (0.00000568)   

Constant                   -2.027***       -1.999***       -2.007***       -2.298***       -2.381***       -2.072***       -1.477*  
                          (0.458)         (0.455)         (0.456)         (0.467)         (0.520)         (0.530)         (0.607)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                66256           62966           62966           62966           53653           53653           29229   
chi2                       1203.8          1191.4          1217.6          1222.0           966.8           996.2           649.1   
r2_p                        0.175           0.175           0.175           0.177           0.176           0.171           0.202   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. eststo clear

. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-26: OIL AND MID ONSET: DIRECTED DYADS AND THE IMPACT OF REVOLUTIONARY GOVERNMENTS

. eststo: qui logit onset l1.jc_radicalleader_c1 l1.jc_radicalleader_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset c.oil_value_nom_POP_c1_l1##l1.jc_radicalleader_c1 c.oil_value_nom_POP_c2_l1##l1.jc_radicalleader_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dya
> did)
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset c.oil_value_nom_GDP_c1_l1##l1.jc_radicalleader_c1 c.oil_value_nom_GDP_c2_l1##l1.jc_radicalleader_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dya
> did)
(est3 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset c.oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1_l1##l1.jc_radicalleader_c1 c.oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2_l1##l1.jc_radicalleader_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(d
> yadid)
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset c.L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1##l1.jc_radicalleader_c1 c.L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2##l1.jc_radicalleader_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset c.L_PC_RESERVES_c1##l1.jc_radicalleader_c1 c.L_PC_RESERVES_c2##l1.jc_radicalleader_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset c.net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1##l1.jc_radicalleader_c1 c.net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1##l1.jc_radicalleader_c2 `controls_dd' if pol_rel==1, rob c
> luster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t    1 if cc1 i~t   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if cc1 initiated~t                                                                                                                
L.Revolutionary le~r        0.792***                                                                                                
                          (0.101)                                                                                                   

L.Revolutionary le~r        0.697***                                                                                                
                          (0.123)                                                                                                   

dyadic trade depen~1        1.946+          1.446           1.405           1.539           0.360           0.813          -0.744   
                          (1.044)         (1.161)         (1.174)         (1.087)         (1.156)         (1.587)         (2.285)   

dyadic trade depen~2        0.265          -0.517          -0.465           0.106           0.438           0.865          -3.899   
                          (2.400)         (1.912)         (2.092)         (2.334)         (2.093)         (1.958)         (2.672)   

institutionalized ~c      -0.0535+        -0.0318         -0.0326         -0.0433         -0.0353         -0.0356         0.00427   
                         (0.0316)        (0.0307)        (0.0307)        (0.0311)        (0.0329)        (0.0328)        (0.0422)   

institutionalized ~c       0.0719**        0.0643*         0.0666*         0.0622*         0.0889**        0.0703*       -0.00525   
                         (0.0276)        (0.0266)        (0.0265)        (0.0271)        (0.0284)        (0.0282)        (0.0333)   

difference between~t       0.0547***       0.0559***       0.0559***       0.0528***       0.0466***       0.0464***       0.0529***
                        (0.00704)       (0.00705)       (0.00701)       (0.00709)       (0.00758)       (0.00760)        (0.0117)   

Interaction of c1'~r      0.00364*        0.00282         0.00291         0.00317+        0.00358+        0.00293       -0.000472   
                        (0.00185)       (0.00182)       (0.00181)       (0.00185)       (0.00185)       (0.00183)       (0.00252)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.531***       -1.585***       -1.574***       -1.651***       -1.332***       -1.272**        -1.944***
                          (0.387)         (0.394)         (0.395)         (0.380)         (0.375)         (0.405)         (0.537)   

initiators p(win) ~         0.409*          0.428**         0.429**         0.286           0.385*          0.341+          0.826** 
                          (0.161)         (0.163)         (0.163)         (0.187)         (0.183)         (0.180)         (0.302)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.279+         -0.298+         -0.306*         -0.121         0.00510          -0.250          -0.323   
                          (0.158)         (0.154)         (0.154)         (0.160)         (0.161)         (0.162)         (0.235)   

1 if the two state~         0.832***        0.789***        0.784***        0.793***        0.808***        0.735***        0.661***
                          (0.168)         (0.148)         (0.147)         (0.145)         (0.159)         (0.175)         (0.185)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.140***       -0.143***       -0.144***       -0.130***       -0.153***       -0.161***       -0.198***
                         (0.0271)        (0.0267)        (0.0267)        (0.0271)        (0.0270)        (0.0287)        (0.0319)   

onset_t1                   -0.290***       -0.276***       -0.276***       -0.272***       -0.257***       -0.265***       -0.225***
                         (0.0236)        (0.0239)        (0.0238)        (0.0241)        (0.0275)        (0.0276)        (0.0386)   

onset_t2                  0.00923***      0.00843***      0.00844***      0.00837***      0.00787***      0.00818***      0.00619***
                        (0.00119)       (0.00122)       (0.00122)       (0.00123)       (0.00144)       (0.00145)       (0.00179)   

onset_t3               -0.0000901***   -0.0000799***   -0.0000800***   -0.0000804***   -0.0000763***   -0.0000784***   -0.0000532*  
                      (0.0000165)     (0.0000168)     (0.0000167)     (0.0000169)     (0.0000203)     (0.0000204)     (0.0000229)   

oil_value_nom_P~1_l1                   -0.0000112                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000480)                                                                                   

0bL.Revolutionary ~r                            0               0               0               0               0               0   
                                              (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)   

1L.Revolutionary l~r                        0.800***        0.797***        0.715**         0.830***        0.788***        0.219   
                                          (0.110)         (0.116)         (0.229)         (0.152)         (0.126)         (0.198)   

0bL.jc_radicallead~e                            0                                                                                   
                                              (.)                                                                                   

1L.jc_radicalleade~_                     0.000108+                                                                                  
                                      (0.0000655)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_P~2_l1                    0.0000149                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000300)                                                                                   

0bL.Revolutionary ~r                            0               0               0               0               0               0   
                                              (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)   

1L.Revolutionary l~r                        0.628***        0.629***        0.586***        0.720***        0.561***        0.775***
                                          (0.129)         (0.131)         (0.175)         (0.145)         (0.142)         (0.211)   

0bL.jc_radicallead~e                            0                                                                                   
                                              (.)                                                                                   

1L.jc_radicalleade~_                     0.000227**                                                                                 
                                      (0.0000820)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~1_l1                                    -0.000738                                                                   
                                                        (0.00593)                                                                   

0bL.jc_radicallead~e                                            0                                                                   
                                                              (.)                                                                   

1L.jc_radicalleade~_                                      0.00517                                                                   
                                                        (0.00578)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~2_l1                                      0.00278                                                                   
                                                        (0.00491)                                                                   

0bL.jc_radicallead~e                                            0                                                                   
                                                              (.)                                                                   

1L.jc_radicalleade~_                                      0.00756                                                                   
                                                        (0.00561)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~1_l1                                                       0.0206*                                                  
                                                                        (0.00833)                                                   

0bL.jc_radicallead~e                                                            0                                                   
                                                                              (.)                                                   

1L.jc_radicalleade~_                                                      0.00564                                                   
                                                                         (0.0116)                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~2_l1                                                      0.00488                                                   
                                                                        (0.00655)                                                   

0bL.jc_radicallead~e                                                            0                                                   
                                                                              (.)                                                   

1L.jc_radicalleade~_                                                      0.00599                                                   
                                                                         (0.0107)                                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.165***                                
                                                                                         (0.0478)                                   

0bL.jc_radicallead~E                                                                            0                                   
                                                                                              (.)                                   

1L.jc_radicalleade~S                                                                      0.00333                                   
                                                                                         (0.0660)                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.192***                                
                                                                                         (0.0423)                                   

0bL.jc_radicallead~E                                                                            0                                   
                                                                                              (.)                                   

1L.jc_radicalleade~S                                                                      -0.0865                                   
                                                                                         (0.0898)                                   

per capita version~S                                                                                      -0.0407+                  
                                                                                                         (0.0220)                   

0bL.jc_radicallead~E                                                                                            0                   
                                                                                                              (.)                   

1L.jc_radicalleade~R                                                                                        0.144***                
                                                                                                         (0.0389)                   

per capita version~S                                                                                      0.00737**                 
                                                                                                        (0.00253)                   

0bL.jc_radicallead~E                                                                                            0                   
                                                                                                              (.)                   

1L.jc_radicalleade~R                                                                                        0.128*                  
                                                                                                         (0.0509)                   

net_oil_exports~1_l1                                                                                                   -0.0000136*  
                                                                                                                     (0.00000677)   

0bL.jc_radicallead~e                                                                                                            0   
                                                                                                                              (.)   

1L.jc_radicalleade~x                                                                                                    0.0000480** 
                                                                                                                      (0.0000158)   

net_oil_exports~2_l1                                                                                                   -0.0000186** 
                                                                                                                     (0.00000605)   

0bL.jc_radicallead~e                                                                                                            0   
                                                                                                                              (.)   

1L.jc_radicalleade~x                                                                                                    0.0000192   
                                                                                                                      (0.0000185)   

Constant                   -2.066***       -2.044***       -2.056***       -2.352***       -2.841***       -2.260***       -1.714** 
                          (0.440)         (0.444)         (0.446)         (0.472)         (0.499)         (0.488)         (0.623)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                66562           63270           63270           63270           53880           53880           29352   
chi2                       1741.2          1788.2          1870.5          1881.3          1613.2          1515.2           818.3   
r2_p                        0.218           0.222           0.222           0.224           0.227           0.219           0.233   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-27: OIL AND MID ONSET: DIRECTED DYADS AND THE IMPACT OF REVOLUTIONARY GOVERNMENTS ON THE OUTBREAK OF NON-FATAL DISPUTES

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal l1.jc_radicalleader_c1 l1.jc_radicalleader_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polit
> y2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est1 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal c.oil_value_nom_POP_c1_l1##l1.jc_radicalleader_c1 c.oil_value_nom_POP_c2_l1##l1.jc_radicalleader_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictrade
> dep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2
>  onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal c.oil_value_nom_GDP_c1_l1##l1.jc_radicalleader_c1 c.oil_value_nom_GDP_c2_l1##l1.jc_radicalleader_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictrade
> dep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2
>  onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est3 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal c.oil_value_nom_LOG1_c1_l1##l1.jc_radicalleader_c1 c.oil_value_nom_LOG1_c2_l1##l1.jc_radicalleader_c2  c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictr
> adedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal
> _t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal c.L_RESERVES_LOG1_c1##l1.jc_radicalleader_c1 c.L_RESERVES_LOG1_c2##l1.jc_radicalleader_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_
> democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_non
> fatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est5 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal c.L_PC_RESERVES_c1##l1.jc_radicalleader_c1 c.L_PC_RESERVES_c2##l1.jc_radicalleader_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_dyadictradedep_l1 c1_demo
> c_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_nonfatal_t2 onset_nonfata
> l_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est6 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit onset_nonfatal c.net_oil_exports_value2_c1_l1##l1.jc_radicalleader_c1 c.net_oil_exports_value2_c2_l1##l1.jc_radicalleader_c2 c1_dyadictradedep_l1 c2_d
> yadictradedep_l1 c1_democ_l1 c2_democ_l1 polity2diff_l1 c1_polity2Xdiff_l1 balanceofforce_l1 c1_powerratio_l1 bothminor contigland ln_distance onset_nonfatal_t1 onset_n
> onfatal_t2 onset_nonfatal_t3 if pol_rel==1, rob cluster(dyadid)
(est7 stored)

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a    1 if Side ~a   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if Side A initia~a                                                                                                                
L.Revolutionary le~r        0.835***                                                                                                
                          (0.116)                                                                                                   

L.Revolutionary le~r        0.662***                                                                                                
                          (0.137)                                                                                                   

dyadic trade depen~1        2.475*          1.805           1.788           2.063+          0.873           1.466          -0.927   
                          (1.014)         (1.184)         (1.186)         (1.056)         (1.215)         (1.607)         (3.078)   

dyadic trade depen~2       -0.191          -0.987          -1.005          -0.363          -0.230           0.367          -2.546   
                          (2.235)         (2.088)         (2.205)         (2.181)         (1.926)         (2.044)         (2.537)   

institutionalized ~c      -0.0520         -0.0289         -0.0315         -0.0433         -0.0463         -0.0490          0.0331   
                         (0.0385)        (0.0372)        (0.0372)        (0.0371)        (0.0380)        (0.0382)        (0.0452)   

institutionalized ~c       0.0853**        0.0781*         0.0810**        0.0757*          0.115***       0.0937**       0.00144   
                         (0.0327)        (0.0311)        (0.0310)        (0.0315)        (0.0326)        (0.0324)        (0.0345)   

difference between~t       0.0509***       0.0518***       0.0514***       0.0476***       0.0407***       0.0415***       0.0558***
                        (0.00801)       (0.00800)       (0.00789)       (0.00798)       (0.00852)       (0.00864)        (0.0132)   

Interaction of c1'~r      0.00369+        0.00286         0.00302         0.00333         0.00434*        0.00358+       -0.00137   
                        (0.00220)       (0.00215)       (0.00213)       (0.00218)       (0.00210)       (0.00210)       (0.00267)   

dyad's larger stat~e       -1.528***       -1.546***       -1.517***       -1.572***       -1.354**        -1.369**        -2.387***
                          (0.400)         (0.409)         (0.409)         (0.393)         (0.428)         (0.457)         (0.542)   

initiators p(win) ~         0.479**         0.480*          0.489**         0.331           0.412+          0.444*          0.933** 
                          (0.185)         (0.188)         (0.188)         (0.220)         (0.213)         (0.209)         (0.304)   

1 if both states i~m       -0.462**        -0.523**        -0.531**        -0.265          -0.285          -0.537**        -0.511*  
                          (0.177)         (0.171)         (0.171)         (0.174)         (0.191)         (0.191)         (0.241)   

1 if the two state~         0.672***        0.652***        0.637***        0.648***        0.621***        0.561**         0.494*  
                          (0.185)         (0.163)         (0.162)         (0.162)         (0.178)         (0.196)         (0.194)   

log distance betwe~2       -0.188***       -0.193***       -0.195***       -0.175***       -0.206***       -0.209***       -0.239***
                         (0.0279)        (0.0280)        (0.0279)        (0.0289)        (0.0291)        (0.0307)        (0.0302)   

onset_nonfatal_t1          -0.262***       -0.245***       -0.245***       -0.235***       -0.222***       -0.235***       -0.182***
                         (0.0290)        (0.0278)        (0.0277)        (0.0273)        (0.0327)        (0.0337)        (0.0409)   

onset_nonfatal_t2         0.00875***      0.00783***      0.00786***      0.00758***      0.00715***      0.00757***      0.00524** 
                        (0.00140)       (0.00137)       (0.00136)       (0.00136)       (0.00164)       (0.00168)       (0.00189)   

onset_nonfatal_t3      -0.0000885***   -0.0000772***   -0.0000773***   -0.0000763***   -0.0000719**    -0.0000745***   -0.0000480*  
                      (0.0000184)     (0.0000182)     (0.0000181)     (0.0000181)     (0.0000222)     (0.0000226)     (0.0000240)   

oil_value_nom_P~1_l1                   -0.0000187                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000505)                                                                                   

0bL.Revolutionary ~r                            0               0               0               0               0               0   
                                              (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)   

1L.Revolutionary l~r                        0.823***        0.813***        0.401           0.660***        0.761***        0.279   
                                          (0.127)         (0.132)         (0.300)         (0.197)         (0.153)         (0.229)   

0bL.jc_radicallead~e                            0                                                                                   
                                              (.)                                                                                   

1L.jc_radicalleade~_                     0.000179*                                                                                  
                                      (0.0000710)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_P~2_l1                    0.0000417                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000303)                                                                                   

0bL.Revolutionary ~r                            0               0               0               0               0               0   
                                              (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)             (.)   

1L.Revolutionary l~r                        0.558***        0.555***        0.378           0.738***        0.578***        0.634** 
                                          (0.144)         (0.146)         (0.232)         (0.172)         (0.161)         (0.220)   

0bL.jc_radicallead~e                            0                                                                                   
                                              (.)                                                                                   

1L.jc_radicalleade~_                     0.000250**                                                                                 
                                      (0.0000824)                                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~1_l1                                     -0.00142                                                                   
                                                        (0.00726)                                                                   

0bL.jc_radicallead~e                                            0                                                                   
                                                              (.)                                                                   

1L.jc_radicalleade~_                                      0.00871                                                                   
                                                        (0.00696)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_G~2_l1                                      0.00403                                                                   
                                                        (0.00533)                                                                   

0bL.jc_radicallead~e                                            0                                                                   
                                                              (.)                                                                   

1L.jc_radicalleade~_                                      0.00856                                                                   
                                                        (0.00576)                                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~1_l1                                                       0.0225*                                                  
                                                                        (0.00882)                                                   

0bL.jc_radicallead~e                                                            0                                                   
                                                                              (.)                                                   

1L.jc_radicalleade~_                                                       0.0262+                                                  
                                                                         (0.0152)                                                   

oil_value_nom_L~2_l1                                                      0.00779                                                   
                                                                        (0.00738)                                                   

0bL.jc_radicallead~e                                                            0                                                   
                                                                              (.)                                                   

1L.jc_radicalleade~_                                                       0.0161                                                   
                                                                         (0.0134)                                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.172**                                 
                                                                                         (0.0598)                                   

0bL.jc_radicallead~E                                                                            0                                   
                                                                                              (.)                                   

1L.jc_radicalleade~S                                                                        0.123                                   
                                                                                         (0.0833)                                   

Log of value of oi~                                                                         0.174***                                
                                                                                         (0.0489)                                   

0bL.jc_radicallead~E                                                                            0                                   
                                                                                              (.)                                   

1L.jc_radicalleade~S                                                                      -0.0663                                   
                                                                                          (0.104)                                   

per capita version~S                                                                                      -0.0290                   
                                                                                                         (0.0190)                   

0bL.jc_radicallead~E                                                                                            0                   
                                                                                                              (.)                   

1L.jc_radicalleade~R                                                                                        0.172***                
                                                                                                         (0.0417)                   

per capita version~S                                                                                      0.00837*                  
                                                                                                        (0.00354)                   

0bL.jc_radicallead~E                                                                                            0                   
                                                                                                              (.)                   

1L.jc_radicalleade~R                                                                                        0.126*                  
                                                                                                         (0.0539)                   

net_oil_exports~1_l1                                                                                                  -0.00000704   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000686)   

0bL.jc_radicallead~e                                                                                                            0   
                                                                                                                              (.)   

1L.jc_radicalleade~x                                                                                                    0.0000543** 
                                                                                                                      (0.0000186)   

net_oil_exports~2_l1                                                                                                   -0.0000183** 
                                                                                                                     (0.00000593)   

0bL.jc_radicallead~e                                                                                                            0   
                                                                                                                              (.)   

1L.jc_radicalleade~x                                                                                                    0.0000366+  
                                                                                                                      (0.0000192)   

Constant                   -2.299***       -2.303***       -2.312***       -2.771***       -3.014***       -2.390***       -1.859** 
                          (0.458)         (0.464)         (0.466)         (0.488)         (0.534)         (0.537)         (0.626)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                66264           62974           62974           62974           53661           53661           29229   
chi2                       1114.5          1171.4          1253.7          1291.9          1027.7          1050.6           613.0   
r2_p                        0.172           0.174           0.174           0.179           0.180           0.169           0.200   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. ******************

. 
. *** II. MONADS ***

. 
. ******************

. 
. use replication_fpa_StrueverWegenast_m_short.dta, clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-28: OIL AND MID ONSET: CONFLICT INVOLVEMENT

. 
. eststo: qui logit midonset l1.democ_prie l1.prie_capabilityratio_3yrmavg l1.tradeopenness total majpow midonset_peaceyrs_t1 midonset_peaceyrs_t2 midonset_peaceyrs_t3, r
>  cluster(ccode)
(est1 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit midonset l1.oil_value_nom_POP l1.democ_prie l1.prie_capabilityratio_3yrmavg l1.tradeopenness total majpow midonset_peaceyrs_t1 midonset_peaceyrs_t2 mi
> donset_peaceyrs_t3, r cluster(ccode)
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit midonset l1.oil_value_nom_GDP l1.democ_prie l1.prie_capabilityratio_3yrmavg l1.tradeopenness total majpow midonset_peaceyrs_t1 midonset_peaceyrs_t2 mi
> donset_peaceyrs_t3, r cluster(ccode)
(est3 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit midonset l1.oil_value_nom_LOG1 l1.democ_prie l1.prie_capabilityratio_3yrmavg l1.tradeopenness total majpow midonset_peaceyrs_t1 midonset_peaceyrs_t2 m
> idonset_peaceyrs_t3, r cluster(ccode)
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit midonset L_RESERVES_LOG1 l1.democ_prie l1.prie_capabilityratio_3yrmavg l1.tradeopenness total majpow midonset_peaceyrs_t1 midonset_peaceyrs_t2 midonse
> t_peaceyrs_t3, r cluster(ccode)
(est5 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit midonset L_PC_RESERVES l1.democ_prie l1.prie_capabilityratio_3yrmavg l1.tradeopenness total majpow midonset_peaceyrs_t1 midonset_peaceyrs_t2 midonset_
> peaceyrs_t3, r cluster(ccode)
(est6 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit midonset net_oil_exports_value2 l1.democ_prie l1.prie_capabilityratio_3yrmavg l1.tradeopenness total majpow midonset_peaceyrs_t1 midonset_peaceyrs_t2 
> midonset_peaceyrs_t3, r cluster(ccode)
(est7 stored)

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if the c~v    1 if the c~v    1 if the c~v    1 if the c~v    1 if the c~v    1 if the c~v    1 if the c~v   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if the country h~v                                                                                                                
L.Average democrac~       -0.0244**       -0.0183+        -0.0164+        -0.0208*        -0.0192+        -0.0175+        -0.0158   
                        (0.00888)       (0.00937)       (0.00953)       (0.00957)        (0.0103)        (0.0103)        (0.0124)   

L.prie_capabilityr~g        0.123           0.124           0.125           0.117           0.135+          0.147+         0.0300   
                         (0.0779)        (0.0791)        (0.0803)        (0.0734)        (0.0768)        (0.0789)        (0.0599)   

L.Total trade as p~P     -0.00130+       -0.00130        -0.00154        -0.00126       -0.000924       -0.000717        -0.00115   
                       (0.000789)      (0.000817)      (0.000953)      (0.000814)      (0.000750)      (0.000710)      (0.000832)   

Total number of di~t       0.0853***       0.0904***       0.0860***       0.0762***       0.0693***       0.0835***       0.0836** 
                         (0.0178)        (0.0182)        (0.0186)        (0.0175)        (0.0199)        (0.0200)        (0.0272)   

Major power status~e        0.454           0.429           0.467           0.420           0.299           0.193           1.340***
                          (0.578)         (0.589)         (0.588)         (0.559)         (0.504)         (0.561)         (0.335)   

midonset_peaceyrs_t1       -0.358***       -0.359***       -0.357***       -0.355***       -0.373***       -0.381***       -0.298***
                         (0.0307)        (0.0316)        (0.0309)        (0.0314)        (0.0383)        (0.0381)        (0.0370)   

midonset_peaceyrs_t2       0.0156***       0.0158***       0.0155***       0.0156***       0.0182***       0.0188***       0.0115***
                        (0.00262)       (0.00283)       (0.00272)       (0.00276)       (0.00361)       (0.00363)       (0.00254)   

midonset_peaceyrs_t3    -0.000173**     -0.000178**     -0.000173**     -0.000175**     -0.000252**     -0.000265**     -0.000110*  
                      (0.0000563)     (0.0000616)     (0.0000591)     (0.0000597)     (0.0000828)     (0.0000835)     (0.0000458)   

L.Per capita value~i                    0.0000231                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000289)                                                                                   

L.Value of oil pro~n                                      0.00727+                                                                  
                                                        (0.00417)                                                                   

L.Log of value of ~i                                                       0.0121*                                                  
                                                                        (0.00566)                                                   

Log of volume of o~l                                                                       0.0395*                                  
                                                                                         (0.0194)                                   

per capita version~S                                                                                      0.00362+                  
                                                                                                        (0.00204)                   

Net oil exports in~(                                                                                                  -0.00000655   
                                                                                                                     (0.00000858)   

Constant                   -0.573***       -0.606***       -0.604***       -0.645***       -0.552***       -0.574***       -0.596** 
                          (0.137)         (0.136)         (0.137)         (0.139)         (0.147)         (0.151)         (0.203)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                 6606            5838            5838            5838            4839            4834            2459   
chi2                        444.1           453.8           442.8           472.1           352.6           350.8           357.1   
r2_p                        0.164           0.166           0.167           0.168           0.159           0.156           0.149   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-29: OIL AND MID ONSET: AGGRESSOR MIDS (SIDE A)

. 
. eststo: qui logit midonset_sidea l1.democ_prie l1.prie_capabilityratio_3yrmavg l1.tradeopenness total majpow midonset_sidea_peaceyrs_t1 midonset_sidea_peaceyrs_t2 midon
> set_sidea_peaceyrs_t3, r cluster(ccode)
(est1 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit midonset_sidea l1.oil_value_nom_POP l1.democ_prie l1.prie_capabilityratio_3yrmavg l1.tradeopenness total majpow midonset_sidea_peaceyrs_t1 midonset_si
> dea_peaceyrs_t2 midonset_sidea_peaceyrs_t3, r cluster(ccode)
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit midonset_sidea l1.oil_value_nom_GDP l1.democ_prie l1.prie_capabilityratio_3yrmavg l1.tradeopenness total majpow midonset_sidea_peaceyrs_t1 midonset_si
> dea_peaceyrs_t2 midonset_sidea_peaceyrs_t3, r cluster(ccode)
(est3 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit midonset_sidea l1.oil_value_nom_LOG1 l1.democ_prie l1.prie_capabilityratio_3yrmavg l1.tradeopenness total majpow midonset_sidea_peaceyrs_t1 midonset_s
> idea_peaceyrs_t2 midonset_sidea_peaceyrs_t3, r cluster(ccode)
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit midonset_sidea L_RESERVES_LOG1 l1.democ_prie l1.prie_capabilityratio_3yrmavg l1.tradeopenness total majpow midonset_sidea_peaceyrs_t1 midonset_sidea_p
> eaceyrs_t2 midonset_sidea_peaceyrs_t3, r cluster(ccode)
(est5 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit midonset_sidea L_PC_RESERVES l1.democ_prie l1.prie_capabilityratio_3yrmavg l1.tradeopenness total majpow midonset_sidea_peaceyrs_t1 midonset_sidea_pea
> ceyrs_t2 midonset_sidea_peaceyrs_t3, r cluster(ccode)
(est6 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit midonset_sidea net_oil_exports_value2 l1.democ_prie l1.prie_capabilityratio_3yrmavg l1.tradeopenness total majpow midonset_sidea_peaceyrs_t1 midonset_
> sidea_peaceyrs_t2 midonset_sidea_peaceyrs_t3, r cluster(ccode)
(est7 stored)

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if the c~v    1 if the c~v    1 if the c~v    1 if the c~v    1 if the c~v    1 if the c~v    1 if the c~v   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if the country h~v                                                                                                                
L.Average democrac~       -0.0183+        -0.0121        -0.00952         -0.0146         -0.0188         -0.0171        -0.00606   
                         (0.0104)        (0.0112)        (0.0114)        (0.0115)        (0.0115)        (0.0114)        (0.0141)   

L.prie_capabilityr~g       0.0562*         0.0585*         0.0570*         0.0516+         0.0583+         0.0731*         0.0271   
                         (0.0274)        (0.0289)        (0.0284)        (0.0267)        (0.0309)        (0.0318)        (0.0497)   

L.Total trade as p~P     -0.00201+       -0.00176+       -0.00272+       -0.00209        -0.00211        -0.00144        -0.00103*  
                        (0.00110)       (0.00104)       (0.00147)       (0.00130)       (0.00168)       (0.00149)      (0.000482)   

Total number of di~t       0.0874***       0.0970***       0.0916***       0.0757***       0.0761**        0.0931***       0.0829*  
                         (0.0216)        (0.0228)        (0.0233)        (0.0216)        (0.0248)        (0.0249)        (0.0326)   

Major power status~e        0.314           0.279           0.342           0.286           0.161        -0.00373           1.032***
                          (0.256)         (0.272)         (0.269)         (0.255)         (0.218)         (0.253)         (0.296)   

midonset_sidea_pea~1       -0.308***       -0.290***       -0.289***       -0.283***       -0.306***       -0.314***       -0.230***
                         (0.0256)        (0.0265)        (0.0262)        (0.0267)        (0.0303)        (0.0313)        (0.0350)   

midonset_sidea_pea~2       0.0118***       0.0109***       0.0108***       0.0105***       0.0129***       0.0134***      0.00741***
                        (0.00166)       (0.00168)       (0.00167)       (0.00169)       (0.00204)       (0.00209)       (0.00202)   

midonset_sidea_pea~3    -0.000126***    -0.000115***    -0.000114***    -0.000109***    -0.000161***    -0.000169***   -0.0000670*  
                      (0.0000272)     (0.0000270)     (0.0000271)     (0.0000275)     (0.0000372)     (0.0000378)     (0.0000298)   

L.Per capita value~i                  -0.00000506                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000329)                                                                                   

L.Value of oil pro~n                                      0.00652                                                                   
                                                        (0.00467)                                                                   

L.Log of value of ~i                                                       0.0178**                                                 
                                                                        (0.00681)                                                   

Log of volume of o~l                                                                       0.0465+                                  
                                                                                         (0.0241)                                   

per capita version~S                                                                                    -0.000620                   
                                                                                                        (0.00372)                   

Net oil exports in~(                                                                                                 -0.000000445   
                                                                                                                      (0.0000104)   

Constant                   -1.073***       -1.179***       -1.161***       -1.256***       -1.126***       -1.151***       -1.172***
                          (0.168)         (0.177)         (0.178)         (0.186)         (0.184)         (0.187)         (0.251)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                 6606            5838            5838            5838            4839            4834            2459   
chi2                        694.4           601.1           627.0           707.9           653.6           425.8           334.1   
r2_p                        0.163           0.164           0.165           0.167           0.163           0.158           0.162   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *** TABLE S-30: OIL AND MID ONSET: DEFENDER MIDS (SIDE B)

. 
. eststo: qui logit midonset_sideb l1.democ_prie l1.prie_capabilityratio_3yrmavg l1.tradeopenness total majpow midonset_sideb_peaceyrs_t1 midonset_sideb_peaceyrs_t2 midon
> set_sideb_peaceyrs_t3, r cluster(ccode)
(est1 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit midonset_sideb l1.oil_value_nom_POP l1.democ_prie l1.prie_capabilityratio_3yrmavg l1.tradeopenness total majpow midonset_sideb_peaceyrs_t1 midonset_si
> deb_peaceyrs_t2 midonset_sideb_peaceyrs_t3, r cluster(ccode)
(est2 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit midonset_sideb l1.oil_value_nom_GDP l1.democ_prie l1.prie_capabilityratio_3yrmavg l1.tradeopenness total majpow midonset_sideb_peaceyrs_t1 midonset_si
> deb_peaceyrs_t2 midonset_sideb_peaceyrs_t3, r cluster(ccode)
(est3 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit midonset_sideb l1.oil_value_nom_LOG1 l1.democ_prie l1.prie_capabilityratio_3yrmavg l1.tradeopenness total majpow midonset_sideb_peaceyrs_t1 midonset_s
> ideb_peaceyrs_t2 midonset_sideb_peaceyrs_t3, r cluster(ccode)
(est4 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit midonset_sideb L_RESERVES_LOG1 l1.democ_prie l1.prie_capabilityratio_3yrmavg l1.tradeopenness total majpow midonset_sideb_peaceyrs_t1 midonset_sideb_p
> eaceyrs_t2 midonset_sideb_peaceyrs_t3, r cluster(ccode)
(est5 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit midonset_sideb L_PC_RESERVES l1.democ_prie l1.prie_capabilityratio_3yrmavg l1.tradeopenness total majpow midonset_sideb_peaceyrs_t1 midonset_sideb_pea
> ceyrs_t2 midonset_sideb_peaceyrs_t3, r cluster(ccode)
(est6 stored)

. 
. eststo: qui logit midonset_sideb net_oil_exports_value2 l1.democ_prie l1.prie_capabilityratio_3yrmavg l1.tradeopenness total majpow midonset_sideb_peaceyrs_t1 midonset_
> sideb_peaceyrs_t2 midonset_sideb_peaceyrs_t3, r cluster(ccode)
(est7 stored)

. 
. esttab ,se scalars(N chi2 r2_p) replace label  mtitles() star(+ 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001) 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)             (7)   
                     1 if the c~v    1 if the c~v    1 if the c~v    1 if the c~v    1 if the c~v    1 if the c~v    1 if the c~v   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 if the country h~v                                                                                                                
L.Average democrac~       -0.0194*        -0.0162         -0.0150         -0.0183+        -0.0205+        -0.0193+        -0.0115   
                        (0.00950)        (0.0103)        (0.0104)        (0.0104)        (0.0117)        (0.0116)        (0.0131)   

L.prie_capabilityr~g       0.0787+         0.0780+         0.0777+         0.0747+         0.0894*         0.0976*         0.0237   
                         (0.0437)        (0.0432)        (0.0430)        (0.0422)        (0.0413)        (0.0429)        (0.0442)   

L.Total trade as p~P    -0.000802       -0.000783       -0.000885       -0.000699       -0.000429       -0.000395       -0.000474   
                       (0.000595)      (0.000564)      (0.000632)      (0.000540)      (0.000530)      (0.000539)      (0.000461)   

Total number of di~t       0.0742***       0.0709***       0.0681***       0.0617***       0.0526**        0.0623***       0.0780***
                         (0.0165)        (0.0172)        (0.0176)        (0.0176)        (0.0178)        (0.0185)        (0.0211)   

Major power status~e        0.543           0.549           0.577           0.526           0.402           0.342           0.696   
                          (0.459)         (0.456)         (0.453)         (0.443)         (0.376)         (0.423)         (0.501)   

midonset_sideb_pea~1       -0.254***       -0.252***       -0.251***       -0.251***       -0.281***       -0.281***       -0.166***
                         (0.0272)        (0.0265)        (0.0266)        (0.0267)        (0.0349)        (0.0347)        (0.0332)   

midonset_sideb_pea~2      0.00990***      0.00985***      0.00982***      0.00984***       0.0132***       0.0132***      0.00516*  
                        (0.00181)       (0.00182)       (0.00182)       (0.00183)       (0.00271)       (0.00273)       (0.00207)   

midonset_sideb_pea~3    -0.000108***    -0.000109***    -0.000108***    -0.000109***    -0.000184***    -0.000184***   -0.0000473   
                      (0.0000297)     (0.0000302)     (0.0000301)     (0.0000304)     (0.0000524)     (0.0000533)     (0.0000323)   

L.Per capita value~i                    0.0000319                                                                                   
                                      (0.0000273)                                                                                   

L.Value of oil pro~n                                      0.00572                                                                   
                                                        (0.00355)                                                                   

L.Log of value of ~i                                                      0.00875                                                   
                                                                        (0.00556)                                                   

Log of volume of o~l                                                                       0.0276                                   
                                                                                         (0.0172)                                   

per capita version~S                                                                                      0.00743***                
                                                                                                        (0.00147)                   

Net oil exports in~(                                                                                                   -0.0000195*  
                                                                                                                     (0.00000877)   

Constant                   -1.166***       -1.138***       -1.138***       -1.165***       -1.056***       -1.078***       -1.302***
                          (0.155)         (0.152)         (0.153)         (0.152)         (0.160)         (0.165)         (0.185)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                 6606            5838            5838            5838            4839            4834            2459   
chi2                        296.7           299.8           309.7           312.0           262.5           344.0           138.6   
r2_p                        0.132           0.134           0.134           0.134           0.131           0.130           0.105   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
+ p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. eststo clear

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. log off
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  H:\Arbeit\giga\00_publikationen\23 FPA_Hard power of oil\replication_fpa__StrueverWegenast.log
  log type:  text
 paused on:  27 May 2015, 19:51:43
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
